5229 Saginaw Ave · Jacksonville, FL 32210

$219,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1966 Est $216k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Back on the market due to buyer financing falling through no fault of the sellers! This one is just plain cute. .. and packed with upgrades! This 4 bedroom 2 bath home has been refreshed from top to bottom with brand new flooring, fresh interior and exterior paint, upgraded bathrooms and plumbing, plus updated light fixtures and outlets throughout, along with new appliances. It's the kind of home that feels easy the second you walk in. But wait until you step outside. .. The detached garage is a dream setup with AC and an overhead crane hoist, perfect for a workshop, hobbies, or extra storage. The fully fenced backyard gives you space to spread out, and the large entertainment pavilion wit

Key facts

• Detached garage
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1966

Tags

• DETACHED GARAGE
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• LARGE ENTERTAINMENT PAVILION
• SCREENED IN BACK PORCH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Detached garage; 2 garage spaces; 2 carport spaces; Carport
• Security: Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detector
• Utilities: Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered rear porch; Back yard fencing; Shed(s); Workshop; Asphalt road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (single-level)
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heat; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast nook; Ceiling fans; Pantry; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $64 ($771/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (21.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Timucuan Elementary School (math 34% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,951 of 2,144 statewide, top 91%, 491 students, 77% FRL); Joseph Stilwell Middle School (math 31% / reading 33%, grade F, #448 of 571 statewide, top 79%, 612 students, 68% FRL); Westside High School (math 26% / reading 19%, grade F, #539 of 667 statewide, top 81%, 1,583 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 49% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Duval average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 441 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,092 (21.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.26%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $216,216
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5243 Seaboard Ave	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,008 (-8%)	1mo	$225,000	$223	84
5105 Seaboard Ave	0.16mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,104 (+1%)	0mo	$165,000	$149	83
5257 Acoma Ave	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,104 (+1%)	5mo	$218,000	$197	83
5163 Seaboard Ave	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,144 (+5%)	3mo	$227,000	$198	81
5216 Timawatha Ave	0.03mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,203 (+10%)	4mo	$199,990	$166	72
5639 Minocqua St	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,183 (+8%)	17mo	$229,000	$194	68
5325 Seaboard Ave	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,008 (-8%)	19mo	$215,000	$213	62
5819 110th St	0.64mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,150 (+5%)	7mo	$175,000	$152	46
5174 Acre Estates Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,180 (+8%)	13mo	$260,000	$220	43
6043 Transylvania Ave	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,209 (+11%)	15mo	$249,900	$207	34
6048 Transylvania Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	943 (-14%)	16mo	$201,000	$213	27
5967 Oaklane Dr	0.71mi	3/1.0 (-1)	932 (-15%)	21mo	$150,000	$161	16

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-33,033
• Equity at exit: $32,654

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-30,095
• Equity at exit: $18,935

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32210

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 441
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,721 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $667/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,640

Max offer price $219,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $188	-5% $126	+0% $64	+5% $2	+10% $-60
Rent	-10% $-72	-5% $-4	+0% $64	+5% $132	+10% $200
Rate	-1.0pp $175	-0.5pp $120	base $64	+0.5pp $7	+1.0pp $-50

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5664 Minocqua St Jacksonville, FL	4.0	1.5	1023	$1,545	$1.51	5d	1	0.12mi
5958 Creekside Crossing Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1404	$1,895	$1.35	12d	1	0.43mi
5984 Creekside Crossing Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1404	$1,695	$1.21	16d	1	0.45mi
5988 Creekside Crossing Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1404	$1,850	$1.32	16d	1	0.45mi
5058 Acre Estates Dr W Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,825	$1.30	4d	1	0.51mi
4800 Ortega Farms Blvd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0	880	$1,465	$1.66	12d	9	0.62mi
4800 Ortega Farms Blvd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0	880	$1,435	$1.63	4d	10	0.62mi
5327 Timuquana Rd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,599	$1.68	3d	27	0.63mi
4455 Confederate Point Rd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1045	$1,599	$1.53	3d	19	0.81mi
4375 Confederate Point Rd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1125	$1,536	$1.37	4d	22	0.92mi
4804 Ducheneau Dr Unit 26 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1182	$1,635	$1.38	25d	1	0.94mi
6325 Delacy Rd Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1286	$1,680	$1.31	6d	1	0.98mi
5983 Ortega Lake Dr Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,950	$1.39	25d	1	1.01mi
4301 Confederate Point Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1042	$1,606	$1.54	4d	39	1.01mi
6379 Delacy Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1296	$1,495	$1.15	25d	1	1.04mi
6136 Blanding Blvd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1030	$2,020	$1.96	3d	9	1.07mi
5939 Pueblo Ct Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1288	$1,495	$1.16	9d	1	1.09mi
5933 Jammes Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	3.0	1071	$1,900	$1.77	25d	1	1.18mi
6511 Burgundy Rd S Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1361	$1,685	$1.24	5d	1	1.21mi
5931 Wilmar Rd Jacksonville, FL	4.0	1.0	706	$1,095	$1.55	25d	1	1.23mi
6236 Autlan Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1299	$1,555	$1.20	6d	1	1.29mi
6221 Alfredo Dr W Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1133	$1,710	$1.51	5d	1	1.30mi
4102 Angol Pl Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,650	$1.12	6d	1	1.31mi
4610 Cedarwood Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1381	$1,950	$1.41	19d	1	1.32mi
4020 Angol Pl Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1266	$1,845	$1.46	19d	1	1.33mi
6063 Maggies Cir #110 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,350	$1.01	6d	1	1.37mi
6063 Maggies Cir Jacksonville, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1121	$1,350	$1.20	18d	2	1.37mi
4503 Anvers Blvd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1084	$1,595	$1.47	25d	1	1.39mi
6051 Maggies Cir #107 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,400	$1.05	23d	1	1.40mi
6112 Maggies Cir #108 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,375	$1.03	25d	1	1.44mi
6111 Maggies Cir #107 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,350	$1.01	25d	1	1.45mi
6560 Barmer Dr S Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1370	$1,750	$1.28	3d	1	1.46mi
6094 Maggies Cir #107 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,425	$1.07	16d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $219,000 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $219,000 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   status $229,000 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-05-20
    status Pending
11. 2026-05-03
    listed $229,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $667 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,818 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,150/yr (+$96/mo · 172.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,651
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$667
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,652
• − Management: −$1,652
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable loss: −$3,054
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$733
• After-tax cash flow: $1,503/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 65,729
• Household income: $61,050
• Rent vs Own: 42.6% rent · 57.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 3605.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Black 38% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Hispanic 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -314.81%
• Current HPI: 281.2688
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.11%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-05-03 Listed $229,000 realMLS

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $667 · +40.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.