6829 Caywood Ct #1706 · Citrus Heights, CA 95621

$260,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,100 sqft · Manufactured · 57 Days on market

Built 1985 $124/sqft · 57% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this move-in ready home tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac in Citrus Heights, located within a well-maintained 55+ community. Vaulted ceilings and abundant natural light create an open, airy living space that feels larger than expected and immediately inviting. Recent improvements include a brand-new roof (2025) and interior updates completed in 2022, giving the home a fresh, clean feel throughout. The kitchen offers ample cabinetry and a comfortable dining area, making it both functional and easy to enjoy day-to-day. Step outside to a spacious yard featuring both covered and open patio areas ideal for relaxing, entertaining, or simply enjoying the outdoors. The cul-de-sac locatio

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Open patio
• Covered patio

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• SPACIOUS YARD
• COVERED PATIO
• OPEN PATIO
• MINIMAL THROUGH TRAFFIC
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $589 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $260k).
• Recommended offer: $252k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 3.4% in Citrus Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#614 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime D-, amenities F.
• San Juan Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #138 of 517 in CA (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 210 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $252,200 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.71%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $165,997
• List price: $260,000
• Delta: 56.63%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6181 Oak Lakes Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,896 (-10%)	5mo	$192,500	$102	67
6887 Lake Cove Ln	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,968 (-6%)	17mo	$268,550	$136	65
6104 Meiggs Ct	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,856 (-12%)	3mo	$199,000	$107	64
6946 Wake Forest Ln #2012	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,792 (-15%)	2mo	$250,000	$140	64
6835 Hidden Brook Ln	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,021 (-4%)	13mo	$247,500	$122	63
6924 Grand Tree Ln	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,848 (-12%)	5mo	$229,000	$124	58
6732 Alden Ln	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (-14%)	10mo	$165,000	$92	53
6745 Alden Ln	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,824 (-13%)	13mo	$190,000	$104	52
6701 Kate Ln	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,896 (-10%)	18mo	$179,000	$94	50
6926 Lake Tree Ln	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,824 (-13%)	16mo	$260,000	$143	48
6315 Hidden Stream Ct	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (-15%)	11mo	$260,000	$145	48
6705 Kate Ln	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,840 (-12%)	17mo	$223,000	$121	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-7,667
• Equity at exit: $38,767

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $29,381
• Equity at exit: $22,480

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95621

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 210
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,666 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $544/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$560
• Net cashflow: $589

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,920

Max offer price $260,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6319 Misty Wood Way Citrus Heights, CA	3.0	2.0	1454	$2,500	$1.72	43d	1	0.37mi
6948 Sunburst Way Citrus Heights, CA	4.0	2.5	1673	$3,000	$1.79	43d	1	0.56mi
6940 Trailride Way Citrus Heights, CA	3.0	2.0	1527	$2,695	$1.76	43d	1	0.71mi
6948 Trailride Way Citrus Heights, CA	4.0	3.0	1980	$2,850	$1.44	17d	1	0.71mi
6805 Castillo Ct Citrus Heights, CA	4.0	3.0	1948	$2,795	$1.43	23d	1	0.95mi
6913 Gold Run Ave Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.0	1474	$2,800	$1.90	20d	1	1.02mi
6025 Dewey Dr Citrus Heights, CA	3.0	2.0	1847	$2,500	$1.35	23d	1	1.13mi
6034 Centurion Cir Citrus Heights, CA	4.0	2.0	1726	$3,100	$1.80	43d	1	1.20mi
6600 Hillsdale Blvd Sacramento, CA	3.0	3.0	1686	$2,600	$1.54	16d	1	1.44mi
7613 Luzern Way Antelope, CA	3.0	2.0	1401	$2,500	$1.78	11d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $260,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $260,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $260,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $260,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $260,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $260,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $260,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $260,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $260,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $260,000 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $260,000 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $260,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $260,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $260,000 Active 39 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $544 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,976 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,432/yr (+$119/mo · 263.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 36 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,992
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$544
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,559
• − Management: −$2,559
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable income: $2,902
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$696
• After-tax cash flow: $6,372/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Juan Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634620
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 16.00%
• Median HH income: $55,655
• Composite: 44.07/100
• National rank: #2878
• State rank: #138 of 517 in CA

Livability — Citrus Heights

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #614
• US rank: #19580

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Citrus Heights, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 89,370
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,442
• Household income: $80,901
• Rent vs Own: 31.9% rent · 68.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1854.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Asian 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Subsaharan African 3% Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 10% Russian/Polish/Slavic 6% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -408.14%
• Current HPI: 351.9333
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.90%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $544 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.