518 Jaspar Dr · Apache Junction, AZ 85119

$124,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 700 sqft · Manufactured · 94 Days on market

Built 1997 Good condition 1,669 sqft lot Est $139k · 10% under $227/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

If you are looking for a winter retreat in an active community without sacrificing your privacy, this home is the perfect fit. Situated on owned land with no lot lease, this property offers both comfort and long term value. Step inside the raised Arizona Room, a wonderful bonus space that provides extra room for relaxing, visiting with friends, or entertaining guests. With only a small step up, you enter the park model where you will immediately notice the inviting and open feel of the home. The kitchen and dining area feature attractive wood look flooring and vaulted ceilings that enhance the sense of space. A skylight brings in warm natural sunlight, highlighting the charming real wood ca

Key facts

• Raised arizona room
• Wood look flooring
• Real wood cabinets

Tags

• RAISED ARIZONA ROOM
• WOOD LOOK FLOORING
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• SKYLIGHT
• REAL WOOD CABINETS
• WALK IN SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Tax information available; Directions to property available
• HOA & community: Has association; Quarterly association fee; Association fee includes sewer, water, trash, street maintenance, grounds maintenance and other items; No visible truck/trailer/RV/boat per association rules; Community pool; Community spa (heated); Community media room; Community laundry (coin-operated); Tennis courts; Biking/walking paths; Fitness center

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered parking space; 1 carport space
• Security: Security guard; Gated community; Guarded entry
• Utilities: Private water company; Public sewer (connected)
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Desert front and back landscaping; Gravel/stone front and back; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 1 possible bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Eat-in kitchen; Furnished (see remarks); Vaulted ceilings; Pantry; Full bath in master bedroom; Skylight(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $18 ($219/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (0.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.5% in Apache Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#70 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Apache Junction Unified District (4443) (suburban): math 15% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #195 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Desert Vista Elementary School (math 18% / reading 23%, grade F, #729 of 1,109 statewide, top 67%, 536 students, 50% FRL); Cactus Canyon Junior High (math 14% / reading 19%, grade F, #151 of 218 statewide, top 70%, 702 students, 50% FRL); Apache Junction High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #267 of 381 statewide, top 72%, 999 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 358 active listings in the ZIP; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,659 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.63%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $138,600
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
608 Ironstone Dr	0.04mi	1/1.0	720 (+3%)	3mo	$110,000	$153	91
457 S Jaspar Dr	0.07mi	1/1.5	675 (-4%)	2mo	$118,000	$175	88
700 Felspar Dr #700	0.21mi	1/1.5	710 (+1%)	3mo	$130,000	$183	83
261 Cinnabar Dr	0.21mi	1/1.5	725 (+4%)	1mo	$159,000	$219	81
611 Ironstone Dr	0.05mi	1/1.5	770 (+10%)	1mo	$125,000	$162	79
991 Oxide Dr	0.40mi	1/1.5	700 (0%)	1mo	$164,900	$236	78
386 Gypsum Dr	0.12mi	1/1.5	750 (+7%)	5mo	$172,900	$231	77
587 S Jaspar Dr #587	0.09mi	1/2.0	650 (-7%)	4mo	$129,000	$198	77
794 S Cinnabar Dr #794	0.24mi	1/1.0	650 (-7%)	2mo	$99,000	$152	76
923 Nickel Dr #923	0.38mi	1/1.5	750 (+7%)	2mo	$162,000	$216	66
361 Felspar Dr	0.14mi	1/2.0	800 (+14%)	1mo	$184,500	$231	65
4 Orecart Dr #4	0.42mi	1/2.0	750 (+7%)	2mo	$143,000	$191	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-20,759
• Equity at exit: $18,623

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-23,283
• Equity at exit: $10,799

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85119

• Home prices YoY: -33.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 358
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,244 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $361/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$227
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,220

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $89	-5% $54	+0% $18	+5% $-17	+10% $-52
Rent	-10% $-80	-5% $-31	+0% $18	+5% $67	+10% $117
Rate	-1.0pp $81	-0.5pp $50	base $18	+0.5pp $-14	+1.0pp $-47

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $227 · $2,724/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $124,900 Pending 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Under Contract Accepting Backups 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Under Contract Accepting Backups 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Under Contract Accepting Backups 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $124,900 Under Contract Accepting Backups 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,900 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,900 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $124,900 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $124,900 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $124,900 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,900 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,900 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-03-12
    listed $124,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $361 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $824 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$463/yr (+$39/mo · 128.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,922
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$361
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,194
• − Management: −$1,194
• − HOA: −$2,724
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable loss: −$1,805
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$433
• After-tax cash flow: $652/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It is a good investment opportunity with a cosmetic rehab level and minimal repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale update kitchen appliances — modernize kitchen
• Resale update flooring — update wood look flooring
• Resale paint exterior — enhance curb appeal
• Resale update landscaping — enhance curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale update kitchen appliances — modernize kitchen ↑
• Resale update flooring — update wood look flooring ↑
• Resale paint exterior — enhance curb appeal ↑
• Resale update landscaping — enhance curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apache Junction Unified District (4443)
• NCES district ID: 0400790
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $44,930
• Composite: 15.34/100
• National rank: #9325
• State rank: #195 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Apache Junction

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #11242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apache Junction, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 56,611
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 25,420
• Household income: $71,585
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 305.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -138.19%
• Current HPI: 274.3808
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.57%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Listed $124,900 ARMLS

Property tax history

+28.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $361 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.