2550 S Ellsworth Rd #277 · Mesa, AZ 85209

$219,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · Manufactured · 104 Days on market

Built 2000 Good condition $132/sqft · at area comps Est $230k · at est. ↓ 9% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property is located on one of the most sought-after lots in Las Palmas Grand, Mesa's premier 55+ active adult resort community, where every day feels like a vacation. A beautifully maintained home combines style, comfort, and a welcoming sense of community. Step inside and you'll be greeted by bright, open living spaces filled with natural light from multiple skylights. Greeted by luxury laminate wood flooring flowing throughout. The kitchen is the heart of the home, featuring granite countertops, a center island, and plenty of cabinetry — perfect for both quiet dinners and gatherings with friends. A spacious laundry room with extra cabinets makes organization effortless, while the separate dining area adds a touch of traditional charm. Both bedrooms feature walk-in closets, offering

Key facts

• Natural light
• Plenty of cabinetry
• Granite countertops

Tags

• BRIGHT OPEN LIVING SPACES
• NATURAL LIGHT
• LUXURY LAMINATE WOOD FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CENTER ISLAND
• PLENTY OF CABINETRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $219k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $102 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (6.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.4% in Mesa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#6 in AZ, #2,034 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D.
• Gilbert Unified District (4239) (suburban): math 49% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #38 of 249 in AZ (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Augusta Ranch Elementary (math 47% / reading 58%, grade C-, #233 of 1,109 statewide, top 22%, 953 students, 29% FRL); Desert Ridge Jr. High (math 28% / reading 43%, grade F, #62 of 218 statewide, top 29%, 973 students, 26% FRL); Desert Ridge High (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #136 of 381 statewide, top 36%, 2,284 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 171 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 0.5% rent growth), your $61k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,290 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.99%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $230,286
• List price: $219,000
• Delta: -4.90%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2550 S Ellsworth Rd #664	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,493 (-10%)	15mo	$190,000	$127	58
2550 S Ellsworth Rd #41	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,493 (-10%)	19mo	$221,675	$148	53
2550 S Ellsworth Rd #21	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,493 (-10%)	23mo	$215,000	$144	50
2550 S Ellsworth Rd #343	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,456 (-12%)	19mo	$150,000	$103	50
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 160B	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (-12%)	9mo	$345,000	$237	42
8865 E Baseline Rd #554	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,447 (-13%)	14mo	$285,000	$197	36
8865 E Baseline Rd #637	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,439 (-14%)	22mo	$320,000	$222	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.44% appreciation · 0.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $10,432
• Equity at exit: $79,822

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $45,361
• Equity at exit: $110,104

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85209

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 171
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,045 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$274 /mo · $3,285/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,916

Max offer price $219,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $253	-5% $178	+0% $102	+5% $26	+10% $-49
Rent	-10% $-60	-5% $21	+0% $102	+5% $183	+10% $263
Rate	-1.0pp $212	-0.5pp $158	base $102	+0.5pp $45	+1.0pp $-13

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2821 S Skyline #157 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.5	1438	$2,200	$1.53	5d	1	0.30mi
9233 E Neville Ave Mesa, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1145	$1,575	$1.37	25d	1	0.33mi
9233 E Neville Ave Mesa, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1142	$1,575	$1.38	16d	3	0.33mi
8915 E Guadalupe Rd Mesa, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	971	$1,390	$1.43	4d	11	0.34mi
8915 E Guadalupe Rd Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,390	$1.32	25d	1	0.34mi
2821 S Skyline #127 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.5	1438	$2,350	$1.63	45d	1	0.36mi
9233 E Neville Ave #1088 Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1057	$1,850	$1.75	6d	1	0.39mi
8918 E Oro Cir Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1566	$2,100	$1.34	18d	1	0.45mi
8918 E Oro Cir Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1566	$2,180	$1.39	45d	1	0.45mi
8757 E Lomita Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	3.0	1914	$2,300	$1.20	25d	1	0.49mi
2223 S Gordon Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1278	$2,250	$1.76	25d	1	0.54mi
8928 E Pampa Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1723	$10,500	$6.09	25d	1	0.57mi
9322 E Lobo Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1691	$2,200	$1.30	23d	1	0.58mi
8915 E Pampa Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1700	$1,900	$1.12	45d	1	0.59mi
8843 E Pampa Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1357	$2,050	$1.51	6d	1	0.60mi
8547 E Osage Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.5	2045	$2,275	$1.11	25d	1	0.60mi
8547 E Osage Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.5	2045	$2,295	$1.12	45d	1	0.60mi
8566 E Desert Ln Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1918	$2,200	$1.15	20d	1	0.62mi
8566 E Desert Ln Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1918	$2,200	$1.15	16d	1	0.62mi
8527 E Osage Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1871	$2,200	$1.18	45d	1	0.63mi
3121 S Mandy Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1357	$2,190	$1.61	5d	1	0.64mi
8852 E Plana Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,995	$1.47	45d	1	0.65mi
9231 E Lindner Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1572	$2,295	$1.46	6d	1	0.66mi
8865 E Baseline Rd #555 Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1387	$3,900	$2.81	25d	1	0.67mi
8865 E Baseline Rd #555 Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1387	$3,900	$2.81	21d	1	0.67mi
8528 E Desert Ln Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1665	$2,280	$1.37	6d	1	0.69mi
2657 S Keene Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,050	$1.37	0d	1	0.73mi
2051 S 87th Pl Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.5	2090	$2,195	$1.05	19d	1	0.74mi
2159 S Luther Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1900	$2,200	$1.16	25d	1	0.74mi
8433 E Guadalupe Rd Mesa, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,526	$2.70	0d	1	0.74mi
8616 E Posada Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1792	$2,309	$1.29	12d	1	0.74mi
8616 E Posada Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1792	$2,289	$1.28	5d	1	0.74mi
8720 E Knowles Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1692	$1,995	$1.18	0d	1	0.81mi
8720 E Knowles Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1692	$1,995	$1.18	4d	1	0.81mi
8462 E Pampa Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1473	$1,995	$1.35	45d	1	0.82mi
9335 E Baseline Rd Mesa, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1162	$1,745	$1.50	0d	12	0.86mi
8438 E Keats Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1363	$2,300	$1.69	25d	1	0.94mi
8240 E Obispo Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1655	$2,200	$1.33	20d	1	0.95mi
2024 S Baldwin #40 Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1384	$1,800	$1.30	25d	1	1.02mi
2024 S Baldwin #154 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.5	1132	$1,689	$1.49	6d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $219,000 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,000 Active 101 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,000 Active 100 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,000 Active 99 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,000 Active 98 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,000 Active 96 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,000 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,000 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $219,000 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $219,000 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,000 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,000 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,000 Active 84 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,000 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-05-04
    price $219,000 805-char remark

    Show marketing remark (805 chars)

    This property is located on one of the most sought-after lots in Las Palmas Grand, Mesa's premier 55+ active adult resort community, where every day feels like a vacation. A beautifully maintained home combines style, comfort, and a welcoming sense of community. Step inside and you'll be greeted by bright, open living spaces filled with natural light from multiple skylights. Greeted by luxury laminate wood flooring flowing throughout. The kitchen is the heart of the home, featuring granite countertops, a center island, and plenty of cabinetry — perfect for both quiet dinners and gatherings with friends. A spacious laundry room with extra cabinets makes organization effortless, while the separate dining area adds a touch of traditional charm. Both bedrooms feature walk-in closets, offering

16. 2026-03-09
    listed $224,999 Active 805-char remark

    Show marketing remark (805 chars)

    This property is located on one of the most sought-after lots in Las Palmas Grand, Mesa's premier 55+ active adult resort community, where every day feels like a vacation. A beautifully maintained home combines style, comfort, and a welcoming sense of community. Step inside and you'll be greeted by bright, open living spaces filled with natural light from multiple skylights. Greeted by luxury laminate wood flooring flowing throughout. The kitchen is the heart of the home, featuring granite countertops, a center island, and plenty of cabinetry — perfect for both quiet dinners and gatherings with friends. A spacious laundry room with extra cabinets makes organization effortless, while the separate dining area adds a touch of traditional charm. Both bedrooms feature walk-in closets, offering

17. 2026-03-09
    historical

    Show marketing remark (805 chars)

    This property is located on one of the most sought-after lots in Las Palmas Grand, Mesa's premier 55+ active adult resort community, where every day feels like a vacation. A beautifully maintained home combines style, comfort, and a welcoming sense of community. Step inside and you'll be greeted by bright, open living spaces filled with natural light from multiple skylights. Greeted by luxury laminate wood flooring flowing throughout. The kitchen is the heart of the home, featuring granite countertops, a center island, and plenty of cabinetry — perfect for both quiet dinners and gatherings with friends. A spacious laundry room with extra cabinets makes organization effortless, while the separate dining area adds a touch of traditional charm. Both bedrooms feature walk-in closets, offering

18. 2026-02-26
    price $231,999
19. 2026-02-16
    price $232,999
20. 2026-02-06
    price $233,999
21. 2026-01-27
    price $234,999
22. 2025-10-16
    listed $240,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,537
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$3,285
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,963
• − Management: −$1,963
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable loss: −$2,407
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$578
• After-tax cash flow: $1,801/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained home in Las Palmas Grand, Mesa, offers a bright, open floor plan with modern updates and a desirable location.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal
• Resale trim landscaping — improves curb appeal
• Both update kitchen appliances — modernizes kitchen and improves functionality
• Both install smart home features — enhances comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale trim landscaping — improves curb appeal ↑
• Both update kitchen appliances — modernizes kitchen and improves functionality ↑
• Both install smart home features — enhances comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilbert Unified District (4239)
• NCES district ID: 0403400
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $74,715
• Composite: 45.55/100
• National rank: #2600
• State rank: #38 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Mesa

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2034

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime D Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mesa, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 555,266
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 43,150
• Household income: $84,432
• Rent vs Own: 26.9% rent · 73.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 972.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.44%
• Current HPI: 277.6198
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.54%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-8.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $219,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $224,999 ARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $231,999 ARMLS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $232,999 ARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $233,999 ARMLS
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $234,999 ARMLS
• 2025-10-16 Listed $240,000 ARMLS