12265 N G W Carver RD Rd · Dunnellon, FL 34434

$86,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,010 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 206 Days on market

Built 1920 0.56 ac lot Est $172k · 50% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks

.

Key facts

• 0.56 acre lot
• Built 1920
• Listed 205 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: CLRMH

Exterior

• Parking: Paved driveway; Private parking; Unpaved parking areas; Boat parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Wood siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Cleared and wooded lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Flooring: Wood floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Wood flooring; No built-in appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $86k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $922 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $86k).
• Recommended offer: $76k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#443 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Citrus Springs Elementary School (math 52% / reading 48%, grade D+, #1,070 of 2,144 statewide, top 51%, 817 students, 71% FRL); Citrus Springs Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 821 students, 59% FRL); Lecanto High School (math 46% / reading 53%, grade D, #179 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 1,630 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1242 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $595 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 206 days — a 12% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $86k implies a 330% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,680 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 206 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.95%
• DSCR: 3.04
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $171,700
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1758 W J Williams Ln	0.04mi	2/1.0 (-1)	912 (-10%)	11mo	$155,000	$170	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $44,815
• Equity at exit: $12,823

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.77×
• Total profit: $114,748
• Equity at exit: $7,436

Cash invested: $24,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34434

• Home prices YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 1242
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,914 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$451
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,239/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $922

Break-even live

Break-even rent $747

Max offer price $86,000

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $971	-5% $946	+0% $922	+5% $898	+10% $873
Rent	-10% $771	-5% $846	+0% $922	+5% $998	+10% $1,073
Rate	-1.0pp $965	-0.5pp $944	base $922	+0.5pp $900	+1.0pp $877

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,500
• Closing costs: $2,580
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2186 W G Martinelli Blvd Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,950	$1.35	21d	1	0.86mi
1150 W G Martinelli Blvd Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,600	$1.25	21d	1	1.44mi
10872 N Frantz Ave Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1449	$1,815	$1.25	21d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $86,000 Active 206 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $86,000 Active 205 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $86,000 Active 204 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $86,000 Active 203 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $86,000 Active 202 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $86,000 Active 200 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $86,000 Active 199 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $86,000 Active 196 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $86,000 Active 195 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $86,000 Active 190 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $86,000 Active 189 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $86,000 Active 188 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $86,000 Active 187 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $86,000 Active 186 DOM
15. 2026-05-04
    status Active
16. 2026-05-01
    historical
17. 2025-11-22
    price $86,000
18. 2025-11-21
    listed $90,000 Active
19. 2025-09-19
    soldstatus $20,000 Closed
20. 2025-08-29
    status Pending
21. 2025-07-07
    price $33,000
22. 2025-04-30
    listed $28,000 Active
23. 2025-04-29
    historical $28,000
24. 1998-08-01
    soldstatus $27,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,239 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,239 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,969
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,817
• − Property taxes: −$1,239
• − Insurance: −$430
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,838
• − Management: −$1,838
• − Depreciation: −$2,502
• Taxable income: $10,306
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,473
• After-tax cash flow: $8,591/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dunnellon

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #443
• US rank: #7922

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 20,859
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 11,074
• Household income: $68,939
• Rent vs Own: 12.4% rent · 87.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 171.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.70%
• Current HPI: 328.2164
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+218.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Relisted — RACC
• 2026-05-01 Delisted — RACC
• 2025-11-22 Price Changed $86,000 RACC
• 2025-11-21 Listed $90,000 RACC
• 2025-09-19 Sold (MLS) $20,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-08-29 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2025-07-07 Price Changed $33,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-04-30 Listed $28,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-04-29 Coming Soon $28,000 Beaches MLS
• 1998-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $27,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,239 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.