16238 Tigris Dr · Fairhope, AL 36532

$308,535

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,417 sqft · SingleFamily · 201 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 5,227 sqft lot $218/sqft · at area comps Est $303k · at est. $36/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cottonwood Estates is located just off County Road 32 on River Park Road. The community is close to schools, shopping centers, restaurants, golf courses and local attractions. Popular entertainment venues, like OWA amusement park and the beautiful white sand beaches of Gulf Shores and Orange Beach are a short drive from Cottonwood Estates. The exterior features brick and Hardie board with an attached single garage. As you enter the Sullivan plan, the foyer leads to the fabulous open concept living and kitchen area featuring granite countertops, a deep, stainless, undermount sink, stainless appliances, pantry, and an island. The primary suite has a roomy bathroom, granite tops with undermount double bowl vanity, shower, and a large walk-in closet right off the primary bedroom. The second and third bedrooms are to the front of the home, with a second full bath. This home is being built to Gold FORTIFIED Home™ certification, which may save the buyer on their homeowner’s insurance (see Sales Representative for details. ) * This home will receive a one-year warranty from D. R. Horton and a ten-year structural warranty through RWC. * * This home features our Home is Connected Smart Home Technology, which includes control panel, doorbell, smart code lock, two smart light switches, and thermostat, all controlled by one app. (See Sales Representative for complete details on these smart home features. ) Buyer to verify all information during due diligence. Estimated completion of January 2026!

Key facts

• Open concept living
• Walk-in closet
• Stainless appliances

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $309k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-43 ($-517/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $302k (2.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $269k (12.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $269k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.8% in Fairhope — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#15 in AL, #3,577 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: J Larry Newton School (math 45% / reading 70%, grade C+, #74 of 627 statewide, top 12%, 827 students, 50% FRL); Fairhope Middle School (math 54% / reading 75%, grade A-, #3 of 257 statewide, top 1%, 777 students, 33% FRL); Fairhope High School (math 43% / reading 46%, grade F, #22 of 305 statewide, top 8%, 1,629 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 633 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 201 days — a 12% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $269,007 (12.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 201 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.60%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $302,966
• List price: $308,535
• Delta: 1.84%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16255 Tigris Dr	0.01mi	4/2.0	1,410 (-0%)	4mo	$304,461	$216	95
16221 Tigris Dr	0.01mi	4/2.0	1,417 (0%)	7mo	$302,961	$214	93
16313 Tigris Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,417 (0%)	7mo	$295,450	$209	91
16250 Tigris Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,430 (+1%)	7mo	$301,037	$211	87
16207 Tigris Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,504 (+6%)	9mo	$312,036	$207	82
16267 Tigris Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,504 (+6%)	9mo	$269,000	$179	82
16300 Tigris Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,443 (+2%)	10mo	$271,900	$188	81
16348 Tigris Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,443 (+2%)	9mo	$290,675	$201	81
16199 Tigris Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,504 (+6%)	10mo	$307,400	$204	80
16291 Tigris Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,281 (-10%)	5mo	$289,900	$226	73
16233 Tigris Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,281 (-10%)	9mo	$276,900	$216	72
16817 Tigris Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,281 (-10%)	2mo	$295,424	$231	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-52,811
• Equity at exit: $46,004

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-49,818
• Equity at exit: $26,676

Cash invested: $86,390 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36532

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 633
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,690 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,618
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$386 /mo · $4,628/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$36
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$565
• Net cashflow: $-43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,745

Max offer price $302,304

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $170	-5% $64	+0% $-43	+5% $-150	+10% $-256
Rent	-10% $-256	-5% $-149	+0% $-43	+5% $63	+10% $169
Rate	-1.0pp $112	-0.5pp $35	base $-43	+0.5pp $-123	+1.0pp $-204

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,134
• Closing costs: $9,256
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16216 Tigris Dr Fairhope, AL	4.0	2.0	1417	$3,700	$2.61	15d	1	0.02mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $36 · $432/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $308,535 Active 201 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $308,535 Active 199 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $308,535 Active 198 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $308,535 Active 197 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $308,535 Active 196 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $308,535 Active 195 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $308,535 Active 193 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $308,535 Active 192 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $308,535 Active 190 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $308,535 Active 189 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $308,535 Active 188 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $308,535 Active 187 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $308,535 Active 183 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $308,535 Active 182 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $308,535 Active 181 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $308,535 Active 180 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $308,535 Active 179 DOM
18. 2026-03-30
    status Active 1522-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1522 chars)

    Cottonwood Estates is located just off County Road 32 on River Park Road. The community is close to schools, shopping centers, restaurants, golf courses and local attractions. Popular entertainment venues, like OWA amusement park and the beautiful white sand beaches of Gulf Shores and Orange Beach are a short drive from Cottonwood Estates. The exterior features brick and Hardie board with an attached single garage. As you enter the Sullivan plan, the foyer leads to the fabulous open concept living and kitchen area featuring granite countertops, a deep, stainless, undermount sink, stainless appliances, pantry, and an island. The primary suite has a roomy bathroom, granite tops with undermount double bowl vanity, shower, and a large walk-in closet right off the primary bedroom. The second and third bedrooms are to the front of the home, with a second full bath. This home is being built to Gold FORTIFIED Home™ certification, which may save the buyer on their homeowner’s insurance (see Sales Representative for details. ) * This home will receive a one-year warranty from D. R. Horton and a ten-year structural warranty through RWC. * * This home features our Home is Connected Smart Home Technology, which includes control panel, doorbell, smart code lock, two smart light switches, and thermostat, all controlled by one app. (See Sales Representative for complete details on these smart home features. ) Buyer to verify all information during due diligence. Estimated completion of January 2026!

19. 2026-03-30
    price $308,535 1522-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1522 chars)

    Cottonwood Estates is located just off County Road 32 on River Park Road. The community is close to schools, shopping centers, restaurants, golf courses and local attractions. Popular entertainment venues, like OWA amusement park and the beautiful white sand beaches of Gulf Shores and Orange Beach are a short drive from Cottonwood Estates. The exterior features brick and Hardie board with an attached single garage. As you enter the Sullivan plan, the foyer leads to the fabulous open concept living and kitchen area featuring granite countertops, a deep, stainless, undermount sink, stainless appliances, pantry, and an island. The primary suite has a roomy bathroom, granite tops with undermount double bowl vanity, shower, and a large walk-in closet right off the primary bedroom. The second and third bedrooms are to the front of the home, with a second full bath. This home is being built to Gold FORTIFIED Home™ certification, which may save the buyer on their homeowner’s insurance (see Sales Representative for details. ) * This home will receive a one-year warranty from D. R. Horton and a ten-year structural warranty through RWC. * * This home features our Home is Connected Smart Home Technology, which includes control panel, doorbell, smart code lock, two smart light switches, and thermostat, all controlled by one app. (See Sales Representative for complete details on these smart home features. ) Buyer to verify all information during due diligence. Estimated completion of January 2026!

20. 2026-03-02
    status Pending 1522-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1522 chars)

    Cottonwood Estates is located just off County Road 32 on River Park Road. The community is close to schools, shopping centers, restaurants, golf courses and local attractions. Popular entertainment venues, like OWA amusement park and the beautiful white sand beaches of Gulf Shores and Orange Beach are a short drive from Cottonwood Estates. The exterior features brick and Hardie board with an attached single garage. As you enter the Sullivan plan, the foyer leads to the fabulous open concept living and kitchen area featuring granite countertops, a deep, stainless, undermount sink, stainless appliances, pantry, and an island. The primary suite has a roomy bathroom, granite tops with undermount double bowl vanity, shower, and a large walk-in closet right off the primary bedroom. The second and third bedrooms are to the front of the home, with a second full bath. This home is being built to Gold FORTIFIED Home™ certification, which may save the buyer on their homeowner’s insurance (see Sales Representative for details. ) * This home will receive a one-year warranty from D. R. Horton and a ten-year structural warranty through RWC. * * This home features our Home is Connected Smart Home Technology, which includes control panel, doorbell, smart code lock, two smart light switches, and thermostat, all controlled by one app. (See Sales Representative for complete details on these smart home features. ) Buyer to verify all information during due diligence. Estimated completion of January 2026!

21. 2026-01-18
    price $304,960 1522-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1522 chars)

    Cottonwood Estates is located just off County Road 32 on River Park Road. The community is close to schools, shopping centers, restaurants, golf courses and local attractions. Popular entertainment venues, like OWA amusement park and the beautiful white sand beaches of Gulf Shores and Orange Beach are a short drive from Cottonwood Estates. The exterior features brick and Hardie board with an attached single garage. As you enter the Sullivan plan, the foyer leads to the fabulous open concept living and kitchen area featuring granite countertops, a deep, stainless, undermount sink, stainless appliances, pantry, and an island. The primary suite has a roomy bathroom, granite tops with undermount double bowl vanity, shower, and a large walk-in closet right off the primary bedroom. The second and third bedrooms are to the front of the home, with a second full bath. This home is being built to Gold FORTIFIED Home™ certification, which may save the buyer on their homeowner’s insurance (see Sales Representative for details. ) * This home will receive a one-year warranty from D. R. Horton and a ten-year structural warranty through RWC. * * This home features our Home is Connected Smart Home Technology, which includes control panel, doorbell, smart code lock, two smart light switches, and thermostat, all controlled by one app. (See Sales Representative for complete details on these smart home features. ) Buyer to verify all information during due diligence. Estimated completion of January 2026!

22. 2025-11-10
    price $303,960 1522-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1522 chars)

    Cottonwood Estates is located just off County Road 32 on River Park Road. The community is close to schools, shopping centers, restaurants, golf courses and local attractions. Popular entertainment venues, like OWA amusement park and the beautiful white sand beaches of Gulf Shores and Orange Beach are a short drive from Cottonwood Estates. The exterior features brick and Hardie board with an attached single garage. As you enter the Sullivan plan, the foyer leads to the fabulous open concept living and kitchen area featuring granite countertops, a deep, stainless, undermount sink, stainless appliances, pantry, and an island. The primary suite has a roomy bathroom, granite tops with undermount double bowl vanity, shower, and a large walk-in closet right off the primary bedroom. The second and third bedrooms are to the front of the home, with a second full bath. This home is being built to Gold FORTIFIED Home™ certification, which may save the buyer on their homeowner’s insurance (see Sales Representative for details. ) * This home will receive a one-year warranty from D. R. Horton and a ten-year structural warranty through RWC. * * This home features our Home is Connected Smart Home Technology, which includes control panel, doorbell, smart code lock, two smart light switches, and thermostat, all controlled by one app. (See Sales Representative for complete details on these smart home features. ) Buyer to verify all information during due diligence. Estimated completion of January 2026!

23. 2025-11-04
    listed $302,960 Active New Construction 1522-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1522 chars)

    Cottonwood Estates is located just off County Road 32 on River Park Road. The community is close to schools, shopping centers, restaurants, golf courses and local attractions. Popular entertainment venues, like OWA amusement park and the beautiful white sand beaches of Gulf Shores and Orange Beach are a short drive from Cottonwood Estates. The exterior features brick and Hardie board with an attached single garage. As you enter the Sullivan plan, the foyer leads to the fabulous open concept living and kitchen area featuring granite countertops, a deep, stainless, undermount sink, stainless appliances, pantry, and an island. The primary suite has a roomy bathroom, granite tops with undermount double bowl vanity, shower, and a large walk-in closet right off the primary bedroom. The second and third bedrooms are to the front of the home, with a second full bath. This home is being built to Gold FORTIFIED Home™ certification, which may save the buyer on their homeowner’s insurance (see Sales Representative for details. ) * This home will receive a one-year warranty from D. R. Horton and a ten-year structural warranty through RWC. * * This home features our Home is Connected Smart Home Technology, which includes control panel, doorbell, smart code lock, two smart light switches, and thermostat, all controlled by one app. (See Sales Representative for complete details on these smart home features. ) Buyer to verify all information during due diligence. Estimated completion of January 2026!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,281
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,283
• − Property taxes: −$4,628
• − Insurance: −$1,543
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,582
• − Management: −$2,582
• − HOA: −$432
• − Depreciation: −$8,976
• Taxable loss: −$5,745
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,379
• After-tax cash flow: $862/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. The highest-ROI updates would be painting the exterior and interior walls, landscaping improvements, and adding a smart home system.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves convenience and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves convenience and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Fairhope

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #3577

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Baldwin County · 181,514 people
• City population: 38,108
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• Population (ZIP): 38,108
• Household income: $89,694
• Rent vs Own: 17.5% rent · 82.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 665.0

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -175.08%
• Current HPI: 299.6643
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+1.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Relisted — BCAR
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $308,535 BCAR
• 2026-03-02 Pending — BCAR
• 2026-01-18 Price Changed $304,960 BCAR
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $303,960 BCAR
• 2025-11-04 Listed $302,960 BCAR