364 Three Mile Harbor Rd · Springs, NY 11937

$1,600,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily · 154 Days on market

Built 1993 0.98 ac lot $889/sqft · at area comps Est $1678k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

On a private, scenic, .98-acre lot in East Hampton Village Fringe, this charming three-bedroom two bath home offers the perfect blend of tranquility and convenience. Surrounded by natural beaty, the property provides a peaceful retreat while remaining just minutes from restaurants, boutique shopping, local markets and farmstands. Enjoy easy access to Three Mile Harbor, nearby marinas and water activities. Whether you are seeking a vacation home or a year-round residence, this property delivers classic Hamptons living in an exceptional location.

Key facts

• Private lot
• Water activities
• Nearby marinas

Tags

• PRIVATE LOT
• SCENIC LOT
• NEARBY MARINAS
• WATER ACTIVITIES
• EXCEPTIONAL LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.60M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($75k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($20k rent vs $1.60M).
• Recommended offer: $1.41M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#809 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Springs Union Free School District (town): math 55% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #239 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.3%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $20,295/mo this rent would consume 188% of the median local household income ($130k/yr) (locally 896% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $11k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $48k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $448k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.41M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $165k; list at $1.60M implies a 870% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $1,408,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.84%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,678,183
• List price: $1,600,000
• Delta: -4.66%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14 Birdie Ln	0.65mi	3/2.5	1,600 (-11%)	1mo	$1,395,000	$872	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $247,807
• Equity at exit: $238,565

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.72×
• Total profit: $1,217,393
• Equity at exit: $138,339

Cash invested: $448,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11937

• Rents YoY: 12.3%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $20,295 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,391
• Tax from tax record: −$690 /mo · $8,284/yr
• Insurance: −$667
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,262
• Net cashflow: $6,285

Break-even live

Break-even rent $12,339

Max offer price $1,600,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $400,000
• Closing costs: $48,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20 Howard St East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.5	2000	$75,000	$37.50	22d	1	0.29mi
15 Rivers Rd East Hampton, NY	3.0	4.0	2400	$45,000	$18.75	43d	1	0.59mi
3 Birdie Ln East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.5	2000	$15,000	$7.50	1d	1	0.66mi
202 Treescape Dr Unit 10B East Hampton, NY	4.0	3.0	2200	$50,000	$22.73	24d	1	0.91mi
210 Treescape Dr East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	2400	$25,000	$10.42	43d	1	0.93mi
3 Forest Ct East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1750	$50,000	$28.57	24d	1	0.96mi
17 Joshua Edwards Ct East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1800	$40,000	$22.22	43d	1	1.06mi
8 Beverly Rd East Hampton, NY	4.0	2.0	1269	$20,000	$15.76	1d	1	1.07mi
23 Wooded Oak Ln East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1560	$25,000	$16.03	43d	1	1.23mi
117 Woodbine Dr East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1496	$65,000	$43.45	43d	1	1.33mi
289 Three Mile Harbor Hog Creek Rd East Hampton, NY	3.0	3.0	1600	$45,600	$28.50	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 149 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 145 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 143 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,600,000 Active 140 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,600,000 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,600,000 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,600,000 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,600,000 Active 136 DOM
15. 2026-01-15
    listed $1,600,000 Active 550-char remark

    Show marketing remark (550 chars)

    On a private, scenic, .98-acre lot in East Hampton Village Fringe, this charming three-bedroom two bath home offers the perfect blend of tranquility and convenience. Surrounded by natural beaty, the property provides a peaceful retreat while remaining just minutes from restaurants, boutique shopping, local markets and farmstands. Enjoy easy access to Three Mile Harbor, nearby marinas and water activities. Whether you are seeking a vacation home or a year-round residence, this property delivers classic Hamptons living in an exceptional location.

16. 1993-10-22
    soldstatus $165,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,284 · $690/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $17,662 · $1,472/mo
• Expected delta: +$9,378/yr (+$782/mo · 113.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $243,539
• − Mortgage interest: −$89,625
• − Property taxes: −$8,284
• − Insurance: −$8,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$19,483
• − Management: −$19,483
• − Depreciation: −$46,545
• Taxable income: $52,118
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$12,508
• After-tax cash flow: $62,916/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springs Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $75,413
• Composite: 51.42/100
• National rank: #1728
• State rank: #239 of 590 in NY

Livability — Springs

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #809
• US rank: #15666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springs, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 21,882
• Household income: $129,883
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 896.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 23% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -285.21%
• Current HPI: 444.1499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.28%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+869.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-15 Listed $1,600,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,284 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.