Concho Plan · Texas City, TX 77568

$349,990

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,817 sqft · SingleFamily · 1004 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 3% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Every square foot is maximized with our Concho plan - the ideal home for the growing family. . This 4-bedroom home offers space, flexibility and comfort. Entering your new home, you are met with a foyer leading to your secluded study room. If you are looking for a little more living space, opt to transform the study room into your fifth bedroom! Travel further down the hall and you will discover the entry to your walk-in utility room, the convenient downstairs powder room, as well as the entry to your two-car garage. Need a little more room for your tools or holiday decorations? Decide to tack on an extra half-car garage. Past the utility room, and you are led to the heart of the home - the open-concept, two-story family room adjoined by the oversized kitchen and breakfast area. The kitchen accommodates sleek granite countertops, flat-panel birch cabinets (with the option to add more), as well as a kitchen island! One of the most exclusive options this floor plan offers is the ability to add in an extended covered patio off the kitchen area. Talk about the perfect outdoor sanctuary! Finally, the first floor holds your private master suite with an elegant master bathroom. The master bathroom holds cultured marble countertops with the option of dual vanities, a shower/bathtub enclosure, and an expansive walk-in closet!

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 1003 days

🏗️ New construction. The $349,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $455,426.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $350k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $308k (12.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $278k (20.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $278k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hughes Road El (math 36% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 707 students, 67% FRL); Dunbar Middle (math 25% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 654 students, 78% FRL); Dickinson H S (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,619 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 783 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 1004 days — a 12% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $277,967 (20.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 1004 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.95%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $455,426
• List price: $349,990
• Delta: -23.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2714 Arbor Edge Xing	0.14mi	4/2.5	2,811 (-0%)	3mo	$377,000	$134	86
3017 Broadhaven Dr	0.06mi	4/3.5	3,137 (+11%)	4mo	$450,000	$143	75
2930 Palm Branch Dr	0.61mi	4/3.5	2,795 (-1%)	0mo	$402,990	$144	70
12402 Berberry Dr	0.18mi	4/2.5	2,496 (-11%)	4mo	$280,000	$112	65
13423 Harbor Point Dr	0.73mi	4/3.0	2,731 (-3%)	3mo	$445,990	$163	56
2825 Palm Branch Dr	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,731 (-3%)	5mo	$444,990	$163	56
13410 Harbor Point Dr	0.73mi	4/3.5	2,667 (-5%)	4mo	$463,990	$174	54
2709 Calypso Pl	0.38mi	4/2.5	2,452 (-13%)	4mo	$229,000	$93	54
12213 Midship Ln	0.62mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,599 (-8%)	1mo	$310,000	$119	48
2821 Palm Branch Dr	0.72mi	4/3.5	2,548 (-10%)	5mo	$451,990	$177	46
2138 Open Prairie Dr	0.67mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,439 (-13%)	4mo	$349,900	$143	36
2813 Palm Branch Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,517 (-11%)	4mo	$435,990	$173	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-135,862
• Equity at exit: $67,906

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.49×
• Total profit: $-190,227
• Equity at exit: $39,377

Cash invested: $127,519 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 113 active · 34 under contract
• Months of supply: 15.1 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $375,000 ($144/sqft)
• Median days on market: 98 d
• This list price: 35% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +12.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77568

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 783
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,780 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,388
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$569 /mo · $6,831/yr
• Insurance: −$190
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$584
• Net cashflow: $-1,018

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,068

Max offer price $308,139

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-703	-5% $-860	+0% $-1,018	+5% $-1,175	+10% $-1,333
Rent	-10% $-1,237	-5% $-1,128	+0% $-1,018	+5% $-908	+10% $-798
Rate	-1.0pp $-789	-0.5pp $-902	base $-1,018	+0.5pp $-1,136	+1.0pp $-1,256

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $113,857
• Closing costs: $13,663
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2600 Golden Palms Ln La Marque, TX	4.0	3.0	2411	$3,200	$1.33	17d	1	0.57mi
421 Palomino Stand Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,329	$1.09	12d	1	0.72mi
640 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,269	$1.06	7d	1	0.84mi
692 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,329	$1.09	30d	1	0.96mi
916 American Monarch Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,309	$1.08	16d	1	0.97mi
13817 Starboard Reach Dr Texas City, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2268	$3,630	$1.60	0d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $349,990 Active 1004 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $349,990 Active 1002 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $349,990 Active 1001 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $349,990 Active 1000 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $349,990 Active 999 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $349,990 Active 996 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $349,990 Active 995 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $349,990 Active 994 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $349,990 Active 993 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $349,990 Active 991 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $349,990 Active 989 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $349,990 Active 988 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $349,990 Active 987 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $349,990 Active 986 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $349,990 Active 985 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $349,990 Active 983 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $349,990 Active 982 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $349,990 Active 981 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $349,990 Active 980 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $349,990 Active 979 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $349,990 Active 978 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $349,990 Active 977 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $349,990 Active 976 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $349,990 Active 975 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $349,990 Active 974 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $349,990 Active 972 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $349,990 Active 971 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $349,990 Active 970 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $349,990 Active 969 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $349,990 Active 968 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $349,990 Active 967 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $349,990 Active 966 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $349,990 Active 965 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $349,990 Active 964 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $349,990 Active 963 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $349,990 Active 962 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $349,990 Active 961 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $349,990 Active 959 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $349,990 Active 957 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $349,990 Active 956 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $349,990 Active 953 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $349,990 Active 952 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $349,990 Active 951 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $349,990 Active 950 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $349,990 Active 948 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $349,990 Active 944 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $349,990 Active 943 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $349,990 Active 942 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $349,990 Active 939 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $349,990 Active 938 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,356
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,511
• − Property taxes: −$6,831
• − Insurance: −$3,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,668
• − Management: −$2,668
• − Depreciation: −$13,249
• Taxable loss: −$20,647
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,955
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,259/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This Concho plan home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a great layout and modern finishes, making it an ideal move-in-ready property.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and freshens the interior ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 31/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hughes Road El F TX #2,174/4,322 Nat'l #24,455/41,679 Middle Dunbar Middle F TX #1,341/1,662 Nat'l #11,105/14,009 High Dickinson H S F TX #880/1,632 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Texas City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• County: Galveston County · 390,640 people
• City population: 49,936
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,083
• Household income: $74,694
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

---

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.39%
• Current HPI: 236.0239
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2023-12-05 Price Changed $349,990 Zillow
• 2023-11-08 Listed $359,990 Zillow