Bay Leaf Plan · Zachary, LA 70791

$241,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,576 sqft · SingleFamily · 296 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to The Bay Leaf, a beautifully designed single-story new construction home offering 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 1-car garage across 1,576 square feet of comfortable, thoughtfully planned living space. Designed for modern living, this open-concept floor plan is perfect for families, entertainers, first-time buyers, and anyone searching for a functional and stylish home in Miraval, Zachary, La. Step inside from the covered front porch into a welcoming foyer with convenient access to the laundry room. The Bay Leaf opens into a bright, flowing layout where the kitchen, dining, and living room come together seamlessly, creating the ideal space for everyday living and gathering with friends and family. The modern kitchen features a spacious island overlooking the living area, a walk-in pantry, and easy access to the dining room. Homebuyers will love the stainless steel appliances, including a stove, microwave hood, and dishwasher, paired with beautiful 3 cm granite countertops throughout, adding durability, style, and value. The primary bedroom suite, located privately toward the rear of the home, offers a relaxing retreat complete with a large walk-in closet and a well-appointed bathroom with dual-sink vanity and linen storage. Three additional secondary bedrooms are thoughtfully positioned throughout the home, providing flexibility for children's rooms, guest space, home office needs, or hobby areas, all supported by a conveniently located second full bathroom.

Key facts

• Spacious island
• Modern kitchen
• Walk-in pantry

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION HOME
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• MODERN KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

🏗️ New construction. The $241,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $253,736.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $242k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-144 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (15.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#64 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Zachary Community School District (suburban): math 46% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 98 in LA (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rollins Place Elementary (847 students, 60% FRL); Northwestern Middle School (math 41% / reading 68%, grade B-, #17 of 218 statewide, top 8%, 912 students, 56% FRL); Zachary High School (math 56% / reading 68%, grade B-, #15 of 265 statewide, top 6%, 1,765 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 38% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 864 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,252 units permitted in East Baton Rouge Parish in 2024 (440 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• East Baton Rouge County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 296 days — a 12% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,701 (15.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 296 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.44%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $253,736
• List price: $241,900
• Delta: -4.66%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15818 Garrigue Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,555 (-1%)	1mo	$248,900	$160	88
15839 Garrigue Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,555 (-1%)	0mo	$253,900	$163	88
517 Miraval Ave	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,555 (-1%)	1mo	$249,900	$161	86
15514 Alfio Ct	0.33mi	4/2.0	1,581 (+0%)	1mo	$250,900	$159	83
15822 Garrigue Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,543 (-2%)	2mo	$253,900	$165	81
15508 Alfio Ct	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,549 (-2%)	1mo	$259,900	$168	76
937 Ryan Ave	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,549 (-2%)	2mo	$259,900	$168	75
15515 Rocco Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,658 (+5%)	2mo	$264,900	$160	74
972 Ryan Ave	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,543 (-2%)	2mo	$259,900	$168	71
456 Miraval Ave	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,343 (-15%)	3mo	$234,900	$175	61
15538 Alfio Ct	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,386 (-12%)	0mo	$234,900	$169	60
529 Miraval Ave	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,343 (-15%)	1mo	$243,815	$182	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-47,828
• Equity at exit: $37,833

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-43,070
• Equity at exit: $21,938

Cash invested: $71,046 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 41 active · 47 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.2 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $250,900 ($163/sqft)
• Median days on market: 32 d
• This list price: 27% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -1.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 70791

• Home prices YoY: -21.6%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 864
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,037 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,331
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$317 /mo · $3,806/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $-144

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,220

Max offer price $232,859

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $31	-5% $-57	+0% $-144	+5% $-232	+10% $-320
Rent	-10% $-305	-5% $-225	+0% $-144	+5% $-64	+10% $17
Rate	-1.0pp $-16	-0.5pp $-80	base $-144	+0.5pp $-210	+1.0pp $-277

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,434
• Closing costs: $7,612
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1641 Groom Rd Baker, LA	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,650	$1.32	107d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $241,900 Active 296 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $241,900 Active 295 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $241,900 Active 294 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $241,900 Active 293 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $241,900 Active 292 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $241,900 Active 290 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $241,900 Active 289 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $241,900 Active 288 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $241,900 Active 287 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $241,900 Active 286 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $241,900 Active 285 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $241,900 Active 284 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $241,900 Active 283 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $241,900 Active 282 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $241,900 Active 281 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $241,900 Active 280 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $241,900 Active 279 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $241,900 Active 278 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $241,900 Active 277 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $241,900 Active 276 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $241,900 Active 275 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $241,900 Active 274 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $241,900 Active 273 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $241,900 Active 272 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $241,900 Active 271 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $241,900 Active 270 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $241,900 Active 269 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $241,900 Active 268 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $241,900 Active 267 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $241,900 Active 266 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $241,900 Active 265 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $241,900 Active 264 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $241,900 Active 263 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $241,900 Active 262 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $241,900 Active 261 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $241,900 Active 260 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $241,900 Active 259 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $241,900 Active 258 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $241,900 Active 257 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $241,900 Active 256 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $241,900 Active 255 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $241,900 Active 254 DOM
43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $241,900 Active 252 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $241,900 Active 251 DOM
45. 2026-09-23
    days on market $241,900 Active 250 DOM
46. 2026-09-22
    days on market $241,900 Active 249 DOM
47. 2026-09-21
    days on market $241,900 Active 248 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $241,900 Active 247 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $241,900 Active 246 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $241,900 Active 245 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,444
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,213
• − Property taxes: −$3,806
• − Insurance: −$1,269
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,956
• − Management: −$1,956
• − Depreciation: −$7,381
• Taxable loss: −$6,136
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,473
• After-tax cash flow: $-259/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This beautifully designed single-story new construction home is move-in ready with no visible signs of wear or damage. It offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 1-car garage across 1,576 square feet of comfortable, thoughtfully planned living space.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 57/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Zachary Elementary School C LA #100/646 Nat'l #10,846/41,679 Middle Northwestern Middle School B- LA #17/218 Nat'l #2,564/14,009 High Zachary High School B- LA #15/265 Nat'l #3,220/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Zachary Community School District
• NCES district ID: 2200039
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -28.00%
• Median HH income: $68,531
• Composite: 46.99/100
• National rank: #2349
• State rank: #8 of 98 in LA

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Zachary

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #64
• US rank: #8274

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: East Baton Rouge Parish · 464,810 people
• City population: 30,385
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• Population (ZIP): 30,385
• Household income: $78,263
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 17% of renters

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Population outlook (East Baton Rouge County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 464,810 people
• By 2030: 472,137 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 480,243 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 484,422 · +4.2%
• By 2075: 492,069 · +5.9%
• By 2100: 476,347 · +2.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 41% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · East Baton Rouge

• 2024 margin: D (+11.1) · D 54.5% · R 43.4% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: 11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+11.1 2020: D+13.1 2016: D+9.2 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.01%
• Current HPI: 170.2143
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.18%
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+0.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $241,900 Zillow
• 2026-01-16 Listed $239,900 Zillow