12721 W Greenway Rd #233 · El Mirage, AZ 85335

$130,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Manufactured · 139 Days on market

Built 2006 Good condition $93/sqft · 33% above area Est $98k · 33% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this remodeled 3BR, 2BA mobile home in Rosewood Estates. This split floor plan offers modern living with upgraded finishes throughout. The kitchen is a chef's dream, while the open living area is perfect for relaxation and entertaining. Enjoy a private master suite and two additional bedrooms for versatility. Outside, a spacious patio and well-maintained landscaping provide outdoor bliss. Conveniently located, this home offers easy access to local amenities. Embrace affordable, stylish living & come check it out.

Key facts

• Private master suite
• Split floor plan
• Upgraded finishes

Tags

• REMODELED MOBILE HOME
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• UPGRADED FINISHES
• PRIVATE MASTER SUITE
• SPACIOUS PATIO
• WELL-MAINTAINED LANDSCAPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $638 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 4.5% in El Mirage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#112 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 132 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $130k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.04%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $98,067
• List price: $130,000
• Delta: 32.56%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12721 W Greenway Rd #116	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,420 (+1%)	15mo	$100,000	$70	82
12721 W Greenway Rd #159	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+10%)	0mo	$44,000	$29	81
12721 W Greenway Rd #39	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+10%)	1mo	$102,000	$66	80
12721 W Greenway Rd #108	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-4%)	14mo	$59,000	$44	79
12721 W Greenway Rd #25	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,542 (+10%)	1mo	$73,500	$48	72
12721 W Greenway Rd #80	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-13%)	8mo	$83,990	$69	72
12721 W Greenway Rd #224	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,548 (+11%)	13mo	$107,000	$69	69
12721 W Greenway Rd #6	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-13%)	13mo	$72,000	$59	65
15632 N Greasewood St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-3%)	20mo	$315,000	$233	58
16101 N EL Mirage Rd #426	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+12%)	7mo	$115,000	$73	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $14,066
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $43,224
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85335

• Home prices YoY: -13.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 132
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,945 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,950/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $638

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,137

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12945 W Greenway Rd El Mirage, AZ	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,300	$1.23	23d	4	0.21mi
12574 W Lisbon Ln El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1058	$1,700	$1.61	4d	1	0.32mi
12532 W Saint Moritz Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1534	$1,875	$1.22	5d	1	0.34mi
15426 N Cactus Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	1.0	1376	$1,634	$1.19	43d	1	0.37mi
14715 N 124th Ave El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1534	$2,010	$1.31	43d	1	0.43mi
12438 W Hearn Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,595	$1.22	23d	1	0.48mi
15427 N Jerry St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	920	$1,450	$1.58	5d	1	0.49mi
13227 W Port au Prince Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,709	$1.12	14d	1	0.54mi
13227 W Port au Prince Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,759	$1.16	23d	1	0.54mi
12537 W Redfield Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,795	$1.12	24d	1	0.55mi
15620 N El Mirage Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1310	$1,599	$1.22	24d	2	0.57mi
12437 W Via Camille El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1534	$1,875	$1.22	16d	1	0.59mi
13217 W Mauna Loa Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1672	$1,900	$1.14	1d	1	0.64mi
12817 W Cottonwood St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.0	1795	$1,300	$0.72	3d	1	0.65mi
14417 N Gil Balcome Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1446	$1,900	$1.31	4d	1	0.71mi
14944 N 133rd Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1518	$2,171	$1.43	21d	1	0.71mi
13002 W Hearn Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1518	$1,795	$1.18	10d	1	0.72mi
13186 W Gelding Cir Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1691	$1,899	$1.12	2d	1	0.76mi
16520 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.5	1267	$1,850	$1.46	1d	17	0.76mi
13314 W Mauna Loa Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1252	$2,355	$1.88	43d	1	0.78mi
12134 W Ironwood St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,950	$1.16	24d	1	0.79mi
12121 W Ironwood St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,999	$1.19	24d	1	0.81mi
16629 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	1052	$1,462	$1.39	1d	3	0.92mi
13148 W Redfield Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,970	$1.44	3d	1	0.93mi
14973 N 135th Dr Unit 1546409P Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1797	$3,122	$1.74	12d	1	0.94mi
15109 N Verbena St El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1642	$1,869	$1.14	43d	1	0.95mi
12731 W Sharon Dr El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,650	$1.27	16d	1	1.02mi
13342 W Canyon Creek Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1419	$1,750	$1.23	24d	1	1.05mi
13939 N 132nd Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1297	$3,500	$2.70	43d	1	1.06mi
13949 N 133rd Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1518	$1,995	$1.31	43d	1	1.08mi
12530 W Willow Ave El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1615	$1,830	$1.13	5d	1	1.10mi
12530 W Willow Ave El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1615	$2,075	$1.28	24d	1	1.10mi
12430 W Willow Ave El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1183	$5,900	$4.99	4d	1	1.11mi
14809 N El Frio Cir El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1459	$2,199	$1.51	21d	1	1.12mi
14809 N El Frio Cir El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,300	$1.35	24d	1	1.12mi
12706 W Ash St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1559	$1,695	$1.09	5d	1	1.14mi
13338 W Boca Raton Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1412	$2,096	$1.48	24d	1	1.14mi
12710 W Ash St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1545	$2,195	$1.42	18d	1	1.14mi
12710 W Ash St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1545	$2,195	$1.42	19d	1	1.14mi
12710 W Ash St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1559	$2,095	$1.34	2d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 139 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 138 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 137 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 136 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 134 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 129 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $130,000 Active 128 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $130,000 Active 125 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $130,000 Active 124 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 123 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 122 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 121 DOM
14. 2026-01-30
    listed $130,000 Active 531-char remark

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    Discover this remodeled 3BR, 2BA mobile home in Rosewood Estates. This split floor plan offers modern living with upgraded finishes throughout. The kitchen is a chef's dream, while the open living area is perfect for relaxation and entertaining. Enjoy a private master suite and two additional bedrooms for versatility. Outside, a spacious patio and well-maintained landscaping provide outdoor bliss. Conveniently located, this home offers easy access to local amenities. Embrace affordable, stylish living & come check it out.

15. 2026-01-01
    historical
16. 2025-08-01
    listed $135,000 Active
17. 2025-07-28
    historical
18. 2025-06-02
    status Active
19. 2025-06-02
    historical
20. 2025-02-03
    listed $145,000 Active
21. 2025-01-01
    historical
22. 2024-10-02
    status Active
23. 2024-10-02
    price $145,000
24. 2024-10-01
    historical
25. 2024-09-06
    price $149,900
26. 2024-09-04
    status Active
27. 2024-09-01
    historical
28. 2024-08-08
    price $155,000
29. 2024-08-01
    status Active
30. 2024-08-01
    historical
31. 2024-07-02
    status Active
32. 2024-07-02
    historical
33. 2024-05-22
    price $159,900
34. 2024-01-29
    listed $165,000 Active
35. 2022-07-06
    soldstatus $85,000 Closed
36. 2022-06-18
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
37. 2022-06-13
    listed $85,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,343
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,950
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,867
• − Management: −$1,867
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $5,944
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,427
• After-tax cash flow: $6,233/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This remodeled 3BR, 2BA mobile home in Rosewood Estates offers modern finishes and a split floor plan. It is in good condition with minimal repairs needed, making it an attractive investment for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Updating flooring in bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve both resale and rental value
• Both Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Updating flooring in bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — El Mirage

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #15164

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: El Mirage, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 36,088
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 36,088
• Household income: $78,050
• Rent vs Own: 30.3% rent · 69.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 669.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 35% Two or more races 28% Black 6% Native American 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 30% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.81%
• Current HPI: 342.6503
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.08%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+52.9% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-30 Listed $130,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-08-01 Listed $135,000 ARMLS
• 2025-07-28 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-06-02 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-06-02 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-02-03 Listed $145,000 ARMLS
• 2025-01-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-10-02 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2024-10-02 Price Changed $145,000 ARMLS
• 2024-10-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-09-06 Price Changed $149,900 ARMLS
• 2024-09-04 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2024-09-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-08-08 Price Changed $155,000 ARMLS
• 2024-08-01 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2024-08-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-07-02 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2024-07-02 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-05-22 Price Changed $159,900 ARMLS
• 2024-01-29 Listed $165,000 ARMLS
• 2022-07-06 Sold (MLS) $85,000 ARMLS
• 2022-06-18 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2022-06-13 Listed $85,000 ARMLS