14161 Arbor Pines Dr · Riverview, FL 33579

$395,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,674 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 90 Days on market

Built 2018 7,074 sqft lot $11/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 14161 Arbor Pines Dr, a beautifully maintained 5-bedroom home offering exceptional value for under $400K. This property has been meticulously cared for, showcasing true pride of ownership throughout every room. From the spotless interiors to the well-kept exterior, every detail reflects consistent maintenance and thoughtful upkeep. With five spacious bedrooms, there’s plenty of room for family, guests, or a home office setup. The home features several updates like new paint on the exterior, garage floor, and front door (2025) waterproof Wood Laminate throughout, including staircase (2025) and a new stainless steel refrigerator (2025) to name a few. This well cared for at this price point are rare, making this an incredible opportunity close to interstate 75, shopping, and entertainment right in the heart of Riverview.

Key facts

• 7,074 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2018

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $395k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-359 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $331k (16.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $318k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $318k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#134 in FL, #2,000 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 461 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($116k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.4%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($371k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $233k; list at $395k implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $317,669 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.90%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.42% appreciation · 1.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-65,664
• Equity at exit: $87,427

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-84,079
• Equity at exit: $85,214

Cash invested: $110,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33579

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 461
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,177 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,071
• Tax from tax record: −$622 /mo · $7,465/yr
• Insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$11
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$667
• Net cashflow: $-359

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,632

Max offer price $331,495

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-136	-5% $-248	+0% $-359	+5% $-471	+10% $-583
Rent	-10% $-610	-5% $-485	+0% $-359	+5% $-234	+10% $-109
Rate	-1.0pp $-161	-0.5pp $-259	base $-359	+0.5pp $-462	+1.0pp $-566

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,750
• Closing costs: $11,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14153 Arbor Pines Dr Riverview, FL	5.0	2.5	2889	$3,586	$1.24	25d	1	0.04mi
13924 Arbor Pines Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	1920	$2,545	$1.33	25d	1	0.14mi
11201 Hudson Hills Ln Riverview, FL	5.0	2.5	2254	$2,450	$1.09	15d	1	0.22mi
11167 Leland Groves Dr Riverview, FL	5.0	3.0	2526	$3,500	$1.39	25d	1	0.22mi
11176 Leland Groves Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2318	$2,700	$1.16	6d	1	0.26mi
14112 Poke Ridge Dr Riverview, FL	5.0	3.5	3467	$3,200	$0.92	25d	1	0.34mi
10638 Aldo Moro Dr Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.5	2803	$2,800	$1.00	25d	1	0.49mi
10614 Shady Branch Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2482	$2,286	$0.92	15d	1	0.57mi
11510 Harlan Eddy Ct Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	2351	$2,700	$1.15	25d	1	0.82mi
14435 Barley Field Dr Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.0	2046	$2,231	$1.09	15d	1	0.87mi
14437 Barley Field Dr Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.5	2280	$2,296	$1.01	25d	1	0.88mi
13625 Silver Charm Ct Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	1907	$2,350	$1.23	25d	1	0.89mi
13655 Artesa Bell Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	3.0	2351	$3,075	$1.31	6d	1	0.89mi
11009 Golden Silence Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2154	$2,800	$1.30	25d	1	0.89mi
13714 Artesa Bell Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	4.5	3453	$3,300	$0.96	25d	1	0.94mi
11211 Flora Springs Dr Riverview, FL	5.0	3.0	2320	$2,723	$1.17	24d	1	0.97mi
10505 Opus Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	1942	$2,550	$1.31	25d	1	1.15mi
10237 Carloway Hills Dr Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.5	1914	$2,526	$1.32	0d	1	1.16mi
10220 Newminster Loop Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.5	2483	$2,315	$0.93	15d	1	1.20mi
10438 Carloway Hills Dr Wimauma, FL	4.0	3.0	1860	$2,500	$1.34	25d	1	1.20mi
13423 Beechberry Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2322	$2,800	$1.21	3d	1	1.26mi
10125 Count Fleet Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	3.0	2529	$2,850	$1.13	13d	1	1.26mi
10279 Newminster Loop Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.5	2576	$2,395	$0.93	25d	1	1.27mi
10904 Summerton Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	3.0	2977	$3,150	$1.06	4d	1	1.40mi
10114 Point Given Ct Sun City Center, FL	4.0	2.5	2162	$2,327	$1.08	25d	1	1.40mi
11618 Ashton Field Ave Riverview, FL	4.0	3.0	2114	$2,400	$1.14	0d	1	1.48mi
11519 Misty Isle Ln Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,600	$1.34	25d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $11 · $132/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $395,000 Pending 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $395,000 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $395,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-03-03
   listed $395,000 Active 847-char remark

   Show marketing remark (847 chars)

   Welcome to 14161 Arbor Pines Dr, a beautifully maintained 5-bedroom home offering exceptional value for under $400K. This property has been meticulously cared for, showcasing true pride of ownership throughout every room. From the spotless interiors to the well-kept exterior, every detail reflects consistent maintenance and thoughtful upkeep. With five spacious bedrooms, there’s plenty of room for family, guests, or a home office setup. The home features several updates like new paint on the exterior, garage floor, and front door (2025) waterproof Wood Laminate throughout, including staircase (2025) and a new stainless steel refrigerator (2025) to name a few. This well cared for at this price point are rare, making this an incredible opportunity close to interstate 75, shopping, and entertainment right in the heart of Riverview.

5. 2022-09-16
   historical
6. 2022-06-22
   listed $474,971 Active
7. 2018-08-02
   soldstatus $232,990 Sold
8. 2018-07-09
   status Pending
9. 2018-07-06
   price $229,990
10. 2018-06-28
    price $235,990
11. 2018-06-08
    price $237,990
12. 2018-06-01
    price $236,990
13. 2018-05-08
    listed $243,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,465 · $622/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,465 · $622/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 5 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,120
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,126
• − Property taxes: −$7,465
• − Insurance: −$1,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,050
• − Management: −$3,050
• − HOA: −$132
• − Depreciation: −$11,491
• Taxable loss: −$11,168
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,680
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,634/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Riverview

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #134
• US rank: #2000

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Riverview, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 137,988
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 49,470
• Household income: $116,134
• Rent vs Own: 16.5% rent · 83.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 258.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 24% Two or more races 19% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1% British 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Current HPI: 240.5825
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.18%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+61.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Listed $395,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-16 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-22 Listed $474,971 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-02 Sold (MLS) $232,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-06 Price Changed $229,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-28 Price Changed $235,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-08 Price Changed $237,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-01 Price Changed $236,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-08 Listed $243,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+17.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,465 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.