467 Lindsey Dr · Lakeland, FL 33809

$260,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,240 sqft · Manufactured public records · 11 Days on market

Built 2002 10,171 sqft lot $16/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very nice, open and bright design featuring living room, dining room and spacious family room. Volume ceilings, lots of natural light and lots of storage! An enormous island Kitchen with all appliances is sure to please the cook in the family! The master suite features large walk-in closet, corner garden tub, separate shower and dual sink vanity. Other features include screened lanai, fenced backyard, inside laundry and two car carport. Must see!

Key facts

• Large storage area
• Screened back porch
• Ample cabinet space

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• SCREENED BACK PORCH
• FENCED BACKYARD
• TWO CAR CARPORT
• LARGE STORAGE AREA
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property classified as residential, manufactured home; Living area about 2,240 sq ft, total building area about 2,345 sq ft; Lot approximately 0.23 acres (dimensions 90 x 113)
• Financial info: No lease restrictions indicated
• HOA & community: HOA with annual fee of $195 (monthly equivalent $16.25); Association name: Norma Trassa; No association fee requirement for approval listed; Pets allowed: cats and dogs; Pond maintained by HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Driveway; 2-space carport
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One level; South-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a manufactured home (double wide)
• Exterior features: Rear screened porch; Lighting; Private mailbox; Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Exterior storage; Chain link fencing; Pond view (pond maintained by HOA); Cleared, landscaped lot; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Wood-burning fireplace in family room
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Kitchen open to family room; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Window treatments (blinds)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer included; Inside utility / storage rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $281 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (8.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (8.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: R. Clem Churchwell Elementary School (math 46% / reading 44%, grade D-, #1,271 of 2,144 statewide, top 60%, 708 students, 53% FRL); Lake Gibson Senior High School (math 16% / reading 38%, grade F, #478 of 667 statewide, top 73%, 2,080 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 259 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $260k implies a 231% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,271 (8.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.63%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-29,795
• Equity at exit: $38,767

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-24,708
• Equity at exit: $22,480

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33809

• Home prices YoY: -20.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,373 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,266/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$16
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $281

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,017

Max offer price $260,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $428	-5% $355	+0% $281	+5% $208	+10% $134
Rent	-10% $94	-5% $187	+0% $281	+5% $375	+10% $469
Rate	-1.0pp $412	-0.5pp $347	base $281	+0.5pp $214	+1.0pp $145

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8328 Wilder Pines Ave Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.5	2107	$2,650	$1.26	4d	1	0.53mi
7867 Country Chase Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1896	$1,900	$1.00	24d	1	1.07mi
8004 Settlers Creek Ln Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	2108	$2,300	$1.09	24d	1	1.18mi
111 Lindale St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,350	$1.68	24d	1	1.27mi
142 Lindale St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,895	$1.28	24d	1	1.28mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $16 · $192/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $260,000 Pending 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $260,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $260,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $260,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $260,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $260,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $260,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $260,000 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-01
    listed $260,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,266 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,158 · $180/mo
• Expected delta: +$892/yr (+$74/mo · 70.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,473
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$1,266
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,278
• − Management: −$2,278
• − HOA: −$192
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$968
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$232
• After-tax cash flow: $3,606/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,797
• Household income: $70,066
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 924.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 11% Two or more races 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 1% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.46%
• Current HPI: 301.3054
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.65%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+73.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Listed $260,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $78,500 Public Records
• 2015-04-27 Sold (MLS) $78,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-02-25 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-02-10 Listed $78,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2006-04-20 Sold (MLS) $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-12-14 Listed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,266 · +12.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.