153 Dove Dr · Dover Plains, NY 12522

$189,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Manufactured · 22 Days on market

Built 2002 Good condition 5,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home has an open Kitchen with a dining area and a beautiful front porch. Home is located in a lovely Mobile Home Park for residents 55 years of age and older. Lot rent includes Taxes, Garbage, Water, Septic, Street Lights, and Road Maintenance.,FOUNDATION:Block,InteriorFeatures:Electric Dryer Connection,Electric Stove Connection,Washer Connection,AMENITIES:Medical Facility,EQUIPMENT:Smoke Detectors,OTHERROOMS:Laundry/Util. Room,Cooling:Ceiling Fan,ROOF:Fiberglass Shingles,ExteriorFeatures:Outside Lighting,AboveGrade:1344,FLOORING:Vinyl

Key facts

• Front porch
• Block foundation
• Dining area

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• DINING AREA
• FRONT PORCH
• BLOCK FOUNDATION
• ELECTRIC DRYER CONNECTION
• ELECTRIC STOVE CONNECTION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $187k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#818 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, cost of living B; Watch: commute C-, housing D+, amenities F.
• Dover Union Free School District (rural): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #433 of 590 in NY (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dover Elementary School (math 33% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,509 of 2,108 statewide, top 72%, 296 students, 71% FRL); Dover Middle School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #418 of 729 statewide, top 59%, 301 students, 68% FRL); Dover High School (math 92% / reading 74%, grade A, #435 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 467 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 38% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $190k implies a 137% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $187,051 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.27%
• DSCR: 2.48
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.71×
• Total profit: $197,378
• Equity at exit: $171,077

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.4%
• Equity multiple: 10.54×
• Total profit: $507,509
• Equity at exit: $368,934

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12522

• Home prices YoY: 17.7%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,527 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$237 /mo · $2,848/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$741
• Net cashflow: $1,474

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,661

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,606	-5% $1,540	+0% $1,474	+5% $1,409	+10% $1,343
Rent	-10% $1,196	-5% $1,335	+0% $1,474	+5% $1,614	+10% $1,753
Rate	-1.0pp $1,570	-0.5pp $1,523	base $1,474	+0.5pp $1,425	+1.0pp $1,375

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   listed $189,900 Active
3. 2019-07-19
   soldstatus $80,000 546-char remark

   Show marketing remark (546 chars)

   This home has an open Kitchen with a dining area and a beautiful front porch. Home is located in a lovely Mobile Home Park for residents 55 years of age and older. Lot rent includes Taxes, Garbage, Water, Septic, Street Lights, and Road Maintenance.,FOUNDATION:Block,InteriorFeatures:Electric Dryer Connection,Electric Stove Connection,Washer Connection,AMENITIES:Medical Facility,EQUIPMENT:Smoke Detectors,OTHERROOMS:Laundry/Util. Room,Cooling:Ceiling Fan,ROOF:Fiberglass Shingles,ExteriorFeatures:Outside Lighting,AboveGrade:1344,FLOORING:Vinyl

4. 2019-01-04
   listed $89,900 546-char remark

   Show marketing remark (546 chars)

   This home has an open Kitchen with a dining area and a beautiful front porch. Home is located in a lovely Mobile Home Park for residents 55 years of age and older. Lot rent includes Taxes, Garbage, Water, Septic, Street Lights, and Road Maintenance.,FOUNDATION:Block,InteriorFeatures:Electric Dryer Connection,Electric Stove Connection,Washer Connection,AMENITIES:Medical Facility,EQUIPMENT:Smoke Detectors,OTHERROOMS:Laundry/Util. Room,Cooling:Ceiling Fan,ROOF:Fiberglass Shingles,ExteriorFeatures:Outside Lighting,AboveGrade:1344,FLOORING:Vinyl

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥96°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,329
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,848
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,386
• − Management: −$3,386
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable income: $15,597
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,743
• After-tax cash flow: $13,949/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with cosmetic updates needed to enhance its resale and rental value. Key areas for improvement include kitchen cabinets, bathroom fixtures, and landscaping.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — Aesthetic update needed.
• Minor bathroom fixtures — Update to modernize the space.
• Minor landscaping — Enhance curb appeal with landscaping improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Replace kitchen cabinets — Modern cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics.
• Both Replace bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures improve functionality and aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value.
• Both HVAC service — Maintains comfort and energy efficiency, improving both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · Aesthetic update needed.	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · Update to modernize the space.	Minor	$500–3,000
landscaping · Enhance curb appeal with landscaping improvements.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Replace kitchen cabinets — Modern cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics. ↑
• Both Replace bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures improve functionality and aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both HVAC service — Maintains comfort and energy efficiency, improving both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dover Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609210
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $58,267
• Composite: 40.25/100
• National rank: #3768
• State rank: #433 of 590 in NY

Livability — Dover Plains

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #818
• US rank: #15806

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living B Crime A Employment D- Housing D+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dover Plains, NY
• Population (ZIP): 5,074

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Scandinavian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 39.50%
• Current HPI: 262.8121
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+111.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Listed $189,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-19 Sold (MLS) $80,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-04 Listed $89,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid