4367 Palmetto Grove Ln · Baytown, TX 77521

$103,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 120 Days on market

Built 2022 6,307 sqft lot $54/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW! Lennar Cottage Collection "Camellia" Plan with Brick Elevation "A" in Wooster Trails! This single-story home has a smart layout that is perfect for growing families. The front door leads to an open concept living area that is ideal for daily activities and entertaining guests with a modern kitchen, dining room and family room, all side by side. Three bedrooms share a hall bathroom at the front of the home, while the owner’s suite is tucked into the back with a private bathroom and large walk-in closet. *HOME ESTIMATED TO BE COMPLETE, June, 2022* **Oversized Homesite with NO REAR NEIGHBORS**

Key facts

• 6,307 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2022

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $104k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $872 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $104k).
• Recommended offer: $95k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.4% vs local median 4.2% in Baytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: E F Green Junior School (1,020 students, 67% FRL); Goose Creek Memorial (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #924 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 2,223 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 612 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $718 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.5% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($95k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,549 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.99%
• DSCR: 2.60
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $283,920
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4507 Frontier Trl	0.33mi	4/2.0	1,851 (+10%)	1mo	$286,900	$155	67
9235 Speckled Trout Dr	0.67mi	4/2.0	1,720 (+2%)	3mo	$290,990	$169	63
9211 Speckled Trout Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,720 (+2%)	4mo	$297,990	$173	62
9311 Speckled Trout Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0	1,720 (+2%)	4mo	$293,990	$171	61
9223 Speckled Trout Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,760 (+5%)	2mo	$290,990	$165	60
9207 Speckled Trout Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,760 (+5%)	3mo	$290,990	$165	60
9507 Dazzling Tentacle Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,760 (+5%)	0mo	$286,990	$163	59
9303 Speckled Trout Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0	1,760 (+5%)	3mo	$289,990	$165	58
4146 Oakland View St	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,470 (-12%)	4mo	$199,999	$136	56
9226 Callum Nest Ct	0.74mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,749 (+4%)	1mo	$313,990	$180	51
9215 Speckled Trout Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,522 (-9%)	4mo	$281,990	$185	46
9239 Speckled Trout Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,522 (-9%)	4mo	$279,990	$184	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $35,657
• Equity at exit: $15,492

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.11×
• Total profit: $90,380
• Equity at exit: $8,983

Cash invested: $29,092 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77521

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 612
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,082 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$545
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$130 /mo · $1,558/yr
• Insurance: −$43
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $872

Break-even live

Break-even rent $977

Max offer price $103,900

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,975
• Closing costs: $3,117
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8814 Bar Harbor Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1683	$1,896	$1.13	24d	1	0.09mi
9214 Burnet Fields Dr Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,801	$1.23	43d	1	0.33mi
9502 Brookside Point Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	3.0	2119	$2,800	$1.32	43d	1	0.53mi
4730 Black Rock St Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$2,073	$1.35	17d	1	0.68mi
8110 Berkely Ct Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1828	$1,946	$1.06	5d	1	0.93mi
5426 Cinnamon Lake Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.5	2240	$2,200	$0.98	43d	1	1.25mi
7453 Eastpoint Blvd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,900	$1.25	43d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $103,900 Pending 120 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $103,900 Pending 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $103,900 Pending 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $103,900 Pending 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $103,900 Pending 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $103,900 Pending 111 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $103,900 Pending 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $103,900 Pending 106 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $103,900 Pending 105 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $103,900 Pending 104 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $103,900 Pending 103 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $103,900 Pending 102 DOM
13. 2026-02-19
    status Pending
14. 2026-02-18
    listed $103,900 Active
15. 2022-06-30
    soldstatus Sold 630-char remark

    Show marketing remark (630 chars)

    NEW! Lennar Cottage Collection "Camellia" Plan with Brick Elevation "A" in Wooster Trails! This single-story home has a smart layout that is perfect for growing families. The front door leads to an open concept living area that is ideal for daily activities and entertaining guests with a modern kitchen, dining room and family room, all side by side. Three bedrooms share a hall bathroom at the front of the home, while the owner’s suite is tucked into the back with a private bathroom and large walk-in closet. *HOME ESTIMATED TO BE COMPLETE, June, 2022* **Oversized Homesite with NO REAR NEIGHBORS**

16. 2022-05-08
    status Pending 630-char remark

    Show marketing remark (630 chars)

    NEW! Lennar Cottage Collection "Camellia" Plan with Brick Elevation "A" in Wooster Trails! This single-story home has a smart layout that is perfect for growing families. The front door leads to an open concept living area that is ideal for daily activities and entertaining guests with a modern kitchen, dining room and family room, all side by side. Three bedrooms share a hall bathroom at the front of the home, while the owner’s suite is tucked into the back with a private bathroom and large walk-in closet. *HOME ESTIMATED TO BE COMPLETE, June, 2022* **Oversized Homesite with NO REAR NEIGHBORS**

17. 2022-05-05
    price $260,000 630-char remark

    Show marketing remark (630 chars)

    NEW! Lennar Cottage Collection "Camellia" Plan with Brick Elevation "A" in Wooster Trails! This single-story home has a smart layout that is perfect for growing families. The front door leads to an open concept living area that is ideal for daily activities and entertaining guests with a modern kitchen, dining room and family room, all side by side. Three bedrooms share a hall bathroom at the front of the home, while the owner’s suite is tucked into the back with a private bathroom and large walk-in closet. *HOME ESTIMATED TO BE COMPLETE, June, 2022* **Oversized Homesite with NO REAR NEIGHBORS**

18. 2022-04-29
    listed $270,990 Active 630-char remark

    Show marketing remark (630 chars)

    NEW! Lennar Cottage Collection "Camellia" Plan with Brick Elevation "A" in Wooster Trails! This single-story home has a smart layout that is perfect for growing families. The front door leads to an open concept living area that is ideal for daily activities and entertaining guests with a modern kitchen, dining room and family room, all side by side. Three bedrooms share a hall bathroom at the front of the home, while the owner’s suite is tucked into the back with a private bathroom and large walk-in closet. *HOME ESTIMATED TO BE COMPLETE, June, 2022* **Oversized Homesite with NO REAR NEIGHBORS**

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,979
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,820
• − Property taxes: −$1,558
• − Insurance: −$520
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,998
• − Management: −$1,998
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$3,023
• Taxable income: $9,414
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,259
• After-tax cash flow: $8,210/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,038
• Household income: $73,629
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2121.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 28% Two or more races 18% Black 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.80%
• Current HPI: 246.1892
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-61.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listed $103,900 HARMLS
• 2022-06-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-05-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-05-05 Price Changed $260,000 HARMLS
• 2022-04-29 Listed $270,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+85.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,568 · -11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.