Countryside Plan · Iowa Colony, TX 77583

$279,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,502 sqft · SingleFamily · 132 Days on market

Good condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One-story | 3 bedrooms | 2 baths | 1-car attached garage * * Photos are representative, selections & features may vary with community * *

Key facts

• Parking
• Listed 131 days

🏗️ New construction. The $279,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $314,500.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-204 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (10.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.2% in Iowa Colony — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#757 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1736 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 86% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $246,391 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.78%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $314,500
• List price: $279,990
• Delta: -10.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5210 Capricorn Way	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,441 (-4%)	11mo	$274,990	$191	82
5111 Getty Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,631 (+9%)	6mo	$344,990	$212	67
10011 Agave Point Ct	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,714 (+14%)	7mo	$309,000	$180	66
5243 Palo Verde Dr	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,714 (+14%)	4mo	$319,990	$187	66
5258 Capricorn Way	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,699 (+13%)	9mo	$265,000	$156	66
10011 Nectar Path	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,714 (+14%)	10mo	$300,000	$175	62
10123 Crescendo Way	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,360 (-10%)	13mo	$269,990	$199	62
10011 Rosette Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,714 (+14%)	9mo	$325,000	$190	61
5131 Getty Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,685 (+12%)	9mo	$389,055	$231	60
10055 Nectar Path	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,714 (+14%)	12mo	$300,000	$175	59
10027 Nectar Path	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,714 (+14%)	13mo	$324,990	$190	59
10010 Rosette Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,714 (+14%)	10mo	$319,990	$187	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-70,159
• Equity at exit: $46,893

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-102,056
• Equity at exit: $27,192

Cash invested: $88,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 53 active · 8 under contract
• Months of supply: 28.9 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $353,990 ($214/sqft)
• Median days on market: 132 d
• This list price: 4% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -2.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1736
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,493 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,649
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$393 /mo · $4,718/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $-204

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,751

Max offer price $285,030

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $14	-5% $-95	+0% $-204	+5% $-312	+10% $-421
Rent	-10% $-401	-5% $-302	+0% $-204	+5% $-105	+10% $-7
Rate	-1.0pp $-45	-0.5pp $-124	base $-204	+0.5pp $-285	+1.0pp $-368

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,625
• Closing costs: $9,435
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10035 Crescendo Way Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1446	$2,275	$1.57	70d	1	0.08mi
5602 Caracara St Manvel, TX	2.0	2.0	1892	$2,200	$1.16	10d	1	0.58mi
9510 Turnstone Dr Arcola, TX	2.0	2.0	1892	$2,495	$1.32	94d	1	0.65mi
4143 Champlain Way Iowa Colony, TX	3.0	3.0	1839	$2,400	$1.31	38d	1	1.07mi
10327 Armstrong Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1956	$2,291	$1.17	139d	1	1.15mi
10526 Cabot Trl Iowa Colony, TX	3.0	2.5	1927	$2,500	$1.30	54d	1	1.18mi
4018 Champlain Way Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.5	1897	$1,500	$0.79	103d	1	1.19mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price available (listing active)

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Home design: Single-family home (plan: Countryside)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,502 (living area provided)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Active new construction plan (Countryside)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $279,990 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $279,990 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $279,990 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $279,990 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $279,990 Active 128 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $279,990 Active 127 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $279,990 Active 126 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $279,990 Active 125 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $279,990 Active 124 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $279,990 Active 123 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $279,990 Active 122 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $279,990 Active 121 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $279,990 Active 120 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $279,990 Active 119 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $279,990 Active 113 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $279,990 Active 112 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $279,990 Active 110 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $279,990 Active 108 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $279,990 Active 106 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $279,990 Active 105 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $279,990 Active 104 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $279,990 Active 103 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $279,990 Active 102 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $279,990 Active 101 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $279,990 Active 100 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $279,990 Active 99 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $279,990 Active 98 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $279,990 Active 97 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $279,990 Active 96 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $279,990 Active 95 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $279,990 Active 94 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $279,990 Active 93 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $279,990 Active 92 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $279,990 Active 91 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $279,990 Active 90 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $279,990 Active 89 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $279,990 Active 88 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $279,990 Active 87 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $279,990 Active 86 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $279,990 Active 85 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $279,990 Active 83 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $279,990 Active 82 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $279,990 Active 81 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $279,990 Active 80 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $279,990 Active 77 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $279,990 Active 75 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $279,990 Active 74 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $279,990 Active 72 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $279,990 Active 70 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $279,990 Active 69 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,921
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,617
• − Property taxes: −$4,718
• − Insurance: −$1,572
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,394
• − Management: −$2,394
• − Depreciation: −$9,149
• Taxable loss: −$7,923
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,901
• After-tax cash flow: $-543/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,510–$22,530 screening

This one-story home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. Upgrades to the exterior, interior, and systems can significantly increase its value for resale or rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Updating the interior can make the home more appealing and increase its value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and increase the home's resale value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the bathrooms — Upgraded bathrooms can significantly increase the home's resale value and attract more buyers. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A newer, more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the flooring — Upgraded flooring can make the home more appealing and increase its value, both for resale and rental purposes. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 64/100

Livability — Iowa Colony

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #757
• US rank: #13904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Iowa Colony, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 420,414 people
• City population: 52,747
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own

---

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price available (listing active)

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Home design: Single-family home (plan: Countryside)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,502 (living area provided)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Active new construction plan (Countryside)