5915 Ridge Rd · Chamberlayne, VA 23227

$327,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,803 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1955 0.49 ac lot $181/sqft · 7% below area Est $350k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brick rancher 1800+ Sq. Ft. in Chamberlayne Farms subdivision. Interior features Living room with fireplace, Dining room wood floors, Family room, Study, Kitchen with breakfast bar, Utility room with washer and dryer, 3-bedrooms and 2 full baths. Newer HVAC system Exterior has large yard with driveway, rear carport and newer roof. Located near the interstate, businesses, schools, parks, stores and restaurants. Don't miss this one!!

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Large yard
• Rear carport

Tags

• LIVING ROOM WITH FIREPLACE
• DINING ROOM WOOD FLOORS
• KITCHEN WITH BREAKFAST BAR
• LARGE YARD
• REAR CARPORT
• NEWER ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $327k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-126 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $305k (6.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (25.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#149 in VA, #4,786 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Henrico County Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #68 of 131 in VA (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.0%/yr); 114 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,826 units permitted in Henrico County in 2024 (785 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henrico County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $158k; list at $327k implies a 107% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $243,671 (25.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.65%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $350,000
• List price: $327,000
• Delta: -6.57%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5915 Ridge Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,803 (0%)	0mo	$320,000	$177	100
1122 Glidewell Rd	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,792 (-1%)	0mo	$275,000	$153	73
7415 Hawthorne Ave	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,808 (+0%)	6mo	$395,000	$218	66
5918 Brookfield Rd	0.29mi	3/2.0	2,021 (+12%)	1mo	$401,000	$198	65
6312 Fredonia Rd	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,650 (-8%)	2mo	$394,950	$239	62
6020 Bonneau Rd	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,692 (-6%)	5mo	$360,000	$213	58
5626 Noble Ave	0.69mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,680 (-7%)	1mo	$425,000	$253	49
5601 Noble Ave	0.72mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,731 (-4%)	6mo	$449,500	$260	48
5800 W Rois Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,562 (-13%)	4mo	$375,000	$240	47
8414 Penobscot Rd	0.63mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,000 (+11%)	2mo	$360,000	$180	44
903 Glidewell Rd	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,580 (-12%)	8mo	$332,000	$210	43
7701 Hawthorne Ave	0.63mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,052 (+14%)	6mo	$457,000	$223	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-65,892
• Equity at exit: $48,757

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-87,010
• Equity at exit: $28,273

Cash invested: $91,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23227

• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,437 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,715
• Tax from tax record: −$200 /mo · $2,395/yr
• Insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $-126

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,596

Max offer price $304,798

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $59	-5% $-33	+0% $-126	+5% $-218	+10% $-311
Rent	-10% $-318	-5% $-222	+0% $-126	+5% $-29	+10% $67
Rate	-1.0pp $39	-0.5pp $-43	base $-126	+0.5pp $-210	+1.0pp $-297

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,750
• Closing costs: $9,810
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5612 Moss Side Ave Richmond, VA	3.0	2.5	1940	$2,695	$1.39	44d	1	0.68mi
1107 Ironington Rd Richmond, VA	3.0	1.0	1306	$2,200	$1.68	3d	1	0.70mi
417 Rivanna Hill Rd Glen Allen, VA	3.0	2.0	1720	$2,680	$1.56	44d	1	1.19mi
421 Rivanna Hill Rd Glen Allen, VA	3.0	2.0	1725	$2,495	$1.45	24d	1	1.19mi
470 Rivanna Hill Rd Glen Allen, VA	3.0	3.5	2138	$2,680	$1.25	44d	1	1.20mi
229 Ashbury Hills Dr Richmond, VA	4.0	2.5	2500	$3,200	$1.28	24d	1	1.31mi
8837 Foxway Ridge Ln Glen Allen, VA	3.0	3.5	2200	$2,800	$1.27	18d	1	1.33mi
9218 Magellan Pkwy Unit A Glen Allen, VA	3.0	2.5	1573	$2,195	$1.40	44d	1	1.46mi
304 Northfield Heights Ln Richmond, VA	4.0	2.5	1797	$2,850	$1.59	18d	1	1.46mi
648 Brookwood Glen Ter Glen Allen, VA	3.0	2.5	2345	$2,695	$1.15	24d	1	1.48mi
809 Birchwood Hill Pl Unit B Glen Allen, VA	3.0	2.5	2452	$2,650	$1.08	24d	1	1.49mi
642 Brookwood Glen Ter Unit B Glen Allen, VA	3.0	2.5	2345	$2,600	$1.11	24d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Pending 435-char remark

   Show marketing remark (435 chars)

   Brick rancher 1800+ Sq. Ft. in Chamberlayne Farms subdivision. Interior features Living room with fireplace, Dining room wood floors, Family room, Study, Kitchen with breakfast bar, Utility room with washer and dryer, 3-bedrooms and 2 full baths. Newer HVAC system Exterior has large yard with driveway, rear carport and newer roof. Located near the interstate, businesses, schools, parks, stores and restaurants. Don't miss this one!!

2. 2026-05-02
   status Active 435-char remark

   Show marketing remark (435 chars)

   Brick rancher 1800+ Sq. Ft. in Chamberlayne Farms subdivision. Interior features Living room with fireplace, Dining room wood floors, Family room, Study, Kitchen with breakfast bar, Utility room with washer and dryer, 3-bedrooms and 2 full baths. Newer HVAC system Exterior has large yard with driveway, rear carport and newer roof. Located near the interstate, businesses, schools, parks, stores and restaurants. Don't miss this one!!

3. 2026-04-22
   status Pending 435-char remark

   Show marketing remark (435 chars)

   Brick rancher 1800+ Sq. Ft. in Chamberlayne Farms subdivision. Interior features Living room with fireplace, Dining room wood floors, Family room, Study, Kitchen with breakfast bar, Utility room with washer and dryer, 3-bedrooms and 2 full baths. Newer HVAC system Exterior has large yard with driveway, rear carport and newer roof. Located near the interstate, businesses, schools, parks, stores and restaurants. Don't miss this one!!

4. 2026-04-07
   listed $327,000 Active 435-char remark

   Show marketing remark (435 chars)

   Brick rancher 1800+ Sq. Ft. in Chamberlayne Farms subdivision. Interior features Living room with fireplace, Dining room wood floors, Family room, Study, Kitchen with breakfast bar, Utility room with washer and dryer, 3-bedrooms and 2 full baths. Newer HVAC system Exterior has large yard with driveway, rear carport and newer roof. Located near the interstate, businesses, schools, parks, stores and restaurants. Don't miss this one!!

5. 2003-11-17
   soldstatus $158,000
6. 2003-11-14
   soldstatus $158,000 358-char remark

   Show marketing remark (358 chars)

   THIS IS THE ONE YOU HAVE BEEN WAITING FOR!! FOUR BEDROOM BRICK EXPANDED RANCHER WITH A PAVED DRIVEWAY AND A TWO-CAR CARPORT THAT DOUBLES AS A PATIO. HUGE FENCED REAR YARD WITH STORAGE SHED. YARD IS IMMACULATELY LANDSCAPED & WELL-MAINTAINED AND MANICURED. UPON ENTERING THIS HOME YOU ENTER INTO THE HUGE LIVING ROOM THAT ALLOWS A BREATHTAKING VIEW OF T

7. 2003-11-14
   soldstatus $158,000

   Show marketing remark (358 chars)

   THIS IS THE ONE YOU HAVE BEEN WAITING FOR!! FOUR BEDROOM BRICK EXPANDED RANCHER WITH A PAVED DRIVEWAY AND A TWO-CAR CARPORT THAT DOUBLES AS A PATIO. HUGE FENCED REAR YARD WITH STORAGE SHED. YARD IS IMMACULATELY LANDSCAPED & WELL-MAINTAINED AND MANICURED. UPON ENTERING THIS HOME YOU ENTER INTO THE HUGE LIVING ROOM THAT ALLOWS A BREATHTAKING VIEW OF T

8. 2003-09-14
   listed $159,950 358-char remark

   Show marketing remark (358 chars)

   THIS IS THE ONE YOU HAVE BEEN WAITING FOR!! FOUR BEDROOM BRICK EXPANDED RANCHER WITH A PAVED DRIVEWAY AND A TWO-CAR CARPORT THAT DOUBLES AS A PATIO. HUGE FENCED REAR YARD WITH STORAGE SHED. YARD IS IMMACULATELY LANDSCAPED & WELL-MAINTAINED AND MANICURED. UPON ENTERING THIS HOME YOU ENTER INTO THE HUGE LIVING ROOM THAT ALLOWS A BREATHTAKING VIEW OF T

9. 2003-09-14
   listed $159,950

   Show marketing remark (358 chars)

   THIS IS THE ONE YOU HAVE BEEN WAITING FOR!! FOUR BEDROOM BRICK EXPANDED RANCHER WITH A PAVED DRIVEWAY AND A TWO-CAR CARPORT THAT DOUBLES AS A PATIO. HUGE FENCED REAR YARD WITH STORAGE SHED. YARD IS IMMACULATELY LANDSCAPED & WELL-MAINTAINED AND MANICURED. UPON ENTERING THIS HOME YOU ENTER INTO THE HUGE LIVING ROOM THAT ALLOWS A BREATHTAKING VIEW OF T

10. 1993-10-01
    soldstatus $89,950
11. 1992-01-01
    soldstatus $84,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,395 · $200/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,681 · $223/mo
• Expected delta: +$286/yr (+$24/mo · 11.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,241
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,317
• − Property taxes: −$2,395
• − Insurance: −$1,635
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,339
• − Management: −$2,339
• − Depreciation: −$9,513
• Taxable loss: −$7,298
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,752
• After-tax cash flow: $243/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henrico County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101890
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $61,854
• Composite: 49.25/100
• National rank: #2031
• State rank: #68 of 131 in VA

Livability — Chamberlayne

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #4786

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chamberlayne, VA
• County: Henrico County · 334,490 people
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 24,925
• Household income: $69,187
• Rent vs Own: 45.1% rent · 54.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1950.0

Population outlook (Henrico County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,885 people
• By 2030: 384,255 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 416,688 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 442,376 · +20.9%
• By 2075: 488,037 · +33.4%
• By 2100: 487,430 · +33.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 45% White 42% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henrico

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.9) · D 63.7% · R 34.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.6pp toward D · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.9 2020: D+29.0 2016: D+21.0 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -332.25%
• Current HPI: 303.5514
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.00%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+289.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-05-02 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2026-04-22 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $327,000 CVRMLS
• 2003-11-17 Sold (Public Records) $158,000 Public Records
• 2003-11-14 Sold (MLS) $158,000 CVRMLS
• 2003-11-14 Sold (MLS) $158,000 CVRMLS
• 2003-09-14 Listed $159,950 CVRMLS
• 2003-09-14 Listed $159,950 CVRMLS
• 1993-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $89,950 Public Records
• 1992-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $84,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,395 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.