15 Gay St · New York, NY 10014

$4,950,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,001 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1910 1,235 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• Appreciation +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Step into the storybook charm of 15 Gay Street, a rare Greenwich Village townhouse where timeless architecture meets a rich, bohemian past. Built in 1910, this four story, four-unit walk-up spans approximately 3,344 square feet on a 1,235-square-foot lot. Tucked away on one of Manhattan's shortest and most winding lanes, Gay Street curves gracefully between Christopher Street and Waverly Place - an intimate passage lined with 19th-century elegance. Federal-style brick facades from the 1820s and 1830s greet you on one side, while Greek Revival designs from the mid-1800s stand proudly on the other. Every step along its cobblestones hums with history: once home to Black musicians and Village

Key facts

• 1,235 sq ft lot
• Built 1910
• Listed 35 days

Tags

• GREENWICH VILLAGE TOWNHOUSE
• 19TH CENTURY ELEGANCE
• FEDERAL STYLE BRICK FACADES
• GREEK REVIVAL DESIGNS
• PRIME LOCATION INCOME PRODUCER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning includes C4-5
• Financial info: Annual taxes reported

Exterior

• Home design: One-story building; Entry at level 1
• Construction: Green building
• Exterior features: Private outdoor space (over 60 sqft); Terrace

Interior

• Bedrooms: Total of 9 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Smoke-free property; Basement (other)
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath multifamily listed at $4.95M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $62 ($742/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $3.79M (23.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $3.79M (23.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 197 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 4,467 units permitted in New York County in 2024 (4,463 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $37,897/mo this rent would consume 258% of the median local household income ($176k/yr) (locally 2282% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $321k of equity ($34k loan paydown + $286k appreciation (5.8% local appreciation)).
• New York County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.8% appreciation + 7.1% rent growth), your $1.39M cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$513k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($4.80M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $3,789,700 (23.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.05%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.79% appreciation · 7.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $1,531,992
• Equity at exit: $3,044,699

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.54×
• Total profit: $4,909,752
• Equity at exit: $5,464,426

Cash invested: $1,386,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10014

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Rents YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 43.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $37,897 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$25,958
• Tax from tax record: −$1,856 /mo · $22,272/yr
• Insurance: −$2,062
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$7,958
• Net cashflow: $62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $37,819

Max offer price $4,950,000

Occupancy floor 95%

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	2	1.5	$37,896
Total (4 units)			$37,897

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,237,500
• Closing costs: $148,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24 Commerce St Unit 1763 New York, NY	4.0	3.5	2400	$44,000	$18.33	22d	1	0.29mi
71 Horatio St Unit 1 New York, NY	3.0	2.0	1737	$20,000	$11.51	1d	1	0.50mi
125 E 12th St Unit 1C New York, NY	3.0	2.5	2059	$20,000	$9.71	5d	1	0.60mi
112 E 10th St Unit 1021937P New York, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1296	$21,605	$16.66	3d	2	0.66mi
127 Spring St Unit 1035010P New York, NY	3.0	2.0	2798	$24,633	$8.80	24d	1	0.69mi
128 W 26th St #13 New York, NY	3.0	2.0	1426	$13,000	$9.12	24d	1	0.86mi
460 Greenwich St New York, NY	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1750	$14,500	$8.29	3d	2	0.87mi
460 Greenwich St Unit 5 New York, NY	3.0	2.0	1750	$14,500	$8.29	1d	1	0.87mi
11 6th Ave Unit 11A New York, NY	3.0	2.5	1648	$27,500	$16.69	24d	1	1.03mi
31 Walker St Unit 4 New York, NY	3.0	2.0	2000	$13,500	$6.75	19d	1	1.04mi
10 E 29th St New York, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1323	$16,736	$12.65	1d	4	1.04mi
208 W 30th St Unit 501 New York, NY	3.0	2.0	2500	$13,000	$5.20	24d	1	1.07mi
351 W 30th St New York, NY	4.0	2.5	2450	$16,950	$6.92	11d	1	1.16mi
490 2nd Ave Unit 10A New York, NY	4.0	2.0	1400	$10,900	$7.79	24d	1	1.21mi
220 E 30th St Unit 2 New York, NY	3.0	2.5	2200	$11,995	$5.45	24d	1	1.25mi
30 Park Ave Unit 30B New York, NY	3.0	3.0	2773	$28,000	$10.10	24d	1	1.41mi
101 Warren St New York, NY	2.0–3.0	2.5–3.0	1611	$20,250	$12.57	11d	2	1.41mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $4,950,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $4,950,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $4,950,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $4,950,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $4,950,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $4,950,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $4,950,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-08
   listed $4,950,000 Active 24 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $22,272 · $1,856/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $52,963 · $4,414/mo
• Expected delta: +$30,692/yr (+$2,558/mo · 137.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $454,764
• − Mortgage interest: −$277,277
• − Property taxes: −$22,272
• − Insurance: −$24,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$36,381
• − Management: −$36,381
• − Depreciation: −$144,000
• Taxable loss: −$86,297
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$20,711
• After-tax cash flow: $21,453/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: New York County · 1,599,927 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 29,230
• Household income: $176,395
• Rent vs Own: 69.6% rent · 30.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2282.0

Population outlook (New York County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,825,725 people
• By 2030: 1,904,611 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 2,052,719 · +12.4%
• By 2050: 2,206,601 · +20.9%
• By 2075: 2,509,427 · +37.4%
• By 2100: 2,702,933 · +48.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 5% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · New York

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 82.4% · R 17.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 72.2pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+74.5 2016: D+77.2 2012: D+69.6 2008: D+72.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.79%
• Current HPI: 200.1796
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.13%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Relisted — RLS at REBNY
• 2026-04-10 Listed $4,950,000 RLS at REBNY

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $22,272 · -46.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.