21459 Coyote Trl Unit B2 · Lago Vista, TX 78645

$140,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 896 sqft · Condo · 241 Days on market

Built 1984 Fair condition $156/sqft · 6% below area Est $149k · 6% under $142/mo HOA · 10% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Attn: Bargain Hunters – LOWEST-PRICED TOWNHOME ON THE NORTH SIDE OF LAKE TRAVIS! Just a quick 20-minute drive from North Austin and located on CapMetro Bus Route 214, offering an easy commuting option. STR-friendly, updated, and move-in ready 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath townhome with PANORAMIC LAKE TRAVIS AND HILL COUNTRY VIEWS. Enjoy access to Lago Vista POA amenities, including Lake Travis parks, boat ramps, marina access, a community pool, and more. Bar-K Park is about a mile away and offers scenic lake access for boating, kayaking, fishing, and outdoor recreation. It's a great weekend getaway! This two-story home features upscale bamboo floors, fresh interior paint, and an updated bathroom. The layout feels comfortable and spacious, making it an ideal choice for a full-time residence, weekend getaway, or investment property. The expansive front deck is perfect for morning coffee or enjoying peaceful sunsets after a relaxing day on Lake Travis with friends. Priced to attract attention, this lakeview townhome is a rare opportunity to enjoy the Lake Travis lifestyle at an affordable price. Contact the listing agent to schedule a tour today!

Key facts

• Str friendly
• Lake travis parks
• Boat ramps

Tags

• TOWNHOME ON NORTH SIDE
• CAPMETRO BUS ROUTE 214
• STR FRIENDLY
• LAGO VISTA POA AMENITIES
• LAKE TRAVIS PARKS
• BOAT RAMPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $140k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-15 ($-182/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $138k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (1.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.4% in Lago Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#275 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lago Vista ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #269 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lago Vista El (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 502 students, 34% FRL); Lago Vista Middle (math 28% / reading 47%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 433 students, 25% FRL); Lago Vista H S (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #509 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 636 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 1451 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 86d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($113k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 241 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 241 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.47%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $149,033
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -6.06%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21461 Coyote Trl #6	0.03mi	2/1.5	896 (0%)	1mo	$144,000	$161	98
21461 Coyote Trl #3	0.03mi	2/1.5	896 (0%)	1mo	$143,000	$160	98
21461 Coyote Trl #7	0.03mi	2/1.5	896 (0%)	4mo	$145,000	$162	95
21461 Coyote Trl #2	0.03mi	2/1.5	896 (0%)	10mo	$160,000	$179	90
21459 Coyote Trl Unit A2	0.00mi	2/1.5	896 (0%)	13mo	$178,000	$199	89
21459 Coyote Trl Unit B4	0.00mi	2/1.5	896 (0%)	14mo	$150,000	$167	89
21112 Brewer Ln	0.26mi	2/1.0	960 (+7%)	0mo	$345,000	$359	74
7302 Crossbow Trl	0.27mi	2/2.0	840 (-6%)	15mo	$144,900	$173	62
8104 Bronco Ln	1.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	924 (+3%)	1mo	$208,000	$225	52
21403 Ridgeview Rd	0.31mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,056 (+18%)	20mo	$325,000	$308	37
5801 Thunderbird St Unit B-20	1.19mi	2/2.0	1,027 (+15%)	2mo	$165,000	$161	37
5802 Circulo Dr Unit 2B	1.07mi	1/1.5 (-1)	988 (+10%)	18mo	$160,000	$162	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-23,574
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-21,449
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78645

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 1451
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,385 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,100/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$142
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $-15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,404

Max offer price $137,800

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $82	-5% $33	+0% $-15	+5% $-64	+10% $-112
Rent	-10% $-125	-5% $-70	+0% $-15	+5% $40	+10% $94
Rate	-1.0pp $55	-0.5pp $20	base $-15	+0.5pp $-51	+1.0pp $-88

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21461 Coyote Trl Lago Vista, TX	2.0	1.5	896	$1,200	$1.34	3d	1	0.03mi
21461 Coyote Trl #4 Lago Vista, TX	2.0	1.5	896	$1,250	$1.40	47d	1	0.03mi
21461 Coyote Trl #4 Lago Vista, TX	2.0	1.5	896	$1,250	$1.40	10d	1	0.03mi
7113 Comstock Cv Unit Rt side Lago Vista, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$1,000	$1.33	184d	1	0.11mi
21473 Coyote Trl #6 Lago Vista, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$995	$0.99	28d	1	0.15mi
21475 Coyote Trl #2 Lago Vista, TX	2.0	1.0	896	$1,095	$1.22	164d	1	0.19mi
21475 Coyote Trl Unit A Lago Vista, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,295	$1.44	184d	1	0.19mi
21407 Coyote Trl Lago Vista, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,145	$1.15	10d	1	0.23mi
21513 Coyote Trl Unit B Lago Vista, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,175	$1.47	3d	1	0.36mi
5918 Lago Vista Way Unit D35 Lago Vista, TX	1.0	1.0	958	$1,395	$1.46	10d	1	1.04mi
5916 Lago Vista Way Unit B-10 UP Lago Vista, TX	2.0	2.0	1110	$1,295	$1.17	184d	1	1.09mi
5914 Lago Vista Way Unit C23 Lago Vista, TX	2.0	2.0	1037	$1,295	$1.25	164d	1	1.12mi
20800 Bonanza Unit A Lago Vista, TX	2.0	1.0	780	$1,100	$1.41	69d	1	1.12mi
20800 Bonanza Unit C Lago Vista, TX	2.0	1.0	780	$1,100	$1.41	85d	1	1.12mi
20800 Bonanza Unit B Lago Vista, TX	2.0	1.0	780	$1,100	$1.41	10d	1	1.12mi
20802 Bonanza Unit 3 Lago Vista, TX	2.0	2.0	826	$1,100	$1.33	184d	1	1.12mi
20802 Bonanza Apt 2 Lago Vista, TX	2.0	2.0	826	$1,095	$1.33	20d	1	1.12mi
20802 Bonanza Apt 2 Lago Vista, TX	2.0	2.0	826	$1,095	$1.33	10d	1	1.12mi
5909 Lago Vista Way Unit D Lago Vista, TX	2.0	2.0	918	$1,475	$1.61	69d	1	1.15mi
5909 Lago Vista Way Unit B Lago Vista, TX	2.0	2.0	918	$1,645	$1.79	158d	1	1.15mi
20600 Bonanza Unit 4 Leander, TX	2.0	1.0	840	$1,300	$1.55	184d	1	1.18mi
20600 Bonanza Unit 3 Leander, TX	2.0	1.0	840	$1,395	$1.66	122d	1	1.18mi
20600 Bonanza Unit 4 Leander, TX	2.0	1.0	1062	$1,300	$1.22	161d	1	1.18mi
5801 Thunderbird St Unit A-8 Lago Vista, TX	2.0	2.0	1027	$1,100	$1.07	134d	1	1.19mi
20111 Travis Dr Unit A Lago Vista, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,745	$1.75	158d	1	1.35mi
20111 Travis Dr Unit B Lago Vista, TX	2.0	2.0	1075	$1,650	$1.53	69d	1	1.35mi
5509 Thunderbird St Apt B Lago Vista, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,450	$1.53	158d	1	1.37mi
5509 Thunderbird St Apt B Lago Vista, TX	2.0	2.0	955	$1,450	$1.52	10d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail $142/mo · $1,704/yr condo

• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 241 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $140,000 Active 240 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $140,000 Active 239 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $140,000 Active 238 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $140,000 Active 237 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $140,000 Active 235 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $140,000 Active 234 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $140,000 Active 233 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $140,000 Active 232 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $140,000 Active 231 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $140,000 Active 230 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $140,000 Active 229 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $140,000 Active 228 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $140,000 Active 227 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $140,000 Active 226 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $140,000 Active 225 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $140,000 Active 224 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $140,000 Active 223 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $140,000 Active 222 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $140,000 Active 221 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $140,000 Active 220 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $140,000 Active 219 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $140,000 Active 218 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $140,000 Active 217 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $140,000 Active 216 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $140,000 Active 215 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $140,000 Active 214 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $140,000 Active 213 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $140,000 Active 212 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $140,000 Active 211 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $140,000 Active 210 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 209 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $140,000 Active 208 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $140,000 Active 207 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $140,000 Active 206 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $140,000 Active 205 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 204 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 203 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $140,000 Active 202 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $140,000 Active 201 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $140,000 Active 200 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $140,000 Active 199 DOM
43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $140,000 Active 197 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $140,000 Active 196 DOM
45. 2026-09-23
    days on market $140,000 Active 195 DOM
46. 2026-09-22
    days on market $140,000 Active 194 DOM
47. 2026-09-21
    remarks 699-char remark
48. 2026-09-21
    pricedays on market $140,000 Active 193 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $145,000 Active 192 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $145,000 Active 191 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,622
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,100
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,330
• − Management: −$1,330
• − HOA: −$1,704
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$2,456
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$589
• After-tax cash flow: $407/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $4,480–$13,440 screening

This move-in ready townhome offers panoramic views but requires cosmetic updates to its interior and exterior to fully maximize its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls and trim — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace windows with energy-efficient ones — New windows improve energy efficiency and curb appeal ↑
• Both Install new flooring in kitchen and bathrooms — New flooring enhances the look and feel of the home ↑
• Both Upgrade HVAC system — A new HVAC system improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhanced landscaping and curb appeal attract more buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 42/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Lago Vista El F TX #1,545/4,322 Nat'l #19,648/41,679 Middle Lago Vista Middle F TX #736/1,662 Nat'l #6,708/14,009 High Lago Vista H S D TX #509/1,632 Nat'l #5,677/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lago Vista ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826400
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $73,671
• Composite: 38.35/100
• National rank: #4216
• State rank: #269 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Lago Vista

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #275
• US rank: #6393

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lago Vista, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,545,133 people
• City population: 15,256
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,256
• Household income: $113,008
• Rent vs Own: 9.2% rent · 90.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 24% of renters

---

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.02%
• Current HPI: 211.9678
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.98%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+199.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $149,500 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $149,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $148,900 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $147,900 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $146,900 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $145,500 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $145,000 Unlock MLS
• 2008-05-28 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2008-05-28 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2008-04-23 Listed $49,900 Unlock MLS