15176 NE 154th Ln · Lake Kerr, FL 32134

$89,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,797 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1963 0.48 ac lot $50/sqft · 33% below area Est $132k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. INVEST NOW in this solid BLOCK HOME on 1/2 an acre. Make this your home or even better. .. .. .Make this a DUPLEX! Rent one half and live for FREE in the other. 1797 SQ FT plus a covered back porch__Enjoy the benefits of being in the A-1 Zone & being 875 Feet from Eureka West Recreation Area BOAT RAMP & Fishing Pier. The partially fenced yard boasts a HUGE mature FIG TREE , mature OAKS, lemon & citrus trees. NO HOA- NO LOT RENT- NO FLOOD ZONE. This house has no utilities CASH ONLY . Remodel the house & the chicken coop & have your own private getaway in the forest. Located in an area known for fishing, hunting,

Key facts

• Fishing pier
• 1/2 an acre
• Duplex

Tags

• 1/2 AN ACRE
• DUPLEX
• COVERED BACK PORCH
• BOAT RAMP
• FISHING PIER
• PARTIALLY FENCED YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential, single-family residence; Zoning: A1; Condition: Fixer; Living area reported as 1,797 (public records)
• Financial info: Property taxed (annual tax reported separately)
• HOA & community: No HOA/association reported; No CDD

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details reported
• Security: No security features reported
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residential property in fixer condition; One story; Faces west; Entry at ground/one level
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Block and pier (pillar/post/pier) foundation; Built on a 0.48-acre lot (approx. 150 x 120); Vegetation includes fruit trees and oak trees; One well and one septic on site
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Private mailbox; Dirt road access; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances reported
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating reported; No cooling reported
• Interior features: No interior amenities reported; Wood flooring
• Laundry & utility: No laundry features reported

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $682 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.5% vs local median 5.8% in Lake Kerr — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Fort Mccoy School (math 35% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,697 of 2,144 statewide, top 80%, 964 students, 73% FRL); North Marion High School (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #494 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 1,303 students, 66% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Marion average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $17k; list at $89k implies a 424% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,330 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.85%
• DSCR: 2.46
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $131,901
• List price: $89,000
• Delta: -32.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $29,065
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.27×
• Total profit: $81,427
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32134

• Home prices YoY: -24.4%
• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,680 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,698/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $682

Break-even live

Break-even rent $817

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $732	-5% $707	+0% $682	+5% $657	+10% $632
Rent	-10% $549	-5% $616	+0% $682	+5% $748	+10% $815
Rate	-1.0pp $727	-0.5pp $705	base $682	+0.5pp $659	+1.0pp $636

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $89,000 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    listed $89,000 Active 829-char remark
17. 1992-12-01
    soldstatus $17,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,698 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,698 · $141/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,163
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$1,698
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,613
• − Management: −$1,613
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $7,219
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,733
• After-tax cash flow: $6,452/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Kerr

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,400

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.45%
• Current HPI: 224.9549
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+423.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $89,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1992-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+18.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,698 · +12.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.