12609 Southwick Ct · Midlothian, VA 23113

$330,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1984 0.45 ac lot Est $357k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Prime LOCATION- Buckingham with convenient access to everything! New Windows in 2021, New Odyssey Premium Plus Siding in 2021, New Roof in 2017, New Heatpump 2018, New Water Heater 2018. This is house is ready to make your own! Come with all of your great ideas! 4 Bedrooms, 2 Full Baths, Brick Fireplace, Screened Porch, Fenced Yard! Dont let this one slip away! House is being powerwashed on 5/25.

Key facts

• New heatpump
• Brick fireplace
• New water heater

Tags

• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW ROOF
• NEW HEATPUMP
• NEW WATER HEATER
• BRICK FIREPLACE
• SCREENED PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Above-grade finished area reported (details available)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (unpaved)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story exterior appearance (1 story reported); Resale condition; Zoned R9
• Construction: Brick, drywall, vinyl siding and wood siding exterior materials; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Front screened porch; Partially fenced yard; Unpaved driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary and other bedrooms on the first level; additional bedrooms on the second level (total of 4 bedrooms listed)
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms with tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump and electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Main level primary bedroom; Masonry fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on the first level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-84 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $315k (4.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (20.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $263k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.2% in Midlothian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robious Elementary (math 54% / reading 68%, grade B, #524 of 1,108 statewide, top 48%, 662 students, 21% FRL); Midlothian Middle (math 69% / reading 76%, grade A, #61 of 342 statewide, top 18%, 1,368 students, 14% FRL); Midlothian High (math 68% / reading 95%, grade A, #50 of 319 statewide, top 16%, 2,041 students, 14% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 72% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Chesterfield County Public School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 159 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $122k; list at $330k implies a 169% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $263,214 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.22%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $356,832
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1318 Unison Dr	0.18mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,525 (+1%)	1mo	$380,000	$249	82
12505 Mandolin Dr	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,554 (+3%)	1mo	$358,000	$230	73
1312 Oldbury Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,596 (+6%)	4mo	$393,142	$246	73
12502 Whispering Way	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,545 (+2%)	8mo	$340,000	$220	67
1013 Mill Forest Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (+11%)	11mo	$375,000	$223	61
1307 Unison Dr	0.21mi	4/3.0	1,664 (+10%)	11mo	$382,500	$230	61
12212 Deerhurst Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,484 (-2%)	3mo	$385,000	$259	61
12300 Little Pond Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,575 (+4%)	2mo	$395,000	$251	60
12324 Deerhurst Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,484 (-2%)	13mo	$350,000	$236	56
1700 Drifting Cir	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,628 (+8%)	11mo	$385,000	$236	48
12305 Little Pond Ln	0.53mi	4/2.0	1,704 (+13%)	9mo	$389,900	$229	47
1607 Headwaters Rd	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,708 (+13%)	8mo	$415,900	$244	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-49,319
• Equity at exit: $49,204

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-8,020
• Equity at exit: $28,532

Cash invested: $92,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23113

• Rents YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 159
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,632 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax from tax record: −$228 /mo · $2,741/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$553
• Net cashflow: $-84

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,738

Max offer price $315,239

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $103	-5% $10	+0% $-84	+5% $-177	+10% $-270
Rent	-10% $-291	-5% $-188	+0% $-84	+5% $20	+10% $124
Rate	-1.0pp $83	-0.5pp $0	base $-84	+0.5pp $-169	+1.0pp $-256

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,500
• Closing costs: $9,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12703 Mill Forest Ct Midlothian, VA	4.0	3.0	2170	$2,700	$1.24	16d	1	0.15mi
1301 Buckingham Station Dr Midlothian, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1092	$2,210	$2.02	3d	52	0.35mi
13121 Brattice Loop Midlothian, VA	3.0	2.5	1573	$2,400	$1.53	46d	1	0.62mi
13300 Enclave Dr Midlothian, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1044	$1,966	$1.88	3d	14	0.92mi
121 This Midlothian, VA	4.0	3.5	1792	$2,550	$1.42	45d	1	0.98mi
13201 Glenmeadow Ct Midlothian, VA	4.0	2.0	1555	$2,650	$1.70	5d	1	0.99mi
101 Avenda Ln Midlothian, VA	4.0	2.5	1792	$2,625	$1.46	16d	1	0.99mi
13836 Randolph Pond Ln Midlothian, VA	4.0	3.5	2122	$2,700	$1.27	19d	1	1.06mi
13801 Randolph Pond Ln Midlothian, VA	4.0	3.5	2059	$2,995	$1.45	3d	1	1.08mi
1616 Sainsbury Dr Midlothian, VA	4.0	2.5	2161	$1,100	$0.51	13d	1	1.09mi
1724 Featherstone Dr Midlothian, VA	3.0	2.0	1471	$1,950	$1.33	45d	1	1.10mi
14201 Martinet Xing Midlothian, VA	3.0	2.5	2160	$2,500	$1.16	25d	1	1.37mi
1532 Ewing Park Loop Unit 1 Midlothian, VA	3.0	3.0	1641	$2,900	$1.77	45d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-18
   listed $330,000 Active
2. 2024-11-23
   historical $1,850
3. 2024-11-21
   historical $1,850
4. 2024-11-03
   listed $1,850
5. 2024-11-02
   listed $1,850
6. 2002-09-27
   soldstatus $122,500
7. 1988-04-01
   soldstatus $67,595

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,741 · $228/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,741 · $228/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,586
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,485
• − Property taxes: −$2,741
• − Insurance: −$2,448
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,527
• − Management: −$2,527
• − Depreciation: −$9,600
• Taxable loss: −$6,742
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,618
• After-tax cash flow: $615/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesterfield County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100840
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $72,821
• Composite: 51.56/100
• National rank: #1712
• State rank: #57 of 131 in VA

Livability — Midlothian

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midlothian, VA
• County: Chesterfield County · 406,988 people
• City population: 106,124
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 27,477
• Household income: $142,344
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 366.0

Population outlook (Chesterfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 377,190 people
• By 2030: 395,710 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 427,694 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 452,706 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 505,533 · +34.0%
• By 2100: 521,282 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesterfield

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.8% · R 44.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.4pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: R+2.2 2012: R+7.1 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -284.10%
• Current HPI: 261.63
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.47%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+388.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $330,000 CVRMLS
• 2024-11-23 Rental Removed $1,850 RENTFEEDER
• 2024-11-21 Rental Removed $1,850 RENT.
• 2024-11-03 Listed for Rent $1,850 RENTFEEDER
• 2024-11-02 Listed for Rent $1,850 RENT.
• 2002-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $122,500 Public Records
• 1988-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $67,595 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,741 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.