280 Bright Alcove Ct · Lavon, TX 75166

$311,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,896 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 197 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 5,400 sqft lot $165/sqft · 10% below area Est $341k · 8% under $155/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 21162408 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - Ready Now! ~ It's crystal clear that the Quartz appeals to everyone. This popular single-story plan shines because of the great room. The layout allows you to simultaneously keep your eyes on architects constructing forts and others prepping for the big debate tournament. While they work, you can play in your extravagant open kitchen. There's plenty of counterspace for rolling out pizza dough. Set the toppings on the island and let the chefs get to work. The spacious primary suite can be your personal haven. Set up the adjacent study nook as a drop zone for everyone. The guest suite is nestled next to a full bath with dual sinks perfect for weekend guests!

Key facts

• Counterspace
• Primary suite
• Great room

Tags

• GREAT ROOM
• OPEN KITCHEN
• COUNTERSPACE
• PRIMARY SUITE
• STUDY NOOK
• GUEST SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $312k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $117 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (13.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $270k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.4% in Lavon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#588 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 750 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 43d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 197 days — a 12% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $270,184 (13.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 197 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.60%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $340,890
• List price: $311,990
• Delta: -7.01%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
291 Bright Alcove Ct	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,889 (-0%)	2mo	$346,990	$184	91
764 Grand Dale Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,877 (-1%)	1mo	$324,990	$173	84
292 Bright Alcove Ct	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,768 (-7%)	1mo	$337,990	$191	81
1169 Little Hills Way	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,800 (-5%)	1mo	$326,990	$182	76
724 Grand Dale Dr	0.41mi	4/2.0	2,029 (+7%)	0mo	$336,990	$166	69
1220 Little Bridge Dr	0.42mi	4/2.5	2,068 (+9%)	0mo	$323,490	$156	63
1021 Lovely Day Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,691 (-11%)	2mo	$336,960	$199	61
1195 Little Hills Way	0.34mi	4/3.0	2,131 (+12%)	0mo	$344,990	$162	60
746 Grand Dale Dr	0.36mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,105 (+11%)	0mo	$374,990	$178	58
418 Silent Pond Park	0.46mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,699 (-10%)	2mo	$284,990	$168	53
9920 County Road 540	0.60mi	4/2.0	2,123 (+12%)	1mo	$459,000	$216	51
436 Silent Pond Park	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,649 (-13%)	2mo	$299,990	$182	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-43,168
• Equity at exit: $46,519

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-28,199
• Equity at exit: $26,975

Cash invested: $87,357 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 125 active · 33 under contract
• Months of supply: 11.2 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $329,990 ($176/sqft)
• Median days on market: 71 d
• This list price: 31% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +2.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75166

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Active inventory: 750
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,702 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,636
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,160/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$155
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $117

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,554

Max offer price $311,990

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $293	-5% $205	+0% $117	+5% $28	+10% $-60
Rent	-10% $-97	-5% $10	+0% $117	+5% $223	+10% $330
Rate	-1.0pp $274	-0.5pp $196	base $117	+0.5pp $36	+1.0pp $-46

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,998
• Closing costs: $9,360
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
257 Hope Orchards Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2164	$2,500	$1.16	42d	1	0.06mi
209 Little Bridge Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1913	$2,400	$1.25	48d	1	0.23mi
312 Silent Pond Park Unit 312 Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	2016	$2,900	$1.44	93d	1	0.32mi
759 Gentle Bird Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2400	$2,500	$1.04	23d	1	0.42mi
1060 Happy Holly Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	1353	$1,999	$1.48	37d	1	0.44mi
621 Cherish Day Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1413	$2,045	$1.45	12d	1	0.88mi
402 Coyote Creek Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	2114	$2,295	$1.09	1d	1	0.95mi
344 Cyprus Grove Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2353	$2,600	$1.10	42d	1	0.95mi
848 Good Cheer Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$2,095	$1.31	12d	1	1.00mi
906 Ramble Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1454	$2,250	$1.55	7d	1	1.02mi
906 Ramble Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,675	$1.83	52d	1	1.02mi
544 Oak Creek Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,150	$1.19	42d	1	1.03mi
849 Good Cheer Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,000	$1.37	3d	1	1.03mi
918 Ramble Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$1,900	$1.18	93d	1	1.04mi
860 Moonwake Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2011	$2,800	$1.39	93d	1	1.05mi
613 Daybreak Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	1905	$2,300	$1.21	93d	1	1.07mi
455 Elevon Pkwy Lavon, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1011	$2,063	$2.04	0d	72	1.08mi
566 Silver Springs Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2447	$2,850	$1.16	0d	1	1.10mi
179 Cyprus Grove Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1807	$2,495	$1.38	19d	1	1.12mi
649 Lightheart Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,200	$1.51	12d	1	1.14mi
600 Blooming Glade Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,900	$1.35	42d	1	1.15mi
358 Rockstream Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2201	$2,395	$1.09	73d	1	1.18mi
269 Sunshine Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2072	$2,700	$1.30	93d	1	1.21mi
383 Silver Springs Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2466	$2,500	$1.01	93d	1	1.22mi
117 Community Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.5	2356	$2,600	$1.10	73d	1	1.23mi
239 Tallgrass Dr Lavon, TX	5.0	3.0	2394	$3,500	$1.46	93d	1	1.23mi
361 Silver Springs Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2466	$2,295	$0.93	93d	1	1.24mi
579 White Water Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1838	$2,000	$1.09	73d	1	1.36mi
242 Maverick Ct Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2250	$2,050	$0.91	19d	1	1.38mi
223 Rosewood Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	2139	$2,281	$1.07	21d	1	1.42mi
204 Rosewood Dr Lavon, TX	5.0	3.0	2419	$3,195	$1.32	0d	1	1.44mi
204 Rosewood Dr Lavon, TX	5.0	3.0	2419	$3,195	$1.32	1d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   pricedays on market $311,990 Active 197 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $316,990 Active 195 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $316,990 Active 194 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $316,990 Active 193 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   pricedays on market $316,990 Active 192 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $326,990 Active 189 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $326,990 Active 187 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $326,990 Active 186 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $326,990 Active 184 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $326,990 Active 182 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $326,990 Active 181 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $326,990 Active 180 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $326,990 Active 179 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $326,990 Active 178 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $326,990 Active 176 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $326,990 Active 175 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $326,990 Active 174 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $326,990 Active 173 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $326,990 Active 172 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $326,990 Active 171 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $326,990 Active 170 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $326,990 Active 169 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $326,990 Active 168 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $326,990 Active 167 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $326,990 Active 165 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $326,990 Active 164 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $326,990 Active 163 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $326,990 Active 162 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $326,990 Active 161 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $326,990 Active 160 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $326,990 Active 159 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $326,990 Active 158 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $326,990 Active 157 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $326,990 Active 156 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $326,990 Active 155 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $326,990 Active 154 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $326,990 Active 152 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $326,990 Active 150 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    pricedays on market $326,990 Active 149 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $336,990 Active 146 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $336,990 Active 145 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $336,990 Active 144 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $336,990 Active 143 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $336,990 Active 141 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $336,990 Active 140 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $336,990 Active 137 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $336,990 Active 136 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $336,990 Active 135 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $336,990 Active 132 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $336,990 Active 131 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,160 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,709 · $476/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,550/yr (+$379/mo · 392.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,422
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,160
• − Insurance: −$1,560
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,594
• − Management: −$2,594
• − HOA: −$1,860
• − Depreciation: −$9,076
• Taxable loss: −$3,898
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$935
• After-tax cash flow: $2,336/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,480–$28,440 screening

This home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms. It has a good curb appeal and is ready for minor updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Modernizes bathrooms and improves aesthetics ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes kitchen and improves functionality ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

High Community H S F TX #941/1,632 Nat'l #9,497/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Lavon

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #588
• US rank: #11230

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,210,074 people
• City population: 6,989
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,989
• Household income: $132,101
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% Black 7% Asian 4% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.22%
• Current HPI: 221.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $336,990 NTREIS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $336,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-23 Listed $339,990 NTREIS
• 2025-12-30 Listed $339,990 Zillow

Property tax history

-12.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,160 · -12.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.