256 Shepley Dr · Glasgow Village, MO 63137

$15,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 854 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1953 6,198 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great ranch home ready for new owner! This roomy, 3 bedroom home has so much to offer. Kitchen cabinets have been updated, spacious living room, and bedrooms. Covered patio with a large, level, fenced yard. Full basement waiting for your finishing touches!

Key facts

• 6,198 sq ft lot
• Built 1953
• Listed 38 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $15k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $15k).
• Recommended offer: $15k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 88.2% vs local median 12.4% in Glasgow Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#756 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Riverview Gardens (suburban): math 2% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #324 of 324 in MO (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Moline Elem. (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,058 of 1,115 statewide, top 96%, 295 students, 99% FRL); Riverview Gardens Sr. High (math 2% / reading 18%, grade F, #501 of 521 statewide, top 97%, 1,331 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 201 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($43k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $104 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $450 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($15k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $14,550 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 9.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 88.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 292.69%
• DSCR: 14.02
• GRM: 0.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $82,838
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
363 Shepley Dr	0.18mi	3/1.0	854 (0%)	3mo	$110,000	$129	89
237 Ben Nevis Rd	0.29mi	3/1.0	873 (+2%)	1mo	$89,000	$102	82
10539 Renfrew Dr	0.36mi	3/1.0	854 (0%)	2mo	$119,900	$140	81
321 Caithness Rd	0.26mi	3/1.0	902 (+6%)	3mo	$47,700	$53	76
10640 Spring Garden Dr	0.49mi	3/1.0	873 (+2%)	1mo	$77,500	$89	72
200 Mcalpine Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	927 (+8%)	0mo	$90,000	$97	60
147 Monteith Cir	0.63mi	3/1.0	909 (+6%)	2mo	$24,900	$27	59
151 Brigadoon Cir	0.55mi	3/1.0	927 (+8%)	2mo	$34,900	$38	58
10300 Ross Cir	0.35mi	3/1.0	980 (+15%)	1mo	$105,000	$107	58
158 Monteith Cir	0.59mi	3/1.0	927 (+8%)	0mo	$94,900	$102	58
10746 Glen Garry Rd	0.61mi	3/1.0	927 (+8%)	1mo	$89,900	$97	57
10519 Renfrew Dr	0.36mi	3/1.5	982 (+15%)	2mo	$95,000	$97	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 17.23×
• Total profit: $68,180
• Equity at exit: $2,237

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 40.78×
• Total profit: $167,083
• Equity at exit: $1,297

Cash invested: $4,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63137

• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 201
• Price-to-rent: 0.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,428 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$79
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$19 /mo · $225/yr
• Insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $1,024

Break-even live

Break-even rent $131

Max offer price $15,000

Occupancy floor 23%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,750
• Closing costs: $450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
251 Midlothian Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1058	$1,499	$1.42	43d	1	0.04mi
204 Tay Rd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.5	854	$1,500	$1.76	17d	1	0.07mi
10432 Balmoral Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	826	$1,600	$1.94	1d	1	0.08mi
323 Shepley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	850	$1,175	$1.38	2d	1	0.08mi
10617 Dunkeld Cir Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	873	$1,299	$1.49	43d	1	0.13mi
10617 Dunkeld Cir Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	873	$1,299	$1.49	7d	1	0.13mi
329 Midlothian Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	854	$1,195	$1.40	3d	1	0.15mi
312 Banff Cir Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	854	$1,175	$1.38	23d	1	0.16mi
305 Lancashire Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	854	$1,100	$1.29	17d	1	0.17mi
10650 Dunkeld Cir Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	854	$1,250	$1.46	7d	1	0.18mi
232 Cameron Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	984	$1,295	$1.32	12d	1	0.19mi
409 Shepley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	854	$1,095	$1.28	4d	1	0.20mi
241 Grampian Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	837	$1,250	$1.49	43d	1	0.20mi
237 Grampian Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	873	$1,499	$1.72	43d	1	0.21mi
157 Perthshire Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	873	$1,850	$2.12	43d	1	0.21mi
325 Caithness Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	854	$1,425	$1.67	12d	1	0.25mi
325 Caithness Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	854	$1,540	$1.80	43d	1	0.25mi
432 Midlothian Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,350	$1.21	10d	1	0.27mi
317 Cameron Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	854	$1,350	$1.58	23d	1	0.27mi
10527 Prestwick Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	854	$1,395	$1.63	7d	1	0.28mi
138 Grampian Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	873	$1,499	$1.72	43d	1	0.28mi
10518 Gretna Cir Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1082	$1,450	$1.34	23d	1	0.28mi
457 Shepley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	854	$1,350	$1.58	23d	1	0.30mi
437 Lancashire Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1082	$1,395	$1.29	43d	1	0.31mi
257 Glen Garry Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	873	$1,025	$1.17	14d	1	0.32mi
225 Ben Nevis Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	873	$1,250	$1.43	3d	1	0.34mi
10519 Renfrew Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	982	$1,399	$1.42	43d	1	0.35mi
117 Glen Garry Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,175	$1.18	3d	1	0.35mi
10524 Durness Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,250	$1.25	43d	1	0.38mi
416 Crawford Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	844	$1,499	$1.78	23d	1	0.39mi
10309 Galloway Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	892	$1,295	$1.45	12d	1	0.41mi
10613 Spring Garden Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	873	$1,169	$1.34	23d	1	0.44mi
10327 Renfrew Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	844	$1,199	$1.42	43d	1	0.46mi
10063 Northgate Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1054	$1,200	$1.14	43d	1	0.50mi
120 McAlpine Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	927	$1,399	$1.51	43d	1	0.51mi
10213 Durness Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	932	$1,225	$1.31	43d	1	0.56mi
743 Shepley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	932	$1,025	$1.10	7d	1	0.56mi
10401 Hobkirk Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,500	$1.43	17d	1	0.57mi
10700 Spring Garden Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	816	$1,499	$1.84	23d	1	0.57mi
10019 Northgate Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	991	$1,150	$1.16	21d	1	0.59mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-02-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-16
   price $15,000
3. 2026-01-11
   listed $20,000 Active
4. 2026-01-10
   historical $20,000
5. 2012-02-21
   soldstatus $33,160
6. 2012-02-06
   soldstatus 256-char remark

   Show marketing remark (256 chars)

   Great ranch home ready for new owner! This roomy, 3 bedroom home has so much to offer. Kitchen cabinets have been updated, spacious living room, and bedrooms. Covered patio with a large, level, fenced yard. Full basement waiting for your finishing touches!

7. 2012-02-03
   soldstatus $13,500
8. 2012-01-20
   listed $12,000 256-char remark

   Show marketing remark (256 chars)

   Great ranch home ready for new owner! This roomy, 3 bedroom home has so much to offer. Kitchen cabinets have been updated, spacious living room, and bedrooms. Covered patio with a large, level, fenced yard. Full basement waiting for your finishing touches!

9. 2003-05-09
   soldstatus $79,900
10. 2001-04-27
    soldstatus $68,900
11. 1983-07-01
    soldstatus
12. 1981-04-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,135
• − Mortgage interest: −$840
• − Property taxes: −$225
• − Insurance: −$75
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,371
• − Management: −$1,371
• − Depreciation: −$436
• Taxable income: $12,817
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,076
• After-tax cash flow: $9,217/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverview Gardens
• NCES district ID: 2926670
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $32,759
• Composite: 4.22/100
• National rank: #10058
• State rank: #324 of 324 in MO

Livability — Glasgow Village

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #756
• US rank: #23451

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Glasgow Village, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 19,684
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 19,684
• Household income: $43,422
• Rent vs Own: 52.2% rent · 47.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1863.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 82% White 13% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.70%
• Current HPI: 130.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.59%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-78.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-17 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $15,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-11 Listed $20,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-10 Coming Soon $20,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-02-21 Sold (Public Records) $33,160 Public Records
• 2012-02-06 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $13,500 Public Records
• 2012-01-20 Listed $12,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $79,900 Public Records
• 2001-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $68,900 Public Records
• 1983-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1981-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-1.8%/yr

Latest (2022): $926 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.