2023 Wildbrook Canyon Ln · Houston, TX 77449

$238,888

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,507 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 66 Days on market

Built 2006 7,309 sqft lot $159/sqft · 12% below area Est $270k · 12% under $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investment opportunity in the sought-after Castle Rock community of Katy! If buyer desires, residence offers the rare advantage of immediate cash flow with a long-term tenant in place for 10+ years who desires to remain, eliminating vacancy risk from day one. Solidly built, the home presents in good structural condition with strong bones throughout. Buyer has the opportunity to modernize finishes, add equity, and command a premium rental rate upon renewal. Situated in a family-friendly, HOA-maintained neighborhood zoned to highly regarded Katy ISD schools, with the British International School nearby, this home benefits from the subdivision's community pool, playground, and tennis courts, amenities that keep quality tenants renewing. Conveniently located near the Grand Parkway (99) and I-10, with easy access to shopping, dining, and major employment corridors. Perfect if you're building your rental portfolio or making your first investment.

Key facts

• Katy isd schools
• Community pool
• Playground

Tags

• CASTLE ROCK COMMUNITY
• HOA-MAINTAINED NEIGHBORHOOD
• KATY ISD SCHOOLS
• BRITISH INTERNATIONAL SCHOOL
• COMMUNITY POOL
• PLAYGROUND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-363 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (26.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (22.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (26.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Franz El (math 36% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 1,000 students, 78% FRL); Morton Ranch J H (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #660 of 1,662 statewide, top 41%, 1,184 students, 75% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 27% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 48% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Katy ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 763 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,699 (26.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.52%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,215
• List price: $238,888
• Delta: -11.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2107 Castle Gardens Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,525 (+1%)	6mo	$264,900	$174	88
20915 Windsor Hollow Ct	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,588 (+5%)	3mo	$269,990	$170	83
20503 Blue Beech Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,470 (-2%)	1mo	$249,900	$170	67
1518 Bugle Run Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,625 (+8%)	8mo	$269,000	$166	61
1823 Oakwell Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,588 (+5%)	13mo	$190,000	$120	58
20923 Dover Mist Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+12%)	10mo	$305,000	$182	56
2118 Oakwell Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,426 (-5%)	15mo	$245,000	$172	52
1506 Windys Way	0.53mi	3/2.5	1,611 (+7%)	16mo	$235,000	$146	48
20235 Raingate Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,665 (+10%)	8mo	$258,000	$155	43
20250 Smithfield Crossing Ln	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,694 (+12%)	9mo	$249,500	$147	42
20203 Westfork Ct	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,305 (-13%)	16mo	$239,999	$184	36
2035 Crosscoach Ln	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,694 (+12%)	15mo	$250,000	$148	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.27% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-49,313
• Equity at exit: $54,575

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-76,613
• Equity at exit: $54,714

Cash invested: $66,889 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77449

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 763
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,847 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$432 /mo · $5,182/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $-363

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,306

Max offer price $174,699

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-228	-5% $-296	+0% $-363	+5% $-431	+10% $-499
Rent	-10% $-509	-5% $-436	+0% $-363	+5% $-290	+10% $-217
Rate	-1.0pp $-243	-0.5pp $-303	base $-363	+0.5pp $-425	+1.0pp $-488

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,722
• Closing costs: $7,167
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1500 N Mason Rd Unit SNTA2 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,690	$1.55	13d	1	0.54mi
1500 N Mason Rd Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,690	$1.55	0d	1	0.54mi
21455 Merchants Way Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1405	$2,137	$1.52	45d	1	0.56mi
2503 Silver Trumpet Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1388	$1,791	$1.29	13d	1	0.58mi
1799 Earl of Dunmore St Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1068	$1,670	$1.56	13d	1	0.60mi
1562 N Westgreen Blvd Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,850	$1.11	45d	1	0.60mi
2203 Wheathall Camp Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,745	$1.25	45d	1	0.66mi
1550 Westborough Dr Unit 3112 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,923	$1.15	0d	1	0.86mi
1550 Westborough Dr Unit 1587 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,408	$1.31	12d	1	0.86mi
1550 Westborough Dr Unit 1607 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,409	$1.31	45d	1	0.86mi
1550 Westborough Dr Unit DW3 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,539	$1.43	0d	1	0.86mi
1550 Westborough Dr Unit DW4 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1235	$1,639	$1.33	7d	1	0.86mi
1550 Westborough Dr Unit 2112 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,368	$1.27	0d	1	0.86mi
1550 Westborough Dr Unit 3174 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,963	$1.18	12d	1	0.86mi
1550 Westborough Dr Unit DW5 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,850	$1.11	4d	1	0.86mi
1550 Westborough Dr Unit 2174 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,409	$1.31	0d	1	0.86mi
1550 Westborough Dr Unit 424 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,384	$1.28	7d	1	0.86mi
1550 Westborough Dr Unit 1583 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,974	$1.18	45d	1	0.86mi
1550 Westborough Dr Unit 2047 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,419	$1.32	12d	1	0.88mi
2000 Westborough Dr Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$1,857	$1.81	0d	17	0.90mi
21550 Provincial Blvd Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1024	$2,099	$2.05	4d	39	0.93mi
222 Mason Creek Dr Unit 3047 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1235	$1,978	$1.60	12d	1	0.94mi
510 Westgreen Blvd Unit 424 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1108	$1,575	$1.42	7d	1	0.96mi
510 Westgreen Blvd Unit 2174 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,728	$1.38	17d	1	0.96mi
510 Westgreen Blvd Unit 547 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,753	$1.40	45d	1	0.96mi
510 Westgreen Blvd Unit 2112 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1108	$1,559	$1.41	0d	1	0.96mi
510 Westgreen Blvd Unit 533 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,753	$1.40	14d	1	0.96mi
510 Westgreen Blvd Unit 567 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1108	$1,599	$1.44	12d	1	0.96mi
222 Mason Creek Dr Unit 255 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1235	$1,978	$1.60	45d	1	0.99mi
222 Mason Creek Dr Unit 3174 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1235	$1,978	$1.60	13d	1	0.99mi
222 Mason Creek Dr Katy, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	854	$1,910	$2.24	0d	33	1.00mi
20070 N Navaho Trl Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,695	$1.24	23d	1	1.04mi
1550 Westborough Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,850	$1.11	45d	1	1.06mi
20104 Park Row Blvd Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1234	$1,309	$1.06	45d	1	1.11mi
21622 Stonecross Terrace Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1778	$2,050	$1.15	26d	1	1.12mi
21542 Provincial Blvd Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,912	$1.46	45d	1	1.15mi
22631 Colonial Pkwy Unit 22688 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1074	$1,339	$1.25	14d	1	1.19mi
22631 Colonial Pkwy Unit 22668 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1151	$1,740	$1.51	45d	1	1.19mi
22631 Colonial Pkwy Unit 22668 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1195	$1,663	$1.39	12d	1	1.19mi
22631 Colonial Pkwy Unit 2112 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1195	$1,623	$1.36	0d	1	1.19mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $238,888 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $238,888 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $238,888 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $238,888 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $238,888 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $238,888 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $238,888 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $238,888 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $238,888 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $238,888 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $238,888 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $238,888 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $238,888 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $238,888 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-04-16
    listed $239,888 Active 965-char remark

    Show marketing remark (965 chars)

    Investment opportunity in the sought-after Castle Rock community of Katy! If buyer desires, residence offers the rare advantage of immediate cash flow with a long-term tenant in place for 10+ years who desires to remain, eliminating vacancy risk from day one. Solidly built, the home presents in good structural condition with strong bones throughout. Buyer has the opportunity to modernize finishes, add equity, and command a premium rental rate upon renewal. Situated in a family-friendly, HOA-maintained neighborhood zoned to highly regarded Katy ISD schools, with the British International School nearby, this home benefits from the subdivision's community pool, playground, and tennis courts, amenities that keep quality tenants renewing. Conveniently located near the Grand Parkway (99) and I-10, with easy access to shopping, dining, and major employment corridors. Perfect if you're building your rental portfolio or making your first investment.

16. 2019-06-06
    soldstatus
17. 2012-08-09
    soldstatus 186-char remark

    Show marketing remark (186 chars)

    Phenomenal opportunity! New carpet, fresh paint, new flooring. Shows beautifully! Spacious living room with tile floors. Large, open kitchen. This is a great deal and will NOT last long!

18. 2012-05-23
    historical 186-char remark

    Show marketing remark (186 chars)

    Phenomenal opportunity! New carpet, fresh paint, new flooring. Shows beautifully! Spacious living room with tile floors. Large, open kitchen. This is a great deal and will NOT last long!

19. 2012-01-25
    listed $90,900 186-char remark

    Show marketing remark (186 chars)

    Phenomenal opportunity! New carpet, fresh paint, new flooring. Shows beautifully! Spacious living room with tile floors. Large, open kitchen. This is a great deal and will NOT last long!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,182 · $432/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,182 · $432/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,158
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,381
• − Property taxes: −$5,182
• − Insurance: −$1,194
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,773
• − Management: −$1,773
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$6,949
• Taxable loss: −$8,550
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,052
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,308/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 130,028
• Household income: $87,808
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 3088.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% Two or more races 22% Black 20% White 19% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Current HPI: 254.6622
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.86%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+163.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $239,888 HARMLS
• 2019-06-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-08-09 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2012-05-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2012-01-25 Listed $90,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,182 · -4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.