138-11 Beach Channel Dr Unit C-2 · New York, NY 11694

$279,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · Condo · 157 Days on market

Built 1950 ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Reduced 20,000 !! Location Location , Location Belle Harbor Across and Facing the Bay and Manhattan Skyline. Move IN Ready Bright & Airy. Large living Room and Nice Size Bedroom. Big Eat in Kitchen. lots of closets, Hardwood Floors throughout & Garage Parking. Why Rent When You Can OWN a Piece of Paradise! Just Blocks from Easy Access to beach & Ferry to City. Corner Unit Across from the Open Bay & City. Close to ALL. HURRY!!

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1950
• Listed 157 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Queens County
• HOA & community: Association with monthly fee; Association fee includes gas

Exterior

• Parking: Garage; 1 garage space; No carport
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Water connected
• Home design: Stock cooperative; 3 stories total; Entry level on 3
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Brick construction; Waterfront property

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 total rooms
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Wall/window air conditioning unit(s)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; Open floorplan
• Laundry & utility: Common area laundry; Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $369 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $280k).
• Recommended offer: $246k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 5,302 units permitted in Queens County in 2024 (4,918 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Queens County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.67%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-21,754
• Equity at exit: $41,734

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $11,687
• Equity at exit: $24,201

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11694

• Home prices YoY: -33.2%
• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$350 /mo · $4,198/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$630
• Net cashflow: $369

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,533

Max offer price $279,900

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $563	-5% $466	+0% $369	+5% $272	+10% $176
Rent	-10% $132	-5% $251	+0% $369	+5% $488	+10% $606
Rate	-1.0pp $510	-0.5pp $440	base $369	+0.5pp $297	+1.0pp $223

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5-12 Beach 130th St Unit 2B Far Rockaway, NY	2.0	1.0	650	$3,000	$4.62	25d	1	0.39mi
108-09 Rockaway Beach Dr Unit A Rockaway Park, NY	1.0	1.0	800	$3,000	$3.75	17d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,900 Active 157 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,900 Active 156 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,900 Active 154 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   remarks 437-char remark
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,900 Active 152 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $279,900 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,900 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $279,900 Active 143 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $279,900 Active 142 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,900 Active 140 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,900 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-05-15
    price $279,900
13. 2026-02-20
    status Active
14. 2026-01-04
    listed $299,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$4,198
• − Insurance: −$2,197
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,880
• − Management: −$2,880
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable income: $23
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6
• After-tax cash flow: $4,425/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• City population: 7,731,280
• Population (ZIP): 21,430

Population outlook (Queens County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,546,320 people
• By 2030: 2,643,059 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 2,815,563 · +10.6%
• By 2050: 2,944,423 · +15.6%
• By 2075: 3,123,338 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 3,098,688 · +21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Black 8% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 8% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Arabic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Queens

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.6) · D 62.3% · R 37.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 50.8pp · 2024: 24.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.6 2020: D+45.2 2016: D+53.4 2012: D+58.5 2008: D+50.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.01%
• Current HPI: 243.2048
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $279,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-04 Listed $299,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid