20269 Fieldtree Dr · Humble, TX 77338

$265,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,134 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 115 Days on market

Built 1967 8,576 sqft lot $124/sqft · at area comps Est $260k · at est. $49/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity in Humble. This two story home is ready for updating and offers a solid layout with plenty of potential for a buyer looking to customize or add value. Convenient location near shopping, dining, and major commuter routes. Property is being sold as is.

Key facts

• Custom island
• Chef kitchen
• Granite countertops

Tags

• BRIGHT OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• CHEF KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CUSTOM ISLAND
• PRIVATE FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-124 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (8.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (10.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (10.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.8% in Humble — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#961 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, crime F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 311 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $238,584 (10.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.00%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $260,147
• List price: $265,000
• Delta: 1.87%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20310 Landshire Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,049 (-4%)	3mo	$282,000	$138	83
20419 Landshire Dr	0.16mi	4/2.5	2,050 (-4%)	15mo	$205,000	$100	72
20503 Marblehead Ct	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,988 (-7%)	5mo	$175,000	$88	72
9827 Haverhill Dr	0.30mi	4/2.5	2,050 (-4%)	9mo	$200,000	$98	70
20410 Prince Edward Ct	0.17mi	4/2.5	2,411 (+13%)	5mo	$275,000	$114	65
20626 Fieldtree Dr	0.50mi	4/2.5	2,276 (+7%)	5mo	$280,000	$123	59
9607 Upwood Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,894 (-11%)	13mo	$295,000	$156	59
9115 Aspen Trace Ln	0.68mi	4/2.5	2,004 (-6%)	3mo	$254,900	$127	54
20603 Fieldtree Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,902 (-11%)	9mo	$239,900	$126	54
9039 Farm Ridge Ln	0.71mi	4/2.5	2,260 (+6%)	10mo	$239,999	$106	47
20402 Lookout Bend Dr	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,360 (+11%)	9mo	$265,000	$112	41
20454 Lookout Bend Dr	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,248 (+5%)	18mo	$279,800	$124	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.77% appreciation · 2.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-26,971
• Equity at exit: $66,843

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-16,629
• Equity at exit: $72,671

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77338

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 311
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,386 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$460 /mo · $5,515/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$49
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$501
• Net cashflow: $-124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,543

Max offer price $243,116

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $26	-5% $-49	+0% $-124	+5% $-199	+10% $-274
Rent	-10% $-312	-5% $-218	+0% $-124	+5% $-30	+10% $65
Rate	-1.0pp $10	-0.5pp $-56	base $-124	+0.5pp $-193	+1.0pp $-262

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20257 Fieldtree Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2400	$2,500	$1.04	25d	1	0.01mi
20538 Faith Millstream Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,931	$1.19	23d	1	0.88mi
20527 Faith Millstream Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2178	$2,100	$0.96	45d	1	0.88mi
8902 Snapping Turtle Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,729	$1.22	8d	1	0.91mi
8818 Cornina Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.5	2868	$2,295	$0.80	0d	1	1.01mi
20418 Red Canyon Creek Ln Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	1731	$2,000	$1.16	23d	1	1.16mi
20102 Bridgedale Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1635	$1,999	$1.22	45d	1	1.17mi
8419 Opalwood Ln Unit Main Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	2084	$2,482	$1.19	20d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $49 · $588/yr

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $265,000 Active 115 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 112 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 111 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 110 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 109 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 107 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 106 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Active 103 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $265,000 Active 102 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $265,000 Active 101 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $265,000 Active 98 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $265,000 Active 97 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $265,000 Active 96 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,000 Active 95 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 94 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    price $265,000 262-char remark

    Show marketing remark (262 chars)

    Opportunity in Humble. This two story home is ready for updating and offers a solid layout with plenty of potential for a buyer looking to customize or add value. Convenient location near shopping, dining, and major commuter routes. Property is being sold as is.

17. 2026-03-06
    price $230,000 262-char remark

    Show marketing remark (262 chars)

    Opportunity in Humble. This two story home is ready for updating and offers a solid layout with plenty of potential for a buyer looking to customize or add value. Convenient location near shopping, dining, and major commuter routes. Property is being sold as is.

18. 2026-02-27
    status Active 262-char remark

    Show marketing remark (262 chars)

    Opportunity in Humble. This two story home is ready for updating and offers a solid layout with plenty of potential for a buyer looking to customize or add value. Convenient location near shopping, dining, and major commuter routes. Property is being sold as is.

19. 2026-01-13
    historical 262-char remark

    Show marketing remark (262 chars)

    Opportunity in Humble. This two story home is ready for updating and offers a solid layout with plenty of potential for a buyer looking to customize or add value. Convenient location near shopping, dining, and major commuter routes. Property is being sold as is.

20. 2026-01-13
    listed $260,000 Active 262-char remark

    Show marketing remark (262 chars)

    Opportunity in Humble. This two story home is ready for updating and offers a solid layout with plenty of potential for a buyer looking to customize or add value. Convenient location near shopping, dining, and major commuter routes. Property is being sold as is.

21. 2024-09-23
    historical
22. 2024-08-09
    price $275,000
23. 2024-08-05
    price $290,000
24. 2024-07-30
    listed $300,000 Active
25. 2020-05-20
    soldstatus
26. 2020-05-01
    soldstatus Sold
27. 2020-04-01
    status Pending
28. 2020-03-28
    status Option Pending
29. 2019-12-09
    listed $199,900 Active
30. 2019-12-07
    historical
31. 2019-10-30
    price $204,900
32. 2019-10-08
    price $209,900
33. 2019-09-04
    price $214,000
34. 2019-08-02
    price $219,000
35. 2019-08-02
    status Active
36. 2019-06-21
    historical
37. 2019-06-14
    listed $230,000 Active
38. 1999-08-31
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,515 · $460/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,515 · $460/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,630
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$5,515
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,290
• − Management: −$2,290
• − HOA: −$588
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$5,932
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,424
• After-tax cash flow: $-63/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Humble

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #961
• US rank: #17060

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Humble, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 109,766
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,031
• Household income: $64,755
• Rent vs Own: 52.5% rent · 47.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2620.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% Black 34% Two or more races 18% White 16% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Armenian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 35% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.77%
• Current HPI: 245.7087
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.17%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+15.2% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $260,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-09-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-08-09 Price Changed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-05 Price Changed $290,000 HARMLS
• 2024-07-30 Listed $300,000 HARMLS
• 2020-05-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-05-01 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-04-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-03-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-12-09 Listed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2019-12-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-10-30 Price Changed $204,900 HARMLS
• 2019-10-08 Price Changed $209,900 HARMLS
• 2019-09-04 Price Changed $214,000 HARMLS
• 2019-08-02 Price Changed $219,000 HARMLS
• 2019-08-02 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2019-06-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-06-14 Listed $230,000 HARMLS
• 1999-08-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,515 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.