3021 Bristlegrass St · Pattison, TX 77423

$304,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,961 sqft · SingleFamily · 208 Days on market

Built 2025 6,775 sqft lot $156/sqft · at area comps Est $302k · at est. $58/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Benbrook plan is a well-designed 1-story home with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an open-concept living, kitchen, and dining area. This floorplan features a covered patio, an oversized pantry, a kitchen island with bar seating, a large family room, a dedicated laundry room, and a 2-car garage. The primary suite includes a walk-in closet with ample space connected to a private bathroom. The Benbrook also features a flex space ideal for an office, playroom, or nursery.

Key facts

• Large kitchen island
• Quartz countertops
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• 42 INCH WHITE CABINETRY
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $305k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $36 ($437/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (20.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.4% in Pattison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#876 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Royal El (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 762 students, 78% FRL); Royal J H (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 593 students, 73% FRL); Royal H S (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 842 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1016 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 208 days — a 12% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $241,846 (20.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 208 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.51%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $302,180
• List price: $304,990
• Delta: 0.93%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3016 Bristlegrass St	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,961 (0%)	3mo	$324,990	$166	90
3037 Bristlegrass St	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,961 (0%)	4mo	$299,990	$153	90
3020 Bristlegrass St	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,898 (-3%)	2mo	$289,990	$153	86
3004 Mistflower Trl	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,898 (-3%)	2mo	$289,990	$153	85
3013 Bristlegrass St	0.02mi	4/3.0	2,050 (+4%)	4mo	$334,990	$163	84
3036 Mistflower Trl	0.12mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,920 (-2%)	1mo	$314,990	$164	83
3017 Arrowwood Dr	0.16mi	4/3.0	2,084 (+6%)	0mo	$339,883	$163	78
3045 Buckthorn Dr	0.18mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,026 (+3%)	3mo	$328,484	$162	77
3036 Plateau Dr	0.23mi	4/2.5	2,049 (+4%)	5mo	$299,728	$146	76
3009 El Dorado Dr	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,084 (+6%)	2mo	$337,398	$162	75
3061 Arrowwood Dr	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,084 (+6%)	5mo	$330,335	$159	72
3033 Buckthorn Dr	0.16mi	4/3.0	2,125 (+8%)	3mo	$332,006	$156	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-54,299
• Equity at exit: $45,475

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-72,124
• Equity at exit: $26,370

Cash invested: $85,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1016
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,418 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,077/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $36

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,372

Max offer price $304,990

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $209	-5% $123	+0% $36	+5% $-50	+10% $-136
Rent	-10% $-155	-5% $-59	+0% $36	+5% $132	+10% $227
Rate	-1.0pp $190	-0.5pp $114	base $36	+0.5pp $-43	+1.0pp $-123

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,248
• Closing costs: $9,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3005 Wood Lily Dr Brookshire, TX	4.0	3.0	1751	$1,975	$1.13	46d	1	0.33mi
3045 Wood Lily Dr Brookshire, TX	4.0	2.0	1534	$1,850	$1.21	46d	1	0.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $58 · $696/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $304,990 Active 208 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $304,990 Active 207 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $304,990 Active 204 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $304,990 Active 203 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $304,990 Active 202 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $304,990 Active 201 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $304,990 Active 199 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $304,990 Active 195 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $304,990 Active 194 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $304,990 Active 193 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $304,990 Active 190 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $304,990 Active 189 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $304,990 Active 188 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $304,990 Active 187 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $304,990 Active 186 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    price $309,990 474-char remark

    Show marketing remark (474 chars)

    The Benbrook plan is a well-designed 1-story home with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an open-concept living, kitchen, and dining area. This floorplan features a covered patio, an oversized pantry, a kitchen island with bar seating, a large family room, a dedicated laundry room, and a 2-car garage. The primary suite includes a walk-in closet with ample space connected to a private bathroom. The Benbrook also features a flex space ideal for an office, playroom, or nursery.

17. 2026-05-18
    price $309,990 742-char remark

    Show marketing remark (742 chars)

    Love where you live in Bluestem in Brookshire, TX! The Benbrook floor plan is a charming 1-story home with 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. This home has it all, including a large kitchen island overlooking the family and dining rooms and vinyl plank flooring throughout the entire home. The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with 42-inch white cabinetry, quartz countertops, stainless-steel appliances, and a box window at the dining area! Retreat to the secluded Owner's Suite featuring double sinks with granite countertops, a separate tub and shower, and a spacious walk-in closet! Enjoy the great outdoors with a sprinkler system and a covered patio! Don't miss your opportunity to call Bluestem home, schedule a visit today!

18. 2026-03-11
    price $319,990 474-char remark

    Show marketing remark (474 chars)

    The Benbrook plan is a well-designed 1-story home with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an open-concept living, kitchen, and dining area. This floorplan features a covered patio, an oversized pantry, a kitchen island with bar seating, a large family room, a dedicated laundry room, and a 2-car garage. The primary suite includes a walk-in closet with ample space connected to a private bathroom. The Benbrook also features a flex space ideal for an office, playroom, or nursery.

19. 2026-03-09
    price $319,990 742-char remark

    Show marketing remark (742 chars)

    Love where you live in Bluestem in Brookshire, TX! The Benbrook floor plan is a charming 1-story home with 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. This home has it all, including a large kitchen island overlooking the family and dining rooms and vinyl plank flooring throughout the entire home. The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with 42-inch white cabinetry, quartz countertops, stainless-steel appliances, and a box window at the dining area! Retreat to the secluded Owner's Suite featuring double sinks with granite countertops, a separate tub and shower, and a spacious walk-in closet! Enjoy the great outdoors with a sprinkler system and a covered patio! Don't miss your opportunity to call Bluestem home, schedule a visit today!

20. 2025-12-24
    price $324,990 474-char remark

    Show marketing remark (474 chars)

    The Benbrook plan is a well-designed 1-story home with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an open-concept living, kitchen, and dining area. This floorplan features a covered patio, an oversized pantry, a kitchen island with bar seating, a large family room, a dedicated laundry room, and a 2-car garage. The primary suite includes a walk-in closet with ample space connected to a private bathroom. The Benbrook also features a flex space ideal for an office, playroom, or nursery.

21. 2025-12-23
    price $324,990 742-char remark

    Show marketing remark (742 chars)

    Love where you live in Bluestem in Brookshire, TX! The Benbrook floor plan is a charming 1-story home with 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. This home has it all, including a large kitchen island overlooking the family and dining rooms and vinyl plank flooring throughout the entire home. The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with 42-inch white cabinetry, quartz countertops, stainless-steel appliances, and a box window at the dining area! Retreat to the secluded Owner's Suite featuring double sinks with granite countertops, a separate tub and shower, and a spacious walk-in closet! Enjoy the great outdoors with a sprinkler system and a covered patio! Don't miss your opportunity to call Bluestem home, schedule a visit today!

22. 2025-11-26
    listed $331,517 Active 742-char remark

    Show marketing remark (742 chars)

    Love where you live in Bluestem in Brookshire, TX! The Benbrook floor plan is a charming 1-story home with 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. This home has it all, including a large kitchen island overlooking the family and dining rooms and vinyl plank flooring throughout the entire home. The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with 42-inch white cabinetry, quartz countertops, stainless-steel appliances, and a box window at the dining area! Retreat to the secluded Owner's Suite featuring double sinks with granite countertops, a separate tub and shower, and a spacious walk-in closet! Enjoy the great outdoors with a sprinkler system and a covered patio! Don't miss your opportunity to call Bluestem home, schedule a visit today!

23. 2025-10-29
    listed $331,517 Active 474-char remark

    Show marketing remark (474 chars)

    The Benbrook plan is a well-designed 1-story home with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an open-concept living, kitchen, and dining area. This floorplan features a covered patio, an oversized pantry, a kitchen island with bar seating, a large family room, a dedicated laundry room, and a 2-car garage. The primary suite includes a walk-in closet with ample space connected to a private bathroom. The Benbrook also features a flex space ideal for an office, playroom, or nursery.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,077 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,581 · $465/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,505/yr (+$375/mo · 418.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,022
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,084
• − Property taxes: −$1,077
• − Insurance: −$1,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,322
• − Management: −$2,322
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$8,872
• Taxable loss: −$4,876
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,170
• After-tax cash flow: $1,607/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pattison

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #15789

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Waller County · 18,767 people
• City population: 18,767
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 20.0

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $309,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $309,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $319,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $319,990 HARMLS
• 2025-12-24 Price Changed $324,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-23 Price Changed $324,990 HARMLS
• 2025-11-26 Listed $331,517 HARMLS
• 2025-10-29 Listed $331,517 Zillow

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,077 · +8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.