20969 219th Ave · Nevis, MN 56467

$163,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,735 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1930 10 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom home features everything on one level and is ready for updates. It offers generous living space and includes an oversized detached garage. Situated on 10 wooded acres in a fantastic location between Nevis and Dorset, and directly across the road from Boulder Lake, this private property provides plenty of room to explore and enjoy.

Key facts

• 10 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1930

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached 2-car garage (27x39); Garage approximately 1,053 sq. ft.
• Utilities: Sand point water; Private sewer with tank and drainage field; Heating fuel: pellet and propane
• Home design: Residential property; One story; All living space on one level
• Construction: Frame construction; Block foundation; Roof over 8 years old or other
• Exterior features: Deck; Wood exterior; Storage shed; Medium tree coverage

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath (main floor)
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; No central air
• Interior features: All living facilities on one level; Crawl space basement; Free-standing fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $164k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $21 ($253/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (20.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 1.7% in Nevis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#377 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, employment D+.
• Park Rapids Public School District (rural): math 37% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #206 of 301 in MN (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Park Rapids Area Century Elementary (math 71% / reading 56%, grade B, #162 of 857 statewide, top 19%, 618 students, 62% FRL); Park Rapids Area Century Middle (math 22% / reading 43%, grade F, #186 of 258 statewide, top 72%, 497 students, 59% FRL); Park Rapids Senior High (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #246 of 471 statewide, top 59%, 497 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 40% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Hubbard County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hubbard County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $164k implies a 256% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,597 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.55%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $90,552
• Equity at exit: $147,654

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.79×
• Total profit: $265,494
• Equity at exit: $318,422

Cash invested: $45,892 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56467

• Home prices YoY: 10.1%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,306 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$860
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $994/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,279

Max offer price $163,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $114	-5% $67	+0% $21	+5% $-25	+10% $-72
Rent	-10% $-82	-5% $-31	+0% $21	+5% $73	+10% $124
Rate	-1.0pp $104	-0.5pp $63	base $21	+0.5pp $-21	+1.0pp $-65

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,975
• Closing costs: $4,917
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-28
   listed $163,900 Active
3. 2016-12-30
   soldstatus $46,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $994 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,415 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$421/yr (+$35/mo · 42.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,672
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,181
• − Property taxes: −$994
• − Insurance: −$820
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,254
• − Management: −$1,254
• − Depreciation: −$4,768
• Taxable loss: −$2,598
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$624
• After-tax cash flow: $877/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Park Rapids Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2728080
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $45,641
• Composite: 36.11/100
• National rank: #4751
• State rank: #206 of 301 in MN

Livability — Nevis

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #377
• US rank: #8830

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,750

Population outlook (Hubbard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,512 people
• By 2030: 20,275 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 19,429 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 18,093 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 14,903 · -27.3%
• By 2100: 10,994 · -46.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Scottish 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Arabic 1% Spanish 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Hubbard

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.5) · D 33.4% · R 64.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.0pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -31.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.5 2020: R+28.8 2016: R+33.6 2012: R+16.9 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 26.93%
• Current HPI: 293.3438
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+256.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Listed $163,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $994 · -25.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.