12502 123rd Street Ct E #35 · South Hill, WA 98374

$149,250

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,240 sqft · Manufactured public records · 192 Days on market

Built 1979 $120/sqft · 8% above area Est $150k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable fees are hard to find in 55+ communities. Country Dale is a 55+ communitys that is tucked back in a private country setting Enjoy the peaceful atmosphere where you can truly relax. This home is perfectly positioned on the lot, so you have street presence & a backyard w/ room for outdoor entertaining/projects or place for Fido to play. Mature landscaping borders the home w/ year-round greenery. Warm Inviting and well designed & comfortable interior, Casual & formal spaces for everyday living. Light & open living room has plenty of natural lighting. No doom & gloom here. Large, open kitchen with tons of storge and prep space and a/breakfast bar for the

Key facts

• Community club house
• Easy commute
• Mature landscaping

Tags

• MATURE LANDSCAPING
• COMMUNITY CLUB HOUSE
• POOL & OUTDOOR SEATING AREAS
• EASY COMMUTE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $636 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 3.0% in South Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#84 in WA, #1,620 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, cost of living F.
• Puyallup School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #52 of 291 in WA (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 440 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,209 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (1,269 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pierce County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 192 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $149k implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $131,340 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 192 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.27%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $150,000
• List price: $149,250
• Delta: -0.50%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4116 20th Pl SE	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,238 (-0%)	0mo	$406,000	$328	67
12420 123rd St E #56	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,388 (+12%)	11mo	$185,000	$133	64
12719 121st Avenue Ct E #14	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,188 (-4%)	12mo	$160,000	$135	62
11429 124th Street Ct E #121	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,244 (+0%)	8mo	$115,000	$92	62
11415 127th St E #186	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,339 (+8%)	3mo	$80,000	$60	53
11615 121st Avenue Ct E	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,188 (-4%)	21mo	$451,000	$380	49
12516 115th Avenue Ct E #194	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (-13%)	2mo	$150,000	$139	44
11328 126th St E #228	0.69mi	2/1.0	1,120 (-10%)	8mo	$40,000	$36	41
12624 121st Avenue Ct E #22	0.31mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,080 (-13%)	18mo	$142,000	$131	39
12416 114th Ave E #105	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-15%)	6mo	$20,000	$19	38
11401 125th Street Ct E #218	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (+13%)	8mo	$139,950	$100	35
13315 126th Ave E	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-15%)	21mo	$395,000	$374	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $13,689
• Equity at exit: $22,254

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $53,498
• Equity at exit: $12,904

Cash invested: $41,790 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98374

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 440
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,111 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$783
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$187 /mo · $2,239/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $636

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,306

Max offer price $149,250

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,312
• Closing costs: $4,478
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12123 125th Avenue Ct E Puyallup, WA	2.0	2.0	1110	$2,100	$1.89	43d	1	0.15mi
12317 121st Avenue Ct E Puyallup, WA	2.0	2.0	1034	$2,400	$2.32	17d	1	0.17mi
12317 121st Avenue Ct E Puyallup, WA	2.0	2.0	1034	$2,400	$2.32	2d	1	0.17mi
12815 123rd St Ct E Puyallup, WA	1.0	1.0	720	$1,599	$2.22	17d	2	0.24mi
12113 122nd St E Puyallup, WA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,350	$1.93	3d	1	0.24mi
12821 123rd Street Ct E Unit 21-8 Puyallup, WA	1.0	1.0	720	$1,525	$2.12	43d	1	0.26mi
12311 112th Avenue Ct E Apt 3 Puyallup, WA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,800	$2.57	23d	1	0.74mi
11020 122nd St E Puyallup, WA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,650	$1.94	43d	1	0.87mi
12006 108th Avenue Ct E Puyallup, WA	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,000	$2.00	2d	1	1.05mi
502 43rd Ave SE Puyallup, WA	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,810	$2.55	3d	1	1.21mi
12724 104th Avenue Ct E Puyallup, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	910	$1,995	$2.19	4d	8	1.27mi
12111 104th Ave E Puyallup, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	902	$1,610	$1.78	4d	1	1.29mi
13404 106th Ave E Puyallup, WA	3.0	2.0	1404	$2,650	$1.89	24d	1	1.30mi
13523 106th Ave E Puyallup, WA	3.0	2.0	1404	$2,650	$1.89	24d	1	1.37mi
13011 Meridian E Puyallup, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	942	$1,912	$2.03	2d	19	1.39mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,250 Active 192 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,250 Active 191 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,250 Active 190 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,250 Active 189 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,250 Active 187 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,250 Active 186 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,250 Active 183 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,250 Active 182 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,250 Active 181 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,250 Active 178 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,250 Active 177 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,250 Active 176 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,250 Active 175 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,250 Active 174 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    price $149,250
16. 2026-03-14
    status Active
17. 2026-03-07
    price $152,500
18. 2025-12-06
    listed $155,250 Active
19. 2021-06-28
    soldstatus $79,500 Closed
20. 2021-05-24
    status Pending
21. 2021-05-20
    listed $79,500 Active
22. 2019-03-22
    soldstatus $44,000 Sold
23. 2019-03-06
    status Pending
24. 2019-02-27
    status Pending Inspection
25. 2019-02-22
    listed $44,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,333
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,360
• − Property taxes: −$2,239
• − Insurance: −$746
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,027
• − Management: −$2,027
• − Depreciation: −$4,342
• Taxable income: $5,592
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,342
• After-tax cash flow: $6,294/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Puyallup School District
• NCES district ID: 5306960
• Math proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $68,291
• Composite: 54.01/100
• National rank: #3006
• State rank: #52 of 291 in WA

Livability — South Hill

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #84
• US rank: #1620

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A- Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Hill, WA
• County: Pierce County · 788,257 people
• City population: 76,707
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 49,007
• Household income: $112,662
• Rent vs Own: 29.5% rent · 70.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1171.0

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 956,648 people
• By 2030: 1,010,862 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,113,170 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 1,206,524 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,436,425 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 1,563,654 · +63.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 13% Asian 7% Black 4% Native American 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: D (+10.8) · D 53.9% · R 43.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 10.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.8 2020: D+11.2 2016: D+7.5 2012: D+11.0 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -431.48%
• Current HPI: 286.6617
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.72%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+239.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $149,250 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-14 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $152,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-06 Listed $155,250 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-28 Sold (MLS) $79,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-24 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-20 Listed $79,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-22 Sold (MLS) $44,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-06 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-27 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-22 Listed $44,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-1.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $255 · -79.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.