9014 Wildbird Ln · Humble, TX 77338

$205,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,211 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 88 Days on market

Built 2009 5,061 sqft lot $93/sqft · 19% below area Est $252k · 19% under $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home located in the desirable Deerbrook Estates community. This spacious two-story offers a functional layout with generous living areas, a well-appointed kitchen, and a private primary suite. Secondary bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or growing households. Enjoy a fully fenced backyard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Conveniently situated just minutes from FM 1960 and I-69/US 59, with easy access to shopping, dining, Deerbrook Mall, and Bush Intercontinental Airport. A great opportunity to own in a well-established neighborhood with excellent location and everyday convenience.

Key facts

• Excellent location
• 5,061 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• DEERBROOK ESTATES COMMUNITY
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• EXCELLENT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-23 ($-279/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (2.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $205k).
• Recommended offer: $193k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.8% in Humble — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#961 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, crime F.
• Aldine ISD (suburban): math 16% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #790 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 311 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,700 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.49%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $252,422
• List price: $205,000
• Delta: -18.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8907 Wildbird Ln	0.04mi	4/2.5	2,211 (0%)	12mo	$239,000	$108	88
9039 Farm Ridge Ln	0.15mi	4/2.5	2,260 (+2%)	10mo	$239,999	$106	81
9115 Aspen Trace Ln	0.34mi	4/2.5	2,004 (-9%)	3mo	$254,900	$127	66
8914 River Dale Canyon Ln	0.32mi	4/2.5	1,964 (-11%)	1mo	$265,000	$135	66
19902 Chaste Tree Ln	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,880 (-15%)	1mo	$272,000	$145	64
8830 River Dale Canyon Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,079 (-6%)	8mo	$275,000	$132	61
20402 Lookout Bend Dr	0.48mi	4/2.5	2,360 (+7%)	9mo	$265,000	$112	59
20214 Blue Lake View Ln	0.24mi	4/2.5	1,945 (-12%)	12mo	$275,000	$141	59
8902 River Dale Canyon Ln	0.32mi	4/2.5	1,964 (-11%)	10mo	$260,000	$132	58
8514 Sugar Wood Ct	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,960 (-11%)	5mo	$219,900	$112	47
20114 Lions Gate Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,944 (-12%)	10mo	$199,900	$103	40
8419 Opalwood Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,018 (-9%)	12mo	$279,900	$139	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.77% appreciation · 2.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-16,385
• Equity at exit: $51,709

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-3,589
• Equity at exit: $56,218

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77338

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 311
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,149 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$532 /mo · $6,379/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $-23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,179

Max offer price $200,894

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $93	-5% $35	+0% $-23	+5% $-81	+10% $-139
Rent	-10% $-193	-5% $-108	+0% $-23	+5% $62	+10% $147
Rate	-1.0pp $80	-0.5pp $29	base $-23	+0.5pp $-76	+1.0pp $-130

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20102 Bridgedale Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1635	$1,999	$1.22	44d	1	0.37mi
8818 Cornina Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.5	2868	$2,295	$0.80	0d	1	0.52mi
8902 Snapping Turtle Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,729	$1.22	8d	1	0.56mi
20418 Red Canyon Creek Ln Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	1731	$2,000	$1.16	23d	1	0.59mi
19902 Bishops Gate Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,825	$1.16	25d	1	0.68mi
20527 Faith Millstream Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2178	$2,100	$0.96	44d	1	0.71mi
20538 Faith Millstream Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,931	$1.19	23d	1	0.74mi
8419 Opalwood Ln Unit Main Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	2084	$2,482	$1.19	20d	1	0.74mi
20257 Fieldtree Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2400	$2,500	$1.04	25d	1	0.86mi
7810 Birchbark Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1663	$1,899	$1.14	25d	1	1.14mi
19931 Arrowsmith Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	2264	$1,831	$0.81	25d	1	1.18mi
21235 Grand Field Ct Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	1750	$1,800	$1.03	44d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $205,000 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricestatusdays on market $205,000 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Pending 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Pending 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,000 Pending 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $220,000 Pending 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $220,000 Pending 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $220,000 Pending 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    statusdays on market $220,000 Pending 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-05-13
    price $220,000 644-char remark

    Show marketing remark (644 chars)

    Beautiful 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home located in the desirable Deerbrook Estates community. This spacious two-story offers a functional layout with generous living areas, a well-appointed kitchen, and a private primary suite. Secondary bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or growing households. Enjoy a fully fenced backyard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Conveniently situated just minutes from FM 1960 and I-69/US 59, with easy access to shopping, dining, Deerbrook Mall, and Bush Intercontinental Airport. A great opportunity to own in a well-established neighborhood with excellent location and everyday convenience.

14. 2026-03-29
    price $225,000 644-char remark

    Show marketing remark (644 chars)

    Beautiful 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home located in the desirable Deerbrook Estates community. This spacious two-story offers a functional layout with generous living areas, a well-appointed kitchen, and a private primary suite. Secondary bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or growing households. Enjoy a fully fenced backyard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Conveniently situated just minutes from FM 1960 and I-69/US 59, with easy access to shopping, dining, Deerbrook Mall, and Bush Intercontinental Airport. A great opportunity to own in a well-established neighborhood with excellent location and everyday convenience.

15. 2026-03-19
    listed $240,000 Active 644-char remark

    Show marketing remark (644 chars)

    Beautiful 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home located in the desirable Deerbrook Estates community. This spacious two-story offers a functional layout with generous living areas, a well-appointed kitchen, and a private primary suite. Secondary bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or growing households. Enjoy a fully fenced backyard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Conveniently situated just minutes from FM 1960 and I-69/US 59, with easy access to shopping, dining, Deerbrook Mall, and Bush Intercontinental Airport. A great opportunity to own in a well-established neighborhood with excellent location and everyday convenience.

16. 2019-05-08
    soldstatus
17. 2019-05-03
    soldstatus Sold 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    Meticulously maintained and ready for you to make it your own. Light, bright, and open floor plan gives you great entertaining space. Wood-like tile welcome you throughout the entrance and living room. Custom painted kitchen cabinets provide plenty of storage in large kitchen. Big master bedroom with sitting area! Conveniently located minutes from FM-1960 and HWY 59 for shopping and dining.

18. 2019-04-15
    status Pending 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    Meticulously maintained and ready for you to make it your own. Light, bright, and open floor plan gives you great entertaining space. Wood-like tile welcome you throughout the entrance and living room. Custom painted kitchen cabinets provide plenty of storage in large kitchen. Big master bedroom with sitting area! Conveniently located minutes from FM-1960 and HWY 59 for shopping and dining.

19. 2019-04-05
    status Option Pending 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    Meticulously maintained and ready for you to make it your own. Light, bright, and open floor plan gives you great entertaining space. Wood-like tile welcome you throughout the entrance and living room. Custom painted kitchen cabinets provide plenty of storage in large kitchen. Big master bedroom with sitting area! Conveniently located minutes from FM-1960 and HWY 59 for shopping and dining.

20. 2019-03-18
    listed $185,000 Active 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    Meticulously maintained and ready for you to make it your own. Light, bright, and open floor plan gives you great entertaining space. Wood-like tile welcome you throughout the entrance and living room. Custom painted kitchen cabinets provide plenty of storage in large kitchen. Big master bedroom with sitting area! Conveniently located minutes from FM-1960 and HWY 59 for shopping and dining.

21. 2016-08-03
    soldstatus Sold
22. 2016-07-29
    soldstatus
23. 2016-06-22
    status Pending
24. 2016-06-10
    status Active
25. 2016-06-09
    status Pending, Continue to Show
26. 2016-06-06
    status Active
27. 2016-05-16
    status Pending
28. 2016-05-07
    status Option Pending
29. 2016-04-14
    price $153,500
30. 2016-04-14
    price $154,500
31. 2016-03-27
    listed $156,250 Active
32. 2014-04-22
    historical
33. 2014-02-25
    status Active
34. 2014-02-25
    status Option Pending
35. 2014-02-11
    listed $139,900 Active
36. 2009-02-16
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,379 · $532/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,379 · $532/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,789
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$6,379
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,063
• − Management: −$2,063
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$3,536
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$849
• After-tax cash flow: $570/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aldine ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807710
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,081
• Composite: 15.42/100
• National rank: #9317
• State rank: #790 of 826 in TX

Livability — Humble

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #961
• US rank: #17060

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 109,766
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,031
• Household income: $64,755
• Rent vs Own: 52.5% rent · 47.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2620.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% Black 34% Two or more races 18% White 16% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Armenian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 35% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.77%
• Current HPI: 245.7087
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.17%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+57.3% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-29 Price Changed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2019-05-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-05-03 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-04-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-04-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-03-18 Listed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2016-08-03 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2016-07-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-06-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-06-10 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2016-06-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-06-06 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2016-05-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-05-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-04-14 Price Changed $153,500 HARMLS
• 2016-04-14 Price Changed $154,500 HARMLS
• 2016-03-27 Listed $156,250 HARMLS
• 2014-04-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-02-25 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2014-02-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-02-11 Listed $139,900 HARMLS
• 2009-02-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+20.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,379 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.