506 Fox Grove Rd SW · Varnamtown, NC 28462

$229,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,382 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 3,049 sqft lot Est $245k · 6% under $89/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Fox Run, offering new homes with thoughtful details and smart designs plus a convenient location. The Westport floor plan features an open flow between the kitchen, dining and living area that is great for entertaining or comfortably interacting. The well-designed floorplan offers the open concept layout and a space that can be decorated and lived-in in many ways. The kitchen comes complete with a center island, granite countertops, a pantry closet, , 36'' cabinets and stainless steel appliances including a refrigerator! Beautiful vinyl flooring throughout the first level main living areas! A second floor owner's suite is spacious with a walk in closet and a bathroom that featu

Key facts

• Open flow
• 36 inch cabinets
• Granite countertops

Tags

• OPEN FLOW
• CENTER ISLAND
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• PANTRY CLOSET
• 36 INCH CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Fox Run
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with management; Annual association fee of $1,068 (about $89/month); Community pool; Sidewalks; Street lights

Exterior

• Parking: Parking pad
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer available; Underground utilities; Water available
• Home design: Single family residence; New construction; Two levels (2 stories); Entry level: 1; Frame construction with vinyl siding; Slab foundation; Has a view
• Construction: Built with frame and vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Home warranty included
• Exterior features: Covered front and rear porches; Porch; Pond on property; Paved private road frontage; No fencing; Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 5
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Electric heating; Central air conditioning; Heat pump cooling; Thermostat (energy-efficient)
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Entrance foyer; Kitchen island; Pantry; Window coverings; Unfurnished; Smoke detectors; Accessible full bath
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $230k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-89 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (12.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.8% in Varnamtown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#521 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, employment B; Watch: crime D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Supply Elementary (math 46% / reading 39%, grade F, #625 of 1,410 statewide, top 45%, 539 students, 99% FRL); Cedar Grove Middle (math 30% / reading 36%, grade F, #305 of 475 statewide, top 65%, 434 students, 99% FRL); West Brunswick High (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #281 of 535 statewide, top 53%, 1,526 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 506 active listings in the ZIP; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,162 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.66%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $244,614
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
493 Lancaster Woods Dr SW	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,498 (+8%)	6mo	$280,000	$187	61
489 Lancaster Woods Dr SW	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,527 (+10%)	6mo	$302,900	$198	58
1279 Stone Chimney Rd SW	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,406 (+2%)	4mo	$240,000	$171	56
1759 Stone Chimney Rd SW	0.48mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,574 (+14%)	3mo	$259,000	$165	47
1884 Rolling Green Dr SW	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,580 (+14%)	15mo	$280,000	$177	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-42,866
• Equity at exit: $34,292

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-44,300
• Equity at exit: $19,885

Cash invested: $64,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28462

• Active inventory: 506
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,012 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$287 /mo · $3,450/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$89
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $-89

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,125

Max offer price $217,078

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $70	-5% $-10	+0% $-89	+5% $-169	+10% $-248
Rent	-10% $-248	-5% $-169	+0% $-89	+5% $-10	+10% $70
Rate	-1.0pp $27	-0.5pp $-31	base $-89	+0.5pp $-149	+1.0pp $-209

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,498
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $89 · $1,068/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-19
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-19
   listed $229,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,139
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,883
• − Property taxes: −$3,450
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,931
• − Management: −$1,931
• − HOA: −$1,068
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$4,964
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,191
• After-tax cash flow: $121/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Fox Run is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a well-designed floor plan, granite countertops, and energy-efficient features, making it a great investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace windows with energy-efficient ones — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics
• Both Install smart home features — Attracts tech-savvy buyers and renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace windows with energy-efficient ones — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Attracts tech-savvy buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

Livability — Varnamtown

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #19194

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brunswick County · 131,536 people
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• Population (ZIP): 12,340
• Household income: $60,349
• Rent vs Own: 15.5% rent · 84.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 269.0

Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -259.44%
• Current HPI: 144.2462
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $229,990 Hive MLS