1403 11th St · Victoria, VA 23974

$134,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,596 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1915 6,970 sqft lot $84/sqft · 41% below area Est $157k · 15% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home (with potential for a 3rd bedroom—no closet) is a great addition to any rental portfolio. Offering a functional layout and flexible living space, the property provides solid rental appeal. Current renters would love to stay, giving investors the opportunity for immediate, consistent income with minimal downtime. A rare chance to step into a cash-flowing property from day one. With room to add value through light updates, this property offers both stability and upside potential. New Metal Roof installed in 2025 and updated electrical in 2026. Ideal for seasoned investors or those looking to get started in real estate investing. Sold as-is. Don't miss this income-producing opportunity!

Key facts

• New metal roof
• 6,970 sq ft lot
• Built 1915

Tags

• NEW METAL ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $134k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $60 ($723/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (20.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $107k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#235 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lunenburg County Public School District (rural): math 33% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #110 of 131 in VA (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 25 units permitted in Lunenburg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $49 of equity ($926 loan paydown + $-877 appreciation (-0.7% local appreciation)).
• Lunenburg County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 20% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,597 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.93%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $156,830
• List price: $134,000
• Delta: -14.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1609 12th St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,602 (+0%)	1mo	$67,000	$42	85
1415 11th St	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,586 (-1%)	15mo	$60,000	$38	80
1529 11th St	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,736 (+9%)	12mo	$170,000	$98	65
2101 Main St	0.03mi	3/1.5	1,389 (-13%)	13mo	$208,000	$150	64
2580 Jefferson Ave	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,534 (-4%)	4mo	$239,000	$156	63
2525 Jefferson Ave	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,668 (+4%)	14mo	$249,900	$150	58
2442 Nottoway Blvd	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,719 (+8%)	11mo	$185,000	$108	57
2626 Washington Ave	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,454 (-9%)	18mo	$235,000	$162	47
1524 6th St	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,389 (-13%)	19mo	$80,500	$58	46
1520 Lunenburg Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,508 (-6%)	14mo	$125,000	$83	45
1618 2nd St	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,388 (-13%)	7mo	$219,000	$158	43
2575 Sandy Ln	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,718 (+8%)	19mo	$275,000	$160	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.65% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-4,223
• Equity at exit: $34,581

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $14,087
• Equity at exit: $38,255

Cash invested: $37,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23974

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,066 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$703
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $280/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $60

Break-even live

Break-even rent $990

Max offer price $134,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $136	-5% $98	+0% $60	+5% $-130	+10% $-177
Rent	-10% $-24	-5% $18	+0% $60	+5% $102	+10% $144
Rate	-1.0pp $128	-0.5pp $94	base $60	+0.5pp $26	+1.0pp $-10

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,500
• Closing costs: $4,020
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,000 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $134,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $134,000 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $134,000 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $134,000 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $134,000 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $134,000 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $134,000 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $134,000 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $134,000 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $134,000 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,000 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,000 Active 64 DOM
16. 2026-04-24
    price $134,000 727-char remark

    Show marketing remark (727 chars)

    This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home (with potential for a 3rd bedroom—no closet) is a great addition to any rental portfolio. Offering a functional layout and flexible living space, the property provides solid rental appeal. Current renters would love to stay, giving investors the opportunity for immediate, consistent income with minimal downtime. A rare chance to step into a cash-flowing property from day one. With room to add value through light updates, this property offers both stability and upside potential. New Metal Roof installed in 2025 and updated electrical in 2026. Ideal for seasoned investors or those looking to get started in real estate investing. Sold as-is. Don't miss this income-producing opportunity!

17. 2026-03-27
    listed $141,000 Active 727-char remark

    Show marketing remark (727 chars)

    This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home (with potential for a 3rd bedroom—no closet) is a great addition to any rental portfolio. Offering a functional layout and flexible living space, the property provides solid rental appeal. Current renters would love to stay, giving investors the opportunity for immediate, consistent income with minimal downtime. A rare chance to step into a cash-flowing property from day one. With room to add value through light updates, this property offers both stability and upside potential. New Metal Roof installed in 2025 and updated electrical in 2026. Ideal for seasoned investors or those looking to get started in real estate investing. Sold as-is. Don't miss this income-producing opportunity!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $280 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,099 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$819/yr (+$68/mo · 292.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 20% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,792
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,506
• − Property taxes: −$280
• − Insurance: −$670
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,023
• − Management: −$1,023
• − Depreciation: −$3,898
• Taxable loss: −$1,609
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$386
• After-tax cash flow: $1,109/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lunenburg County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102310
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -41.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $37,728
• Composite: 38.6/100
• National rank: #4162
• State rank: #110 of 131 in VA

Livability — Victoria

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #235
• US rank: #7920

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Victoria, VA
• Population (ZIP): 4,908

Population outlook (Lunenburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,367 people
• By 2030: 10,757 · -5.4%
• By 2040: 9,464 · -16.7%
• By 2050: 8,329 · -26.7%
• By 2075: 6,292 · -44.6%
• By 2100: 4,575 · -59.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 39% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lunenburg

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.8) · D 38.3% · R 61.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.3pp toward R · 2008: -3.5pp · 2024: -22.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.8 2020: R+18.6 2016: R+17.6 2012: R+5.0 2008: R+3.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.65%
• Current HPI: 177.4653
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-5.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $134,000 SCAR
• 2026-03-27 Listed $141,000 SCAR

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $280 · +12.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.