373 Cowpoke Dr · Jarrell, TX 76537

$200,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 119 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition $133/sqft · 10% below area Est $221k · 10% under $56/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 373 Cowpoke Dr, a sleek and inviting home featuring an open floor plan with modern touches throughout. Enjoy vinyl flooring in the main living and dining areas paired with light, neutral paint colors that create a bright and welcoming atmosphere. The living room and kitchen flow seamlessly, making entertaining effortless and everyday living comfortable. Situated on a corner lot, this home is filled with abundant natural light that makes you feel right at home. With four bedrooms, the flexible layout allows space for guests, a home office, or hobby rooms to fit your needs. The backyard is ready to make your own, offering the perfect canvas for outdoor living. Located in the desirable Rancho Del Cielo master-planned community, residents enjoy amenities including pocket parks, picnic areas, green spaces, a pickleball court, and a community pool. Conveniently positioned near Berry Springs Park and Preserve, Wolf Ranch Town Center, and the University Oaks area, shopping and dining are a breeze. Plus, you're just 10 miles from Georgetown’s historic downtown, offering even more restaurants, boutiques, and entertainment options. This home combines modern style, functional space, and an unbeatable location — don’t miss it!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Vinyl flooring
• Pickleball court

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• VINYL FLOORING
• CORNER LOT
• NATURAL LIGHT
• BACKYARD
• PICKLEBALL COURT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-140 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (12.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (7.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#313 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 761 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.

Recommended offer $175,202 (12.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.01%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $221,480
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -9.70%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
433 Jones Beach Ln	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,483 (-1%)	1mo	$208,999	$141	91
417 Jones Beach Ln	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,483 (-1%)	1mo	$220,990	$149	90
405 Jones Beach Ln	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,483 (-1%)	1mo	$212,990	$144	89
506 Jones Beach Cv	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,600 (+7%)	1mo	$236,990	$148	84
436 Jones Beach Ln	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,600 (+7%)	1mo	$236,990	$148	82
527 Jones Beach Cv	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,600 (+7%)	1mo	$230,990	$144	82
510 Jones Beach Cv	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,411 (-6%)	1mo	$212,990	$151	81
519 Jones Beach Cv	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-6%)	2mo	$208,990	$149	77
261 Kings Row Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,354 (-10%)	1mo	$200,990	$148	75
468 Jones Beach Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,354 (-10%)	1mo	$220,990	$163	74
420 Jones Beach Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,354 (-10%)	1mo	$217,990	$161	71
121 Texas Angel Way	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,354 (-10%)	1mo	$198,999	$147	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-46,624
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-72,462
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76537

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 761
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,856 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$419 /mo · $5,026/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$56
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $-140

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,034

Max offer price $175,202

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
516 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,700	$1.33	43d	1	0.09mi
544 Rancho del Cielo Loop Georgetown, TX	4.0	2.0	1606	$1,800	$1.12	43d	1	0.14mi
337 Rancho del Cielo Loop Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,535	$1.09	20d	1	0.15mi
564 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,600	$1.26	2d	1	0.16mi
133 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,500	$1.22	23d	1	0.17mi
136 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,550	$1.07	4d	1	0.20mi
136 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,495	$1.03	43d	1	0.20mi
112 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1897	$1,890	$1.00	17d	1	0.22mi
856 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1447	$1,600	$1.11	43d	1	0.33mi
128 Hasty Heart Ct Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1606	$1,775	$1.11	17d	1	0.34mi
100 Tugboat Annie WAY Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.5	1984	$1,799	$0.91	43d	1	0.39mi
253 Tugboat Annie Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,495	$1.08	14d	1	0.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $56 · $672/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 119 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 114 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $200,000 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $200,000 Active 105 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 103 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 102 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 101 DOM
14. 2026-03-09
    price $209,000 1262-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1262 chars)

    Welcome to 373 Cowpoke Dr, a sleek and inviting home featuring an open floor plan with modern touches throughout. Enjoy vinyl flooring in the main living and dining areas paired with light, neutral paint colors that create a bright and welcoming atmosphere. The living room and kitchen flow seamlessly, making entertaining effortless and everyday living comfortable. Situated on a corner lot, this home is filled with abundant natural light that makes you feel right at home. With four bedrooms, the flexible layout allows space for guests, a home office, or hobby rooms to fit your needs. The backyard is ready to make your own, offering the perfect canvas for outdoor living. Located in the desirable Rancho Del Cielo master-planned community, residents enjoy amenities including pocket parks, picnic areas, green spaces, a pickleball court, and a community pool. Conveniently positioned near Berry Springs Park and Preserve, Wolf Ranch Town Center, and the University Oaks area, shopping and dining are a breeze. Plus, you're just 10 miles from Georgetown’s historic downtown, offering even more restaurants, boutiques, and entertainment options. This home combines modern style, functional space, and an unbeatable location — don’t miss it!

15. 2026-02-19
    listed $220,000 Active 1262-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1262 chars)

    Welcome to 373 Cowpoke Dr, a sleek and inviting home featuring an open floor plan with modern touches throughout. Enjoy vinyl flooring in the main living and dining areas paired with light, neutral paint colors that create a bright and welcoming atmosphere. The living room and kitchen flow seamlessly, making entertaining effortless and everyday living comfortable. Situated on a corner lot, this home is filled with abundant natural light that makes you feel right at home. With four bedrooms, the flexible layout allows space for guests, a home office, or hobby rooms to fit your needs. The backyard is ready to make your own, offering the perfect canvas for outdoor living. Located in the desirable Rancho Del Cielo master-planned community, residents enjoy amenities including pocket parks, picnic areas, green spaces, a pickleball court, and a community pool. Conveniently positioned near Berry Springs Park and Preserve, Wolf Ranch Town Center, and the University Oaks area, shopping and dining are a breeze. Plus, you're just 10 miles from Georgetown’s historic downtown, offering even more restaurants, boutiques, and entertainment options. This home combines modern style, functional space, and an unbeatable location — don’t miss it!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,026 · $419/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,026 · $419/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,277
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$5,026
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,782
• − Management: −$1,782
• − HOA: −$672
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$5,006
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,201
• After-tax cash flow: $-483/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and light, neutral paint colors. It has a welcoming entrance and a simple, well-maintained landscaping. The property is located on a corner lot with abundant natural light, making it an attractive option for both buyers and renters.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters.
• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can make the home look more inviting and can increase its value.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can make the home look more inviting and can increase its value. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jarrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824600
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,132
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8335
• State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

Livability — Jarrell

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #313
• US rank: #7020

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 680,029 people
• City population: 16,272
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,272
• Household income: $98,199
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 225.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
• Current HPI: 184.8935
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $209,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-19 Listed $220,000 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+253.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $5,026 · +253.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.