Bayberry III Plan · Argyle, TX 76226

$538,990

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,261 sqft · SingleFamily · 777 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.9/10.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Classic Series Bayberry III floor plan is a two-story home with five bedrooms and three and a half bathrooms. Features of this plan include a covered porch, formal dining or study, large family room, open kitchen with custom cabinets and island, a primary suite with a walk-in closet and ensuite bath, an upstairs game room, and a second private bedroom suite that has the option to change to a shared Jack and Jill. Contact us or visit our model home for more information about building this plan.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Upstairs game room
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• OPEN KITCHEN WITH ISLAND
• UPSTAIRS GAME ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $538,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $631,474.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $539k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $436k (19.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $381k (29.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $381k (29.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.9% in Argyle — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#658 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Argyle ISD (rural): math 71% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #8 of 826 in TX (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Hilltop El (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B-, #409 of 4,322 statewide, top 10%, 636 students, 8% FRL); Argyle Middle (math 73% / reading 63%, grade A-, #73 of 1,662 statewide, top 5%, 1,168 students, 0% FRL); Argyle H S (math 75% / reading 86%, grade A, #36 of 1,632 statewide, top 2%, 1,477 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 1339 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 47d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 777 days — a 12% lower offer ($474k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $381,368 (29.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 777 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.17%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $631,474
• List price: $538,990
• Delta: -14.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
405 Meandering Creek Dr	0.16mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,230 (-1%)	1mo	$714,900	$221	81
5405 Parkplace Dr	0.27mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,249 (-0%)	0mo	$491,500	$151	80
215 River Meadows Ln	0.13mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,409 (+4%)	4mo	$700,000	$205	78
6301 Meandering Creek Dr	0.52mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,334 (+2%)	1mo	$515,000	$154	66
9413 Lakeway Dr	0.56mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,268 (+0%)	4mo	$510,000	$156	63
9413 Lake Fork Trl	0.60mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,338 (+2%)	0mo	$432,000	$129	63
9505 Meadowpark Dr	0.48mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,098 (-5%)	3mo	$559,000	$180	58
6509 Roaring Crk	0.65mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,177 (-3%)	2mo	$479,900	$151	56
9004 Conroe Dr	0.73mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,411 (+5%)	4mo	$525,000	$154	50
9516 Lakeway Dr	0.47mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,870 (-12%)	2mo	$475,000	$166	47
6500 Roaring Crk	0.66mi	5/3.5	3,631 (+11%)	4mo	$499,000	$137	47
316 Carrington Dr	0.74mi	4/5.0 (-1)	3,520 (+8%)	2mo	$1,250,000	$355	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-193,586
• Equity at exit: $94,155

10-year hold

• IRR: -52.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.70×
• Total profit: $-300,142
• Equity at exit: $54,598

Cash invested: $176,813 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 60 active · 23 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.0 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $592,995 ($186/sqft)
• Median days on market: 117 d
• This list price: 27% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +4.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76226

• Home prices YoY: -24.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 1339
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,814 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,312
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$789 /mo · $9,472/yr
• Insurance: −$263
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$801
• Net cashflow: $-1,351

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,524

Max offer price $435,958

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-915	-5% $-1,133	+0% $-1,351	+5% $-1,569	+10% $-1,788
Rent	-10% $-1,652	-5% $-1,502	+0% $-1,351	+5% $-1,201	+10% $-1,050
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,033	-0.5pp $-1,191	base $-1,351	+0.5pp $-1,515	+1.0pp $-1,681

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $157,868
• Closing costs: $18,944
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5108 Parkplace Dr Argyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2741	$2,796	$1.02	93d	1	0.39mi
5908 Parkplace Dr Argyle, TX	4.0	2.0	2516	$2,900	$1.15	52d	1	0.41mi
5100 Brookside Dr Argyle, TX	5.0	4.0	2940	$2,995	$1.02	0d	1	0.44mi
6308 Meandering Creek Dr Argyle, TX	4.0	2.5	3419	$3,200	$0.94	93d	1	0.55mi
306 Village Way Argyle, TX	5.0	3.0	2869	$9,995	$3.48	46d	1	0.59mi
312 Carrington Dr Argyle, TX	4.0	3.5	3600	$6,500	$1.81	4d	1	0.73mi
525 Hearth Ter Argyle, TX	4.0	3.0	3000	$3,600	$1.20	0d	1	0.75mi
9100 Amistad Ln Argyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2320	$2,700	$1.16	0d	1	0.88mi
5308 Century Lake Ln Argyle, TX	4.0	3.0	3285	$3,395	$1.03	66d	1	0.96mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $538,990 Active 777 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $538,990 Active 775 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $538,990 Active 774 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $538,990 Active 773 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $538,990 Active 772 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $538,990 Active 769 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $538,990 Active 768 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $538,990 Active 767 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $538,990 Active 766 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $538,990 Active 764 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $538,990 Active 762 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $538,990 Active 761 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $538,990 Active 760 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $538,990 Active 759 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $538,990 Active 758 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $538,990 Active 756 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $538,990 Active 755 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $538,990 Active 754 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $538,990 Active 753 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $538,990 Active 752 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $538,990 Active 751 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $538,990 Active 750 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $538,990 Active 749 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $538,990 Active 748 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $538,990 Active 747 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $538,990 Active 745 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $538,990 Active 744 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $538,990 Active 743 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $538,990 Active 742 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $538,990 Active 741 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $538,990 Active 740 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $538,990 Active 739 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $538,990 Active 738 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $538,990 Active 737 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $538,990 Active 736 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $538,990 Active 735 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $538,990 Active 734 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $538,990 Active 732 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $538,990 Active 730 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $538,990 Active 729 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $538,990 Active 726 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $538,990 Active 725 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $538,990 Active 724 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $538,990 Active 723 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $538,990 Active 721 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $538,990 Active 720 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $538,990 Active 717 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $538,990 Active 716 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $538,990 Active 715 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $538,990 Active 712 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,764
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,372
• − Property taxes: −$9,472
• − Insurance: −$3,157
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,661
• − Management: −$3,661
• − Depreciation: −$18,370
• Taxable loss: −$27,930
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,703
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,511/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home in Argyle, TX, is in good condition with a neutral and inviting interior. It has a stone exterior and hardwood flooring, making it move-in ready. The home's curb appeal can be enhanced with a fresh coat of paint, and updates to the bathrooms and smart home technology can further increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood — Improves both resale and rental value ↑
• Resale Update bathrooms with modern fixtures — Attracts more buyers ↑
• Rental Install smart home technology — Attracts tech-savvy renters ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 69/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hilltop El B- TX #409/4,322 Nat'l #7,252/41,679 Middle Argyle Middle A- TX #73/1,662 Nat'l #970/14,009 High Argyle H S A TX #36/1,632 Nat'l #1,058/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Argyle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808670
• Math proficiency: 71% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $108,516
• Composite: 64.16/100
• National rank: #568
• State rank: #8 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Argyle

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #658
• US rank: #12392

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Argyle, TX
• County: Denton County · 1,053,010 people
• City population: 43,587
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 43,587
• Household income: $180,982
• Rent vs Own: 6.4% rent · 93.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10% Asian 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.81%
• Current HPI: 253.1948
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.61%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-03-01 Price Changed $538,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-01 Price Changed $553,990 Zillow
• 2025-02-01 Price Changed $533,990 Zillow
• 2025-02-01 Price Changed $548,990 Zillow
• 2024-06-22 Listed $528,990 Zillow
• 2024-06-03 Listed $543,990 Zillow