2609 W Southern Ave #125 · Tempe, AZ 85282

$28,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 950 sqft · Manufactured · 515 Days on market

Built 1977 4,000 sqft lot Est $34k · 18% under ↓ 40% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming single-wide mobile home in a quiet, well-maintained neighborhood. Enjoy access to a great community center and peaceful surroundings. This home is vacant and move-in ready, featuring a new porch cover and recently sealed rooftop for added value and protection. A great opportunity for comfortable and affordable living. Vacant.

Key facts

• 4,000 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot features: 4,000 (source: owner); Directions: from 48th Street and Southern Ave go east on Southern Ave; south into Contempo Tempe driveway into the park
• HOA & community: Trash service included in association fees; Land lease: $800 monthly; Community pool; Community spa; Pickleball courts; Tennis courts; Gated community; Fitness center

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured / Mobile home; Leasehold property
• Construction: Painted exterior; Rolled/Hot Mop roof
• Exterior features: Natural desert front and back; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Full bath in master bedroom; Vinyl frame windows

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $28k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $28k).
• Recommended offer: $25k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 54.7% vs local median 3.4% in Tempe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#10 in AZ, #2,527 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living C-, health & safety D.
• Tempe School District (4258) (urban): math 17% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #170 of 249 in AZ (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 174 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $194 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $840 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 515 days — a 12% lower offer ($25k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (40%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $24,640 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 515 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 54.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 172.72%
• DSCR: 8.69
• GRM: 1.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $34,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2609 W Southern Ave #258	0.00mi	2/2.0	966 (+2%)	7mo	$32,500	$34	92
2609 W Southern Ave #328	0.00mi	2/2.0	950 (0%)	15mo	$55,000	$58	88
2609 W Southern Ave #38	0.00mi	2/2.0	980 (+3%)	10mo	$25,000	$26	86
2609 W Southern Ave #333	0.00mi	2/2.0	980 (+3%)	12mo	$35,000	$36	85
2609 W Southern Ave #227	0.05mi	2/1.5	980 (+3%)	7mo	$27,100	$28	84
2401 W Southern Ave #211	0.18mi	2/2.0	966 (+2%)	5mo	$35,000	$36	84
2609 W Southern Ave #430	0.00mi	2/2.0	896 (-6%)	15mo	$15,000	$17	78
2401 W Southern Ave #110	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,005 (+6%)	9mo	$14,500	$14	74
2401 W Southern Ave #106	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,020 (+7%)	3mo	$74,000	$73	72
2609 W Southern Ave #197	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+11%)	14mo	$40,000	$38	69
2401 W Southern Ave #254	0.18mi	2/1.0	1,000 (+5%)	15mo	$66,500	$67	66
2401 W Southern Ave #82	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+11%)	21mo	$83,000	$79	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.97×
• Total profit: $62,457
• Equity at exit: $4,175

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 17.34×
• Total profit: $128,084
• Equity at exit: $2,421

Cash invested: $7,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85282

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 174
• Price-to-rent: 1.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,673 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$147
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$35 /mo · $420/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $1,128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $245

Max offer price $28,000

Occupancy floor 28%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,148	-5% $1,138	+0% $1,128	+5% $1,119	+10% $1,109
Rent	-10% $996	-5% $1,062	+0% $1,128	+5% $1,195	+10% $1,261
Rate	-1.0pp $1,143	-0.5pp $1,136	base $1,128	+0.5pp $1,121	+1.0pp $1,114

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,000
• Closing costs: $840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1688 W Village Way Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.0	894	$1,650	$1.85	2d	1	0.64mi
2401 W Fremont Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.0	1074	$1,700	$1.58	2d	1	0.67mi
4312 E Burgess Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1025	$1,675	$1.63	2d	1	0.78mi
1600 E La Jolla Dr Tempe, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	881	$1,808	$2.05	2d	26	0.78mi
4901 S Calle Los Cerros Dr Tempe, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	868	$1,995	$2.30	2d	3	0.79mi
1600 W La Jolla Dr Tempe, AZ	1.0	1.0	688	$1,502	$2.18	2d	1	0.82mi
1600 W La Jolla Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.0	948	$1,809	$1.91	3d	1	0.82mi
1600 W La Jolla Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.0	948	$1,776	$1.87	2d	1	0.82mi
1440 W La Jolla Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.5	1075	$1,950	$1.81	2d	1	0.83mi
7409 S 46th St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,975	$1.76	15d	1	0.91mi
4520 E Baseline Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	757	$1,437	$1.90	2d	24	0.92mi
4424 E Baseline Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	930	$1,550	$1.67	2d	54	0.99mi
2520 S Plaza Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	940	$1,928	$2.05	2d	15	1.07mi
2520 S Plaza Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,901	$2.00	11d	19	1.07mi
2155 S 55th St Tempe, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1067	$1,952	$1.83	2d	13	1.09mi
6250 S 40th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1041	$1,940	$1.86	2d	16	1.20mi
1651 W Baseline Rd Tempe, AZ	1.0	1.0	495	$1,450	$2.93	2d	12	1.20mi
4441 E Wood St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.5	1008	$1,295	$1.28	13d	1	1.25mi
2100 S Priest Dr Unit 1386547P Tempe, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	973	$2,196	$2.26	5d	2	1.26mi
4410 E Pueblo Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	792	$1,400	$1.77	2d	1	1.26mi
4514 E Riverside St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1008	$995	$0.99	2d	1	1.26mi
5300 S Priest Dr Tempe, AZ	1.0	1.0	465	$1,200	$2.58	2d	5	1.28mi
4615 E Jones Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,400	$1.39	2d	1	1.28mi
4420 E Wood St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1016	$1,300	$1.28	2d	1	1.30mi
4839 S Darrow Dr Tempe, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	712	$1,695	$2.38	2d	12	1.30mi
4014 S 44th Way Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,595	$1.45	2d	1	1.36mi
1222 W Baseline Rd #261 Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.0	980	$1,400	$1.43	2d	1	1.38mi
4006 S 44th St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.5	1090	$1,195	$1.10	15d	1	1.40mi
909 W Malibu Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,850	$1.69	2d	1	1.42mi
1330 W Broadway Rd Tempe, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	738	$1,222	$1.66	2d	13	1.45mi
1330 W Broadway Rd Apt A111 Tempe, AZ	1.0	1.0	630	$1,049	$1.67	2d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $28,000 Active 515 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $28,000 Active 514 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $28,000 Active 513 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $28,000 Active 512 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $28,000 Active 510 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $28,000 Active 509 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $28,000 Active 506 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $28,000 Active 505 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $28,000 Active 504 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $28,000 Active 501 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $28,000 Active 500 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $28,000 Active 499 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $28,000 Active 498 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $28,000 Active 497 DOM
15. 2026-04-20
    status Active
16. 2026-04-16
    status Pending
17. 2026-03-31
    price $28,000
18. 2026-02-25
    price $29,900
19. 2026-01-15
    price $32,500
20. 2025-11-10
    price $34,500
21. 2025-11-05
    status Active
22. 2025-10-30
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
23. 2025-08-22
    price $36,000
24. 2025-05-11
    price $37,500
25. 2025-04-07
    price $39,500
26. 2025-02-28
    price $41,000
27. 2025-02-08
    price $45,000
28. 2025-01-14
    listed $47,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,081
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,568
• − Property taxes: −$420
• − Insurance: −$140
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,606
• − Management: −$1,606
• − Depreciation: −$815
• Taxable income: $13,925
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,342
• After-tax cash flow: $10,200/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tempe School District (4258)
• NCES district ID: 0408310
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,112
• Composite: 19.7/100
• National rank: #8721
• State rank: #170 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tempe

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #2527

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tempe, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 193,337
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 53,624
• Household income: $79,036
• Rent vs Own: 53.0% rent · 47.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2973.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 13% Black 9% Asian 6% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 12% Chinese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -343.77%
• Current HPI: 353.6986
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.61%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-40.4% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $28,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $29,900 ARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $32,500 ARMLS
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $34,500 ARMLS
• 2025-11-05 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-10-30 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2025-08-22 Price Changed $36,000 ARMLS
• 2025-05-11 Price Changed $37,500 ARMLS
• 2025-04-07 Price Changed $39,500 ARMLS
• 2025-02-28 Price Changed $41,000 ARMLS
• 2025-02-08 Price Changed $45,000 ARMLS
• 2025-01-14 Listed $47,000 ARMLS