4998 Key Lime Dr #105 · Jacksonville, FL 32256

$165,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 978 sqft · Condo public records · 62 Days on market

Built 2009

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Stunning ground-floor condo in the highly desirable gated community of Summer Key! Investor Welcome (tenant in place). This turnkey 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom unit offers complete peace of mind with a brand-new A/C system installed in 2025 and a full renovation completed in 2023. The interior features a modern open concept floor plan with updated flooring, 42" kitchen cabinets, granite countertops, and stainless steel appliances. The split bedroom layout provides maximum privacy, perfect for roommates or a home office. Enjoy the Florida lifestyle with resort-style amenities, including a sparkling pool, fitness center, indoor basketball court, and clubhouse. Ideally located just minutes from

Key facts

• Modern open concept
• Full renovation
• 42 kitchen cabinets

Tags

• BRAND-NEW A/C SYSTEM
• FULL RENOVATION
• MODERN OPEN CONCEPT
• UPDATED FLOORING
• 42 KITCHEN CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets not allowed
• HOA & community: Association: Summer Key Condominium Association Inc.; Monthly association fees; Association covers grounds and structure maintenance, pest control, security, trash, reserve funds, roof repairs and recreation facility; Community amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool, basketball and shuffleboard courts, community room, maintained grounds, sidewalks, street lights and recreation facilities

Exterior

• Parking: 1 assigned parking space; Guest parking available
• Security: Smoke detectors; Gated community; Security provided by association
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Condominium; Resale property; 3-story building; North-facing
• Construction: Built with frame, fiber cement and stucco; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Open patio; Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central air conditioning (electric) with individual controls
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Closet cabinetry; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry in a laundry closet; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $166k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-289 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (5.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $156k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 513 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($156k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $128k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,946 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.47%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.58% appreciation · 0.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-38,965
• Equity at exit: $35,492

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.36×
• Total profit: $-63,072
• Equity at exit: $33,513

Cash invested: $46,452 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32256

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 513
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,575 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$870
• Tax from tax record: −$224 /mo · $2,691/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA est. from 2 same-building comps: −$370
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $-289

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,941

Max offer price $114,800

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,475
• Closing costs: $4,977
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5006 Key Lime Dr Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1068	$1,335	$1.25	21d	2	0.03mi
5006 Key Lime Dr Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1068	$1,335	$1.25	20d	2	0.03mi
4974 Key Lime Dr Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	927	$1,650	$1.78	23d	1	0.11mi
8215 Green Parrot Rd #103 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	978	$1,429	$1.46	11d	1	0.14mi
4931 Key Lime Dr #205 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	927	$1,350	$1.46	21d	1	0.18mi
8649 A C Skinner Pkwy Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1093	$1,710	$1.56	1d	21	0.23mi
8681 A C Skinner Pkwy Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1103	$1,744	$1.58	1d	22	0.25mi
8409 Zenith Cir Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1110	$1,695	$1.53	23d	1	0.30mi
8876 A C Skinner Pkwy Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0–3.0	1050	$2,048	$1.95	3d	35	0.35mi
8362 Retrograde Rd Jacksonville, FL	2.0	3.0	1009	$1,650	$1.64	4d	1	0.38mi
8362 Retrograde Rd Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1009	$1,650	$1.64	16d	1	0.38mi
8330 Zenith Cir Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1109	$1,650	$1.49	23d	1	0.38mi
8330 Zenith Cir Jacksonville, FL	2.0	3.0	1109	$1,650	$1.49	23d	1	0.38mi
8319 Zenith Cir Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1110	$1,700	$1.53	14d	1	0.40mi
8317 Asteroid St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1109	$1,650	$1.49	23d	1	0.40mi
7524 Southside Blvd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,350	$1.74	16d	10	0.58mi
8181 A C Skinner Pkwy Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0–3.0	1055	$2,641	$2.50	3d	40	0.62mi
8450 Gate Pkwy W Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1194	$1,676	$1.40	3d	19	0.75mi
7738 A C Skinner Pkwy Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	960	$2,187	$2.28	1d	13	0.78mi
9734 Tapestry Park Cir Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1094	$1,762	$1.61	1d	41	0.78mi
7595 Baymeadows Cir W Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1027	$1,402	$1.37	1d	29	0.79mi
8539 Gate Pkwy W Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	995	$1,597	$1.61	17d	7	0.80mi
8539 Gate Pkwy W Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	995	$1,548	$1.56	14d	6	0.80mi
8539 Gate Pkwy W Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	995	$1,548	$1.56	4d	4	0.80mi
8539 Gate Pkwy W Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	995	$1,599	$1.61	14d	5	0.80mi
9803 Creekfront Rd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1084	$1,534	$1.41	2d	79	0.85mi
4870 Deer Lake Dr E Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	953	$1,754	$1.84	1d	1	0.89mi
8451 Gate Pkwy W Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1107	$1,802	$1.63	10d	21	0.95mi
7740 Southside Blvd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1125	$1,541	$1.37	3d	9	1.00mi
8290 Gate Pkwy W Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	946	$1,450	$1.53	1d	8	1.06mi
8290 Gate Pkwy W Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1007	$1,600	$1.59	23d	5	1.06mi
7816 Southside Blvd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1115	$2,182	$1.96	1d	1	1.08mi
10010 Skinner Lake Dr Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1001	$1,574	$1.57	1d	14	1.17mi
10640 Satori Ln Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	933	$1,913	$2.05	4d	24	1.17mi
7915 Baymeadows Cir E Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1142	$1,402	$1.23	1d	59	1.22mi
10000 Gate Pkwy N Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	920	$1,550	$1.68	7d	1	1.32mi
9825 Gate Pkwy N Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1281	$1,790	$1.40	1d	29	1.32mi
7932 Southside Blvd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	925	$1,525	$1.65	23d	1	1.34mi
8025 Baymeadows Cir E Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.5	1115	$1,699	$1.52	3d	7	1.44mi
8024 Southside Blvd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	795	$1,495	$1.88	1d	18	1.46mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: poolgymsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,900 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,900 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,900 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,900 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,900 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,900 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,900 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,900 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $165,900 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,900 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,900 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,900 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,900 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-04-17
    listed $165,900 Active
15. 2025-01-10
    historical $1,500
16. 2025-01-06
    listed $1,500
17. 2024-02-27
    historical $1,500
18. 2024-01-15
    listed $1,500
19. 2019-08-29
    soldstatus $127,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,691 · $224/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,691 · $224/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,897
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,293
• − Property taxes: −$2,691
• − Insurance: −$830
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,512
• − Management: −$1,512
• − HOA: −$4,440
• − Depreciation: −$4,826
• Taxable loss: −$6,205
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,489
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,982/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 58,192
• Household income: $73,570
• Rent vs Own: 61.3% rent · 38.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2706.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 18% Asian 13% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 6% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Current HPI: 216.5115
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.39%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+30.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $165,900 Beaches MLS
• 2025-01-10 Rental Removed $1,500 GFLMLS
• 2025-01-06 Listed for Rent $1,500 GFLMLS
• 2024-02-27 Rental Removed $1,500 GFLMLS
• 2024-01-15 Listed for Rent $1,500 GFLMLS
• 2019-08-29 Sold (Public Records) $127,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,691 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.