568 Gulliver Ter · Orange Lake, NY 12586

$99,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured · 232 Days on market

Built 2008 Fair condition $108/sqft · 18% below area Est $122k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious & Affordable 3 Bdrm 2 full bath Mobile in Sleepy Hollow Park. Master Bdrm w/walk in closet & 2nd closet. Split Bdrms for privacy. Conveniently located within the Valley Central School District. Great commuter location, minutes to I-84 & NYS Thruway + Stewart International Airport. With a little cosmetic work you can have a Gem.

Key facts

• Commuter location
• Split bdrms
• Minutes to i-84

Tags

• WALK IN CLOSET
• SPLIT BDRMS
• COMMUTER LOCATION
• MINUTES TO I-84
• STEWART INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $885 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.0% vs local median 2.8% in Orange Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#972 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Valley Central School District (Montgomery) (rural): math 54% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #299 of 590 in NY (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $688 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 232 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 232 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.14%
• DSCR: 2.70
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $121,935
• List price: $99,500
• Delta: -18.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
759 Tarrytown Ln	0.08mi	3/1.0	980 (+6%)	8mo	$108,000	$110	75
916 Legend Dr	0.16mi	3/1.0	975 (+6%)	11mo	$125,000	$128	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $40,301
• Equity at exit: $14,836

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.87×
• Total profit: $107,831
• Equity at exit: $8,603

Cash invested: $27,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12586

• Home prices YoY: -15.6%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,991 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$124 /mo · $1,492/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $885

Break-even live

Break-even rent $870

Max offer price $99,500

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,875
• Closing costs: $2,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,500 Active 232 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,500 Active 231 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,500 Active 230 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,500 Active 229 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,500 Active 227 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,500 Active 224 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,500 Active 223 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,500 Active 222 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,500 Active 221 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,500 Active 218 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,500 Active 217 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,500 Active 216 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,500 Active 215 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,500 Active 214 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,500 Active 213 DOM
16. 2025-10-29
    listed $99,500 Active 358-char remark

    Show marketing remark (358 chars)

    Spacious & Affordable 3 Bdrm 2 full bath Mobile in Sleepy Hollow Park. Master Bdrm w/walk in closet & 2nd closet. Split Bdrms for privacy. Conveniently located within the Valley Central School District. Great commuter location, minutes to I-84 & NYS Thruway + Stewart International Airport. With a little cosmetic work you can have a Gem.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,895
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,574
• − Property taxes: −$1,492
• − Insurance: −$498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,912
• − Management: −$1,912
• − Depreciation: −$2,895
• Taxable income: $9,613
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,307
• After-tax cash flow: $8,318/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires moderate renovations to modernize the kitchen and bathroom, and a fresh coat of paint to improve its overall appearance.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate kitchen countertops — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate kitchen appliances — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate bathroom tile — dated and in need of replacement

Value-add opportunities

• Resale new kitchen cabinets, countertops, and appliances — modernizing the kitchen would significantly increase its appeal
• Resale new bathroom fixtures and tile — modernizing the bathroom would significantly increase its appeal
• Both paint interior walls — painting interior walls would improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
kitchen countertops · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
kitchen appliances · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom tile · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$15,000–75,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale new kitchen cabinets, countertops, and appliances — modernizing the kitchen would significantly increase its appeal ↑
• Resale new bathroom fixtures and tile — modernizing the bathroom would significantly increase its appeal ↑
• Both paint interior walls — painting interior walls would improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley Central School District (Montgomery)
• NCES district ID: 3619680
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $69,186
• Composite: 47.53/100
• National rank: #2271
• State rank: #299 of 590 in NY

Livability — Orange Lake

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #972
• US rank: #18993

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,874

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 15% Black 7% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 9% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.44%
• Current HPI: 315.1034
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-10-29 Listed $99,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid