2420 Poinciana Ave · St. James City, FL 33956

$299,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 118 Days on market

Built 2008 5,445 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Hey Folks !! Are you looking for a super Home to live the Island Life? Well here it is! This 2 story home has 3 bedrooms and 2 1/2 baths. It sits on a large lot across the street from the park. Bring your blender, the Margarita mix and get ready to start livin.

Key facts

• Waterfront bars
• Gulf access
• Golf carts common

Tags

• WATERFRONT BARS
• ELEVATED CONSTRUCTION
• LOW MAINTENANCE
• GULF ACCESS
• WATERFRONT SEAFOOD RESTAURANTS
• GOLF CARTS COMMON

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Porch (covered entry)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Cable available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: 2-story home; Entry level: 1; Faces south
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Shingle roof; Raised foundation; Built as resale property
• Exterior features: Open porch; Across-the-road waterfront frontage; Corner lot; Irregular lot; Paved public road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on upper level
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Tub with shower; Upper-level primary bedroom; Window treatments; Split bedroom layout; Single hung windows; Shutters; Window coverings; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer included; Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $300k).
• Recommended offer: $273k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.4% vs local median 4.9% in St. James City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $89k; list at $300k implies a 237% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $272,909 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.94%
• DSCR: 2.29
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $845,640
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2443 Carambola Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,627 (+0%)	2mo	$849,000	$522	80
3610 Outrigger Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,589 (-2%)	14mo	$695,000	$437	65
3459 1st Ave	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,702 (+5%)	10mo	$962,000	$565	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $53,486
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $178,706
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33956

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$227 /mo · $2,721/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,050
• Net cashflow: $1,599

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,976

Max offer price $299,900

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3811 Emerald Ave Saint James City, FL	3.0	2.5	1500	$5,500	$3.67	23d	1	0.56mi
2951 York Rd Saint James City, FL	2.0	2.0	1444	$5,500	$3.81	23d	1	0.64mi
3103 Harpoon Ln Saint James City, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$3,000	$2.74	23d	1	0.89mi
4011 Galt Island Ave Saint James City, FL	3.0	2.0	1836	$5,000	$2.72	23d	1	1.08mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 114 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,900 Active 111 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,900 Active 108 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $299,900 Active 103 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $299,900 Active 102 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 101 DOM
11. 2026-02-20
    listed $299,900 Active
12. 2025-12-29
    historical
13. 2025-11-15
    status Active
14. 2025-10-30
    price $315,000
15. 2025-06-05
    historical
16. 2025-03-21
    listed $349,900 Active
17. 2016-03-01
    price $88,959 261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (261 chars)

    Hey Folks !! Are you looking for a super Home to live the Island Life? Well here it is! This 2 story home has 3 bedrooms and 2 1/2 baths. It sits on a large lot across the street from the park. Bring your blender, the Margarita mix and get ready to start livin.

18. 2012-02-17
    soldstatus $89,000 261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (261 chars)

    Hey Folks !! Are you looking for a super Home to live the Island Life? Well here it is! This 2 story home has 3 bedrooms and 2 1/2 baths. It sits on a large lot across the street from the park. Bring your blender, the Margarita mix and get ready to start livin.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,721 · $227/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,721 · $227/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $59,998
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$2,721
• − Insurance: −$6,618
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,800
• − Management: −$4,800
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable income: $15,536
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,729
• After-tax cash flow: $15,458/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. James City

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. James City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 3,846

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Pacific Islander 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.47%
• Current HPI: 300.1416
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+237.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-20 Listed $299,900 FORTMLS
• 2025-12-29 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2025-11-15 Relisted — FORTMLS
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $315,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-06-05 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2025-03-21 Listed $349,900 FORTMLS
• 2016-03-01 Price Changed $88,959 FORTMLS
• 2012-02-17 Sold (MLS) $89,000 FORTMLS

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,721 · +14.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.