4263 Sand Dollar Way · Zephyrhills West, FL 33541

$349,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,305 sqft · Land · 61 Days on market

Built 2026 5,752 sqft lot $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. The builder is offering buyers up to $25,000 towards closing costs with the use of a preferred lender and title company. Harvest Ridge offers new homes in Zephyrhills, located off SR-54 and Lane Rd. The community is nestled in the heart of Zephyrhills, close to retail and restaurants, and only 40 minutes from downtown Tampa. Just down the road you’ll find downtown Zephyrhills, a quaint main street with antique stores, Zephyrhills Brewing Company, Your Turn Board Game Café, bakeries, and Tina and Joe’s Café, a charming eatery in the heart of downtown. Zephyrhills is not far from downtown Dade City and the Wesley Chapel area, providing a multitude

Key facts

• Quaint main street
• Antique stores
• 5,752 sq ft lot

Tags

• NEW HOMES IN ZEPHYRHILLS
• 40 MINUTES FROM DOWNTOWN TAMPA
• QUAINT MAIN STREET
• ANTIQUE STORES
• ZEPHYRHILLS BREWING COMPANY
• YOUR TURN BOARD GAME CAFE

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-456 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (23.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (34.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (34.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 7.8% in Zephyrhills West — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#772 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chester W. Taylor Jr. Elementary School (math 33% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,697 of 2,144 statewide, top 80%, 654 students, 77% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 48% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 856 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,295/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 393% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($329k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $229,542 (34.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.59%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-92,565
• Equity at exit: $52,185

10-year hold

• IRR: -45.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.47×
• Total profit: $-144,261
• Equity at exit: $30,261

Cash invested: $97,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33541

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 856
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,295 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$272 /mo · $3,259/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $-456

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,873

Max offer price $269,368

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,498
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
37357 Sharks Eye Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1961	$2,600	$1.33	24d	1	0.24mi
37688 Leafside Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,935	$1.18	24d	1	0.34mi
37685 Leafside Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,970	$1.21	5d	1	0.34mi
37726 Leafside Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,985	$1.21	22d	1	0.35mi
38114 Fallstone Way Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,970	$1.21	22d	1	0.49mi
38142 Fallstone Way Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,895	$1.16	22d	1	0.50mi
38064 Fallstone Way Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,895	$1.16	18d	1	0.52mi
38034 Fallstone Way Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,895	$1.16	22d	1	0.55mi
38028 Fallstone Way Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,895	$1.16	22d	1	0.56mi
4235 Ryals Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	2000	$2,250	$1.12	11d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   price $349,990
3. 2026-03-18
   price $359,990
4. 2026-03-05
   price $369,990
5. 2026-02-11
   listed $373,990 Active
6. 2025-01-09
   soldstatus $1,720,531

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,259 · $272/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,259 · $272/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,545
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$3,259
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,204
• − Management: −$2,204
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$11,861
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,847
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,630/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills West

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #772
• US rank: #17403

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zephyrhills West, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,654
• Household income: $56,579
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 393.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.21%
• Current HPI: 308.0619
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-79.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $349,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $359,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $369,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-11 Listed $373,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-09 Sold (Public Records) $1,720,531 Public Records

Property tax history

+90.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,259 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.