9 Shenandoah River Dr · Brownsville, TX 78520

$199,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,840 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 148 Days on market

Built 1986 0.26 ac lot $108/sqft · 29% below area Est $280k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 2- bedroom, 2-Bath home offers incredible potential in a highly sought-after 55+gated community. in addition to the main living areas, the property includes two versatile bonus rooms perfect for a home office, guest space, or hobby room. While the home needs a little TLC, it presents a wonderful opportunity to customize and make it your own. guard-gated neighborhood, residents enjoy a wide range of amenities including a golf course and pickleball courts.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Pickleball courts
• Golf course

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• GUARD GATED NEIGHBORHOOD
• GOLF COURSE
• PICKLEBALL COURTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8 ($101/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (1.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 5.0% in Brownsville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#62 in TX, #2,311 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities D, crime D-.
• Brownsville ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #710 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.4%/yr); 346 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,956/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 1800% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.18%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $279,945
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -28.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4567 River Oak Cir	0.50mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,706 (-7%)	13mo	$297,000	$174	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-21,247
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $29,749
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78520

• Home prices YoY: -19.8%
• Rents YoY: 11.4%
• Active inventory: 346
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,956 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$410 /mo · $4,919/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,945

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
33 Shenandoah River Dr Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	1579	$2,000	$1.27	13d	1	0.11mi
5105 River Dr #5105 , TX	3.0	2.5	1755	$2,300	$1.31	43d	1	0.60mi
4704 River Oak Cir Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.5	1785	$2,300	$1.29	43d	1	0.64mi
4671 River Oak Cir Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.5	1790	$2,300	$1.28	13d	1	0.68mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 148 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 146 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 145 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 142 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 140 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 139 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 138 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 137 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,000 Active 134 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 133 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 132 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 131 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 130 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,000 Active 129 DOM
17. 2026-01-21
    listed $199,000 Active 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    This 2- bedroom, 2-Bath home offers incredible potential in a highly sought-after 55+gated community. in addition to the main living areas, the property includes two versatile bonus rooms perfect for a home office, guest space, or hobby room. While the home needs a little TLC, it presents a wonderful opportunity to customize and make it your own. guard-gated neighborhood, residents enjoy a wide range of amenities including a golf course and pickleball courts.

18. 2025-09-05
    price $199,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,919 · $410/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,919 · $410/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,466
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$4,919
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,877
• − Management: −$1,877
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$3,139
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$753
• After-tax cash flow: $854/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811680
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $30,490
• Composite: 21.8/100
• National rank: #8249
• State rank: #710 of 826 in TX

Livability — Brownsville

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #62
• US rank: #2311

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brownsville, TX
• County: Cameron County · 310,734 people
• City population: 212,132
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• Population (ZIP): 64,740
• Household income: $50,116
• Rent vs Own: 39.8% rent · 60.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1800.0

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 93% Two or more races 44% White 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 88%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.91%
• Current HPI: 214.4335
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.41%
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-21 Listed $199,000 RGVMLS
• 2025-09-05 Price Changed $199,000 RGVMLS

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,919 · +14.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.