Riley Plan · Leland, NC 28451

$321,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,126 sqft · SingleFamily · 119 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Cash flow +0.2/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the Riley, an original floorplan design that has consistently been one of our top-selling plans. The Riley offers a generous range in size from 2,985 to 3,132 square feet, ensuring ample space for your family. With 3 to 5 Bedrooms and 2.5 to 4.5 Bathrooms, this versatile floorplan is designed to accommodate various family needs. On the First Floor, you'll be welcomed by a large open Living Room and an Open Dining Room Area, creating an inviting atmosphere as you step inside The Riley. Proceed into the Oversized Great Room, leading you to the L-shaped Kitchen with a Kitchen Island, making meal preparation and entertaining a breeze.

Key facts

• L-shaped kitchen
• Oversized great room
• Kitchen island

Tags

• LARGE OPEN LIVING ROOM
• OPEN DINING ROOM AREA
• OVERSIZED GREAT ROOM
• L-SHAPED KITCHEN
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• OVERSIZED PRIMARY BEDROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $321,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $748,830.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $322k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-40k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (18.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (28.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (28.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 0.9% vs local median 3.1% in Leland — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#177 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Elementary (math 44% / reading 37%, grade F, #682 of 1,410 statewide, top 49%, 675 students, 100% FRL); Leland Middle (math 26% / reading 36%, grade F, #326 of 475 statewide, top 69%, 780 students, 100% FRL); North Brunswick High (math 57% / reading 49%, grade C-, #281 of 535 statewide, top 53%, 1,450 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1803 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($293k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,611 (28.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.31% ✗
• Cap rate: 0.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -19.19%
• DSCR: 0.15
• GRM: 27.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $748,830
• List price: $321,900
• Delta: -57.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9143 Fallen Pear Ln NE	0.52mi	4/3.5	3,100 (-1%)	4mo	$927,000	$299	67
3834 Crab Catcher Loop NE	0.44mi	4/4.5	3,187 (+2%)	4mo	$670,000	$210	65
3586 Rivergate Way NE	0.16mi	4/3.5	2,682 (-14%)	0mo	$735,000	$274	65
3478 Belle Meade Way NE	0.15mi	4/3.5	3,510 (+12%)	6mo	$945,000	$269	64
3916 Flint Rock Rd NE	0.32mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,976 (-5%)	10mo	$865,000	$291	64
9395 Bar Harbour Way NE	0.20mi	4/3.5	3,568 (+14%)	1mo	$910,000	$255	62
9362 Fallen Pear Ln NE	0.40mi	4/3.5	3,311 (+6%)	7mo	$850,000	$257	62
3706 Friendly Orange Ct NE	0.42mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,279 (+5%)	6mo	$865,000	$264	60
3829 Bay Colony Rd NE	0.15mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,503 (+12%)	3mo	$865,000	$247	59
9614 Hidden Plum Rd NE	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,730 (-13%)	3mo	$675,000	$247	58
9173 Fallen Pear Ln NE	0.50mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,675 (-14%)	1mo	$785,000	$293	43
3774 River Park Way NE	0.61mi	4/3.5	2,712 (-13%)	5mo	$875,000	$323	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -57.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.62×
• Total profit: $-338,887
• Equity at exit: $111,653

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.79×
• Total profit: $-585,852
• Equity at exit: $64,745

Cash invested: $209,673 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 45 active · 15 under contract
• Months of supply: 15.9 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $423,800 ($149/sqft)
• Median days on market: 119 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +61.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 28451

• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1803
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,306 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,927
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$936 /mo · $11,232/yr
• Insurance: −$312
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $-3,353

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,551

Max offer price $263,621

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,836	-5% $-3,094	+0% $-3,353	+5% $-3,612	+10% $-3,871
Rent	-10% $-3,535	-5% $-3,444	+0% $-3,353	+5% $-3,262	+10% $-3,171
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,976	-0.5pp $-3,163	base $-3,353	+0.5pp $-3,547	+1.0pp $-3,745

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $187,208
• Closing costs: $22,465
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 3655 Rivergate Way NE, Leland, NC 28451Listing status: ActiveLast modified: 2026-05-28
• Financial info: List price $305,100

Exterior

• Home design: New construction (Plan)Riley plan
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,900 square feet

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan name: Riley

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $321,900 Active 119 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $321,900 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $321,900 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $321,900 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $321,900 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $321,900 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $321,900 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $321,900 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $321,900 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $321,900 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $321,900 Active 108 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $321,900 Active 107 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $321,900 Active 106 DOM
14. 2026-09-06
    days on market $321,900 Active 100 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $321,900 Active 99 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $321,900 Active 98 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $321,900 Active 95 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $321,900 Active 94 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $321,900 Active 93 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $321,900 Active 92 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $321,900 Active 91 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $321,900 Active 89 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $321,900 Active 88 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $321,900 Active 87 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $321,900 Active 86 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $321,900 Active 85 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $321,900 Active 84 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $321,900 Active 83 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $321,900 Active 82 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $321,900 Active 81 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $321,900 Active 80 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $321,900 Active 79 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $321,900 Active 78 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $321,900 Active 77 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $321,900 Active 76 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $321,900 Active 75 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $321,900 Active 74 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $321,900 Active 73 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $321,900 Active 72 DOM
40. 2026-08-07
    days on market $321,900 Active 71 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $321,900 Active 70 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $321,900 Active 69 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $321,900 Active 68 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $321,900 Active 67 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $321,900 Active 64 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $321,900 Active 62 DOM
47. 2026-07-27
    days on market $321,900 Active 60 DOM
48. 2026-07-25
    days on market $321,900 Active 58 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $321,900 Active 57 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $321,900 Active 56 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,673
• − Mortgage interest: −$41,946
• − Property taxes: −$11,232
• − Insurance: −$3,744
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,214
• − Management: −$2,214
• − Depreciation: −$21,784
• Taxable loss: −$55,461
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$13,311
• After-tax cash flow: $-26,927/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

The Riley Plan is a move-in-ready home with a good condition score, featuring a modern kitchen, well-maintained bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. Potential value-adding updates include painting and landscaping improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances (if needed) — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient appliances can increase resale value. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures (if needed) — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient fixtures can increase resale value. ↑
• Rental HVAC system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract tenants and reduce maintenance costs. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 42/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Lincoln Elementary F NC #682/1,410 Nat'l #19,191/41,679 Middle Leland Middle F NC #326/475 Nat'l #8,646/14,009 High North Brunswick High C- NC #281/535 Nat'l #4,893/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Leland

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #177
• US rank: #9158

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brunswick County · 152,111 people
• City population: 46,933
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• Population (ZIP): 46,933
• Household income: $81,481
• Rent vs Own: 18.0% rent · 82.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.99%
• Current HPI: 148.6217
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.24%
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 3655 Rivergate Way NE, Leland, NC 28451Listing status: ActiveLast modified: 2026-05-28
• Financial info: List price $305,100

Exterior

• Home design: New construction (Plan)Riley plan
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,900 square feet

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan name: Riley