4399 Aplicella Ct #75 · Lathrop, CA 95337

$224,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,284 sqft · Manufactured · 202 Days on market

Built 2022 Est $168k · 33% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to lakeside living!Step into this beautifully maintained 2022 model perfectly situated in a gated community with stunning lake views. Enjoy Peaceful mornings on your porch taking in a tranquil scenery right outside your door. This home has it all, low maintenance living, scenic surroundings and a secure well kept community. This one is a must see. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Gated community
• Lake views
• Lakeside living

Tags

• LAKESIDE LIVING
• GATED COMMUNITY
• LAKE VIEWS
• LOW MAINTENANCE LIVING
• SECURE COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located inside a gated community (directions reference gated entry)
• Financial info: Land lease: No
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking; Off-street parking; Covered parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220 volts available in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured home in a park; Double wide; Built in 2022
• Construction: Clayton manufactured home; Wood skirting
• Exterior features: River access; Secluded setting; Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Island; Stone countertops; Ice maker; Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Porch; Living room with flexible layout
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry area (220V in laundry)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $224k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $864 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $224k).
• Recommended offer: $197k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 3.1% in Lathrop — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#842 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, schools F, commute F.
• Manteca Unified (suburban): math 15% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #297 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 387 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($117k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 202 days — a 12% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 202 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.53%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $168,204
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4399 Aplicella Ct #49	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,283 (-0%)	5mo	$185,000	$144	94
4399 Aplicella #59	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+12%)	2mo	$188,000	$131	76
4399 Aplicella Ct #29	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+12%)	7mo	$74,000	$51	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $12,230
• Equity at exit: $33,399

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $55,958
• Equity at exit: $19,367

Cash invested: $62,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95337

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 387
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,053 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,175
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$280 /mo · $3,360/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$641
• Net cashflow: $864

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,960

Max offer price $224,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,019	-5% $942	+0% $864	+5% $787	+10% $709
Rent	-10% $623	-5% $744	+0% $864	+5% $985	+10% $1,105
Rate	-1.0pp $977	-0.5pp $921	base $864	+0.5pp $806	+1.0pp $747

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,000
• Closing costs: $6,720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3275 Hayduke St Manteca, CA	3.0	2.5	1625	$2,950	$1.82	4d	1	1.16mi
1781 Haines Ave Manteca, CA	3.0	2.0	1733	$2,400	$1.38	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $224,000 Active 202 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $224,000 Active 201 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $224,000 Active 200 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $224,000 Active 199 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $224,000 Active 197 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $224,000 Active 196 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $224,000 Active 194 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $224,000 Active 193 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,000 Active 192 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,000 Active 191 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $229,000 Active 188 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,000 Active 187 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,000 Active 186 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,000 Active 185 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,000 Active 184 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 25 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,640
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,547
• − Property taxes: −$3,360
• − Insurance: −$1,120
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,931
• − Management: −$2,931
• − Depreciation: −$6,516
• Taxable income: $7,234
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,736
• After-tax cash flow: $8,633/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manteca Unified
• NCES district ID: 0623610
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,426
• Composite: 28.5/100
• National rank: #6737
• State rank: #297 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lathrop

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #842
• US rank: #23278

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 35,395
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 48,731
• Household income: $117,137
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 880.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% White 29% Two or more races 23% Asian 21% Black 4% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Russian 4% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 11% Tagalog/Filipino 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -481.88%
• Current HPI: 273.9008
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.82%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B