42628 Mystery Ln · Magnolia, TX 77354

$323,493

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,739 sqft · SingleFamily · 7 Days on market

Built 2026 6,192 sqft lot Est $296k · 9% over $75/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• ARV discount +3.3/15.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks

The Leona floor plan is a charming one-story design that perfectly combines space and convenience. Boasting 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this home provides a versatile layout tailored to meet the needs of families or those who love hosting guests. The open design of the living areas fosters connection, with the kitchen seamlessly flowing into the dining space and family room-ideal for both everyday life and special gatherings. The primary suite offers a peaceful retreat, complete with a private bathroom and a generously sized walk-in closet. The additional three bedrooms are thoughtfully positioned, offering flexibility for children, visitors, or even a home office. The two-car garage ensure

Key facts

• 6,192 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 42628 Mystery Ln, Magnolia TX 77354; Listing provided by Zillow; information deemed reliable but not guaranteed
• Financial info: List price $323,493

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family property; Leona plan
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,739

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (Leona plan); Active listing

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $323k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-600 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (26.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (33.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (33.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $216,566 (33.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.95%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $295,630
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
42563 Rustico Rd	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,739 (0%)	1mo	$289,990	$167	95
42676 Mystery Ln	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,739 (0%)	3mo	$299,990	$173	94
42559 Rustico Rd	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,644 (-6%)	3mo	$279,990	$170	79
42710 Loma Vista Ct	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,741 (+0%)	0mo	$314,990	$181	77
42668 Mystery Ln	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,942 (+12%)	3mo	$319,990	$165	75
42548 Edmund Rucker Ln	0.08mi	4/3.0	1,942 (+12%)	1mo	$314,900	$162	72
1338 Lakeside Creek Rd	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,831 (+5%)	3mo	$280,000	$153	70
42591 Rustico Rd	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,950 (+12%)	2mo	$349,900	$179	69
42635 Mystery Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,984 (+14%)	4mo	$336,900	$170	67
42548 Rustico Rd	0.08mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,939 (+12%)	4mo	$323,990	$167	66
42595 Rustico Rd	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,984 (+14%)	2mo	$371,900	$187	66
42715 Loma Vista Ct	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,866 (+7%)	0mo	$328,990	$176	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $132,378
• Equity at exit: $291,428

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.52×
• Total profit: $409,701
• Equity at exit: $628,476

Cash invested: $90,578 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,166 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,696
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$404 /mo · $4,852/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $-600

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,925

Max offer price $236,713

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,873
• Closing costs: $9,705
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $323,493 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $323,493 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $323,493 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $323,493 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on marketlisting id $323,493 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $323,493 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $323,493 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $323,493 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $323,493 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $323,493 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $323,493 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $323,493 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,988
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,121
• − Property taxes: −$4,852
• − Insurance: −$1,617
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,079
• − Management: −$2,079
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$9,411
• Taxable loss: −$13,071
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,137
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,059/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B