31 Tranquility Trails Way Plan · Willis, TX 77318

$144,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,332 sqft · Manufactured · 199 Days on market

Good condition $109/sqft · 21% above area Est $120k · 21% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rockrose Ranch at Lake Conroe is an active community where you can truly have it all. This spacious 1332 SQ. FT 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home provides the perfect balance of indoor and outdoor living. The open concept living area opens onto a covered front porch, creating an ideal space for entertaining and relaxing. Come tour today! * * Photos are for representation purposes only. Actual property may differ in featured amenities, finishes, and in appearance from the model photos shown. Buy or lease today!

Key facts

• Listed 199 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $412 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Parmley El (math 39% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 625 students, 72% FRL); Lynn Lucas Middle (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 971 students, 74% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1199 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 199 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $127,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 199 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.20%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $120,000
• List price: $144,900
• Delta: 20.75%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11614 Vistawood St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-9%)	3mo	$139,900	$115	55
9871 Arbor Oak	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-9%)	2mo	$70,000	$58	53
8786 Scarlet Oak	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-9%)	1mo	$62,900	$52	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-2,426
• Equity at exit: $21,605

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $11,558
• Equity at exit: $12,528

Cash invested: $40,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1199
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,790 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$181 /mo · $2,174/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $412

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,268

Max offer price $144,900

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $513	-5% $463	+0% $412	+5% $362	+10% $312
Rent	-10% $271	-5% $342	+0% $412	+5% $483	+10% $554
Rate	-1.0pp $485	-0.5pp $449	base $412	+0.5pp $375	+1.0pp $337

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,225
• Closing costs: $4,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11561 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,530	$1.53	45d	1	0.49mi
11559 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,490	$1.49	45d	1	0.49mi
11555 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,495	$1.50	45d	1	0.50mi
9745 Black Gum Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	45d	1	0.54mi
9743 Black Gum Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	4d	1	0.55mi
14190 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	5d	1	1.22mi
14210 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	4.0	2.0	1603	$1,850	$1.15	5d	1	1.25mi
14214 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	45d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $144,900 Active 199 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $144,900 Active 196 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $144,900 Active 195 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $144,900 Active 194 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $144,900 Active 193 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $144,900 Active 191 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $144,900 Active 187 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $144,900 Active 186 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $144,900 Active 185 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $144,900 Active 182 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $144,900 Active 181 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $144,900 Active 180 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $144,900 Active 179 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $144,900 Active 178 DOM
15. 2025-12-04
    listed $144,900 Active 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Rockrose Ranch at Lake Conroe is an active community where you can truly have it all. This spacious 1332 SQ. FT 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home provides the perfect balance of indoor and outdoor living. The open concept living area opens onto a covered front porch, creating an ideal space for entertaining and relaxing. Come tour today! * * Photos are for representation purposes only. Actual property may differ in featured amenities, finishes, and in appearance from the model photos shown. Buy or lease today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,477
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,117
• − Property taxes: −$2,174
• − Insurance: −$724
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,718
• − Management: −$1,718
• − Depreciation: −$4,215
• Taxable income: $2,810
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$674
• After-tax cash flow: $4,276/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This 1332 sq ft 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in Rockrose Ranch at Lake Conroe is in excellent condition with modern finishes and ample living space. It's move-in ready and offers a great balance of indoor and outdoor living.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Add a smart home system — Modern technology can increase the home's appeal and market value.
• Both Install smart locks — Smart locks can improve security and convenience for both buyers and tenants.
• Both Add a smart thermostat — Smart thermostats can save energy and appeal to environmentally conscious buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — Modern technology can increase the home's appeal and market value. ↑
• Both Install smart locks — Smart locks can improve security and convenience for both buyers and tenants. ↑
• Both Add a smart thermostat — Smart thermostats can save energy and appeal to environmentally conscious buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-04 Listed $144,900 Zillow