2927 Tangerine Ct · Leesburg, FL 34748

$139,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 195 Days on market

Built 1988 1,272 sqft lot Est $187k · 25% under $265/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a new owner! This Townhouse has two large bedrooms and baths upstairs each with their own balcony overlooking a Lake (pond) great view! Down stairs has your kitchen, dining and living room and ½ bath with wash & dryer. Private fence in front and around large lanai, 2 parking spaces and all in a gated community. This town home has been freshly painted, new carpet, newer roof shake shingles (2011) flat roof repaired (2013) alarm system (never used by owner), new hot water heater (5 months ago) Air is original with every year maintenance, Home Warranty till Oct 2016 and Termite Bond by Association. The community is gated has large swimming pool and area, pavilion for picnicking under cover, clubhouse, library, and fitness center. Close to downtown, restaurants and of course shopping. Come and enjoy all this community has to offer.

Key facts

• View of pond
• Screened patio
• Reserved car parking

Tags

• WATER VIEWS
• VIEW OF POND
• SCREENED PATIO
• RESERVED CAR PARKING
• GATED COMMUNITY
• SWIMMING POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Deed restrictions in community; Pets allowed
• Financial info: Total monthly fees listed as approximately $265.42; Total annual fees listed as approximately $3,185; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Homeowners association managed by Sentry Management; Monthly HOA fee around $245; Association fee covers pool, grounds maintenance, management, private road, and trash; Association amenities include elevator(s), fitness center, gated entry, lobby key required, playground, pool, and recreation facilities; Association approval required and fees are required

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking; Guest parking; Reserved carport (per directions)
• Security: Gated community; Key card entry; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Townhouse; Residential property; Two levels; Faces east; Located in a gated community
• Construction: Stucco construction; Shake roof; Slab foundation; Building area ~1528 square feet
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Patio; Porch; Balcony; Sliding doors; Property has pond views; City limits; Landscaped; Paved

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room/dining room combo; Walk-in closets; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry (washer and dryer included); Inside utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $169 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.4% in Leesburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#751 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leesburg Elementary School (math 31% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,841 of 2,144 statewide, top 86%, 822 students, 71% FRL); Oak Park Middle School (math 32% / reading 36%, grade F, #426 of 571 statewide, top 75%, 575 students, 70% FRL); Leesburg High School (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #464 of 667 statewide, top 70%, 1,641 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 49% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lake average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 798 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 195 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $140k implies a 141% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 195 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.18%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $186,760
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1017 Willow Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+10%)	9mo	$205,000	$145	70
1105 Apple Ter	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+10%)	10mo	$185,000	$130	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-16,876
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-20,006
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34748

• Home prices YoY: -25.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 798
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,758 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$163 /mo · $1,953/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$265
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $169

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,544

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $248	-5% $209	+0% $169	+5% $129	+10% $90
Rent	-10% $30	-5% $100	+0% $169	+5% $238	+10% $308
Rate	-1.0pp $239	-0.5pp $205	base $169	+0.5pp $133	+1.0pp $96

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1004 Royal Oak Blvd Unit 1004 Leesburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1244	$1,550	$1.25	5d	1	0.07mi
2940 Peach St Leesburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1288	$1,750	$1.36	19d	1	0.10mi
2920 Pecan Ave Leesburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1288	$1,700	$1.32	25d	1	0.12mi
1125 Apple Ter Unit 1125 Leesburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,695	$1.17	0d	1	0.12mi
3019 Walnut Ct Leesburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1854	$1,799	$0.97	4d	1	0.14mi
3019 Walnut Ct Leesburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1854	$1,799	$0.97	0d	1	0.14mi
3029 Walnut Ct Leesburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1854	$1,799	$0.97	6d	1	0.14mi
3029 Walnut Ct Leesburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1854	$1,799	$0.97	4d	1	0.14mi
2602 Houston Pl Leesburg, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$1,895	$1.97	6d	1	0.52mi
513 Old Colony Rd Leesburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1198	$1,699	$1.42	6d	1	0.59mi
502 Old Colony Rd Leesburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,299	$0.89	25d	1	0.64mi
824 S Lone Oak Dr Unit A Leesburg, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,195	$1.33	0d	1	0.87mi
822 S Lone Oak Dr Unit B Leesburg, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,195	$1.33	25d	1	0.87mi
1321 Cambridge Dr Leesburg, FL	4.0	2.0	912	$1,800	$1.97	19d	1	1.27mi
1317 Cambridge Dr Leesburg, FL	3.0	1.5	1240	$1,600	$1.29	25d	1	1.30mi
210 N Lone Oak Dr Unit 1 Leesburg, FL	2.0	1.0	912	$1,250	$1.37	16d	1	1.30mi
1604 Woodlyn Dr Leesburg, FL	3.0	1.5	1088	$1,500	$1.38	25d	1	1.33mi
200 S Moss St Leesburg, FL	3.0	2.0	968	$1,500	$1.55	25d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $265 · $3,180/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgymsecurity

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,900 Active 195 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 192 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 191 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 190 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 189 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $139,900 Active 187 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $139,900 Pending 186 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $139,900 Active 184 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $139,900 Active 183 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 182 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 181 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 180 DOM
13. 2026-01-30
    price $139,900
14. 2025-12-02
    listed $159,000 Active
15. 2016-03-24
    soldstatus $58,000
16. 2016-03-18
    soldstatus $58,000 Sold 866-char remark

    Show marketing remark (866 chars)

    Looking for a new owner! This Townhouse has two large bedrooms and baths upstairs each with their own balcony overlooking a Lake (pond) great view! Down stairs has your kitchen, dining and living room and ½ bath with wash & dryer. Private fence in front and around large lanai, 2 parking spaces and all in a gated community. This town home has been freshly painted, new carpet, newer roof shake shingles (2011) flat roof repaired (2013) alarm system (never used by owner), new hot water heater (5 months ago) Air is original with every year maintenance, Home Warranty till Oct 2016 and Termite Bond by Association. The community is gated has large swimming pool and area, pavilion for picnicking under cover, clubhouse, library, and fitness center. Close to downtown, restaurants and of course shopping. Come and enjoy all this community has to offer.

17. 2016-02-09
    status Pending 866-char remark

    Show marketing remark (866 chars)

    Looking for a new owner! This Townhouse has two large bedrooms and baths upstairs each with their own balcony overlooking a Lake (pond) great view! Down stairs has your kitchen, dining and living room and ½ bath with wash & dryer. Private fence in front and around large lanai, 2 parking spaces and all in a gated community. This town home has been freshly painted, new carpet, newer roof shake shingles (2011) flat roof repaired (2013) alarm system (never used by owner), new hot water heater (5 months ago) Air is original with every year maintenance, Home Warranty till Oct 2016 and Termite Bond by Association. The community is gated has large swimming pool and area, pavilion for picnicking under cover, clubhouse, library, and fitness center. Close to downtown, restaurants and of course shopping. Come and enjoy all this community has to offer.

18. 2016-01-26
    listed $68,925 Active 866-char remark

    Show marketing remark (866 chars)

    Looking for a new owner! This Townhouse has two large bedrooms and baths upstairs each with their own balcony overlooking a Lake (pond) great view! Down stairs has your kitchen, dining and living room and ½ bath with wash & dryer. Private fence in front and around large lanai, 2 parking spaces and all in a gated community. This town home has been freshly painted, new carpet, newer roof shake shingles (2011) flat roof repaired (2013) alarm system (never used by owner), new hot water heater (5 months ago) Air is original with every year maintenance, Home Warranty till Oct 2016 and Termite Bond by Association. The community is gated has large swimming pool and area, pavilion for picnicking under cover, clubhouse, library, and fitness center. Close to downtown, restaurants and of course shopping. Come and enjoy all this community has to offer.

19. 2004-10-06
    soldstatus $80,000
20. 2004-10-04
    soldstatus $80,000 167-char remark

    Show marketing remark (167 chars)

    ROYAL OAK ESTATES 2 BEDROOM, 2.5 BATH PONDVIEW TOWNHOME! New Berber Carpet in 2003, Screened Porch, New Roof in 2003, Ceramic Tile, and all the amenities are included.

21. 2004-07-21
    listed $82,000 167-char remark

    Show marketing remark (167 chars)

    ROYAL OAK ESTATES 2 BEDROOM, 2.5 BATH PONDVIEW TOWNHOME! New Berber Carpet in 2003, Screened Porch, New Roof in 2003, Ceramic Tile, and all the amenities are included.

22. 2003-02-25
    soldstatus $69,000
23. 2000-11-01
    soldstatus $60,000
24. 1988-02-01
    soldstatus $58,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,953 · $163/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,953 · $163/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,094
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$1,953
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,688
• − Management: −$1,688
• − HOA: −$3,180
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$20
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5
• After-tax cash flow: $2,033/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Leesburg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #751
• US rank: #16429

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leesburg, FL
• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 70,232
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 48,095
• Household income: $58,192
• Rent vs Own: 24.9% rent · 75.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1745.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.97%
• Current HPI: 262.1766
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+137.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-02 Listed $159,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-24 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
• 2016-03-18 Sold (MLS) $58,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-02-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-01-26 Listed $68,925 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-10-06 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2004-10-04 Sold (MLS) $80,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-07-21 Listed $82,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-02-25 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records
• 2000-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 1988-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $58,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+16.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,953 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.