20 Norwick Dr · Forked River, NJ 08731

$300,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,224 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1985 $245/sqft · 21% below area Est $385k · 22% under $70/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this great opportunity in the desirable Pheasant Run adult community! This Cambridge model is ideally situated on a corner lot and offers comfortable, easy living. Enjoy a bright enclosed porch filled with natural light, perfect for relaxing. The home features a spacious living room, formal dining area, and an eat-in kitchen. There are 2 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a 1-car garage. Additional highlights include a newer hot water heater, pull-down attic access for extra storage, and all appliances included. Residents of Pheasant Run enjoy a beautiful clubhouse with a pool, along with affordable HOA fees. Come see all this home and community have to offer. You'll be glad you did!

Key facts

• Formal dining area
• Enclosed porch
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• ENCLOSED PORCH
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• FORMAL DINING AREA
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• NEWER HOT WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $231 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $298k (0.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $291k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.2% in Forked River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#464 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lacey Township School District (suburban): math 22% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #299 of 472 in NJ (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 190 active listings in the ZIP; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $300k implies a 216% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $291,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.31%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $384,545
• List price: $300,000
• Delta: -21.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20 Norwick Dr	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+1%)	0mo	$280,000	$227	99
40 Canterbury Dr	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,224 (0%)	10mo	$361,800	$296	79
11 Portsmouth Dr	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,127 (-8%)	5mo	$300,000	$266	70
2028 Brookdale Dr	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,405 (+15%)	8mo	$345,000	$246	66
69 Canterbury Dr	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,405 (+15%)	2mo	$385,000	$274	63
5 Portsmouth	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,404 (+15%)	8mo	$335,000	$239	59
1800 Ravine Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,126 (-8%)	4mo	$409,000	$363	58
1991 Glen Oak Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,308 (+7%)	5mo	$495,000	$378	57
1515 Clair Rd	0.58mi	2/1.5	1,358 (+11%)	6mo	$386,000	$284	47
1506 Beverly Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (-6%)	10mo	$395,000	$343	46
38 Sheffield Dr	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,405 (+15%)	3mo	$435,000	$310	41
2253 Crestwood Pl	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,394 (+14%)	1mo	$510,000	$366	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-33,798
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-10,150
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08731

• Active inventory: 190
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,977 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$352 /mo · $4,223/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$70
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$625
• Net cashflow: $231

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,684

Max offer price $300,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $70 · $840/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 704-char remark

   Show marketing remark (704 chars)

   Welcome to this great opportunity in the desirable Pheasant Run adult community! This Cambridge model is ideally situated on a corner lot and offers comfortable, easy living. Enjoy a bright enclosed porch filled with natural light, perfect for relaxing. The home features a spacious living room, formal dining area, and an eat-in kitchen. There are 2 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a 1-car garage. Additional highlights include a newer hot water heater, pull-down attic access for extra storage, and all appliances included. Residents of Pheasant Run enjoy a beautiful clubhouse with a pool, along with affordable HOA fees. Come see all this home and community have to offer. You'll be glad you did!

2. 2026-04-09
   listed $300,000 Active 704-char remark

   Show marketing remark (704 chars)

   Welcome to this great opportunity in the desirable Pheasant Run adult community! This Cambridge model is ideally situated on a corner lot and offers comfortable, easy living. Enjoy a bright enclosed porch filled with natural light, perfect for relaxing. The home features a spacious living room, formal dining area, and an eat-in kitchen. There are 2 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a 1-car garage. Additional highlights include a newer hot water heater, pull-down attic access for extra storage, and all appliances included. Residents of Pheasant Run enjoy a beautiful clubhouse with a pool, along with affordable HOA fees. Come see all this home and community have to offer. You'll be glad you did!

3. 2025-11-21
   historical
4. 2025-05-22
   listed $329,000 Active
5. 2024-12-21
   historical
6. 2024-08-21
   price $330,000
7. 2024-07-27
   price $340,000
8. 2024-07-14
   listed $350,000 Active
9. 2012-10-17
   soldstatus $95,000
10. 2012-10-17
    soldstatus $95,000
11. 2012-04-26
    listed $95,000
12. 2012-04-26
    listed $95,000
13. 2010-11-03
    listed $109,900
14. 1985-09-01
    soldstatus $66,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,223 · $352/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,846 · $487/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,624/yr (+$135/mo · 38.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,720
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$4,223
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,858
• − Management: −$2,858
• − HOA: −$840
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$2,090
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$502
• After-tax cash flow: $3,279/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lacey Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3408100
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $73,331
• Composite: 30.42/100
• National rank: #6242
• State rank: #299 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Forked River

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #464
• US rank: #17753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 21,136

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Slovak 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -328.91%
• Current HPI: 352.355
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+348.4% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $300,000 MOMLS
• 2025-11-21 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-22 Listed $329,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-12-21 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-08-21 Price Changed $330,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-07-27 Price Changed $340,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-07-14 Listed $350,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-10-17 Sold (MLS) $95,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-10-17 Sold (MLS) $95,000 MOMLS
• 2012-04-26 Listed $95,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-04-26 Listed $95,000 MOMLS
• 2010-11-03 Listed $109,900 MOMLS
• 1985-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $66,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,223 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.