8317 Birdsong Ct · Cleburne, TX 76058

$185,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1996

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.2/30.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sold 'as is' all room sizes approximate

Key facts

• 1.12-acre tract
• Existing utilities
• New construction

Tags

• 1.12-ACRE TRACT
• PAVED DRIVEWAY
• AUTOMATIC GATE
• TWO-CAR CARPORT
• EXISTING UTILITIES
• NEW CONSTRUCTION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $369 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $182k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.6% in Cleburne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#460 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Godley ISD (rural): math 34% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #466 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 420 active listings in the ZIP; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,225 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.56%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-6,392
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $24,973
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76058

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Active inventory: 420
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,144 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$277 /mo · $3,325/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $369

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,676

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $185,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $185,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-27
    listed $185,000 Active
16. 2014-02-24
    soldstatus
17. 2006-02-28
    soldstatus
18. 2006-02-14
    soldstatus 39-char remark

    Show marketing remark (39 chars)

    Sold 'as is' all room sizes approximate

19. 2006-02-06
    historical 39-char remark

    Show marketing remark (39 chars)

    Sold 'as is' all room sizes approximate

20. 2006-01-25
    listed $32,000 39-char remark

    Show marketing remark (39 chars)

    Sold 'as is' all room sizes approximate

21. 2000-02-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,325 · $277/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,386 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: +$61/yr (+$5/mo · 1.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,727
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$3,325
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,058
• − Management: −$2,058
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $1,616
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$388
• After-tax cash flow: $4,045/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Godley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820960
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $59,332
• Composite: 32.06/100
• National rank: #5820
• State rank: #466 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cleburne

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #460
• US rank: #9292

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 29,538
• Population (ZIP): 21,531

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.22%
• Current HPI: 265.6513
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+478.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $185,000 FSBO.com
• 2014-02-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-02-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-02-14 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2006-02-06 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2006-01-25 Listed $32,000 NTREIS
• 2000-02-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,325 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.