448 Wolf Crest Blvd · Seguin, TX 78155

$178,499

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · SingleFamily · 18 Days on market

Built 2026 Poor condition Est $193k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new home is conveniently laid out on a single floor for maximum comfort and convenience. At its heart stands an open-concept layout connecting a spacious family room, a multi-functional kitchen and lovely dining area. The owner's suite is situated in a private corner and comes complete with an adjoining bathroom, while the two secondary bedrooms are located near the foyer.

Key facts

• Adjoining bathroom
• Owner's suite
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• MULTI-FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• ADJOINING BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Virtual tour available
• Financial info: List price $187,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Beckman plan; New construction (spec)
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,260; Built 2026 (new construction)
• Exterior features: Located at 448 Wolf Crest Blvd, Seguin, TX 78155; Spec new construction (Beckman plan)

Interior

• Kitchen: Standard kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $178k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $188 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $178k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.7% in Seguin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#592 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Seguin ISD (town): math 26% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #663 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1342 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $175,821 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.51%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $192,780
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
516 Wolf Crest Blvd	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,260 (0%)	1mo	$192,999	$153	94
507 Wolf Crest Blvd	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,260 (0%)	3mo	$194,999	$155	93
732 Summit Ter	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,260 (0%)	8mo	$184,999	$147	90
540 Wolf Crest Blvd	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,260 (0%)	2mo	$189,999	$151	90
727 Summit Ter	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,260 (0%)	9mo	$192,999	$153	89
706 Wolf Crest Blvd	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,260 (0%)	5mo	$182,999	$145	86
811 Summit Terraces	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,260 (0%)	11mo	$186,999	$148	85
830 Summit Terraces	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,260 (0%)	10mo	$182,099	$145	85
763 Armadillo	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,262 (+0%)	1mo	$229,900	$182	72
816 El Camino Ct	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,413 (+12%)	12mo	$195,999	$139	64
712 Monarch	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,262 (+0%)	8mo	$235,000	$186	59
813 Wild Olive Way	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+12%)	11mo	$284,950	$202	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-18,666
• Equity at exit: $26,615

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-7,680
• Equity at exit: $15,433

Cash invested: $49,980 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78155

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1342
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,799 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$936
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$223 /mo · $2,677/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $188

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,561

Max offer price $178,499

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,625
• Closing costs: $5,355
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
805 Riviera Ct Seguin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$1,795	$0.96	24d	1	0.22mi
805 Riviera Ct Seguin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$1,795	$0.96	11d	1	0.22mi
401 Alta Vista Ter Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,995	$1.20	24d	1	0.24mi
829 Margay Loop Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1575	$1,775	$1.13	43d	1	0.48mi
829 Margay Loop Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1575	$1,775	$1.13	17d	1	0.48mi
1060 Pronghorn Trl Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$1,650	$1.17	43d	1	0.58mi
771 Monarch Dr Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1612	$1,740	$1.08	2d	1	0.61mi
723 Armadillo Dr Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1781	$1,900	$1.07	1d	1	0.64mi
728 Armadillo Dr Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1612	$1,745	$1.08	1d	1	0.65mi
800 Nodding Nixie Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1781	$1,745	$0.98	43d	1	0.65mi
912 Cinnamon Teal Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1796	$1,945	$1.08	16d	1	0.66mi
812 Indigo Way Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1574	$1,900	$1.21	1d	1	0.75mi
817 Pronghorn Trl Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1575	$1,695	$1.08	19d	1	0.77mi
1051 Country Club Dr #28 Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1032	$1,300	$1.26	3d	1	0.86mi
1048 Country Club Dr Seguin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	829	$1,150	$1.39	1d	5	0.87mi
1051 Country Club Dr Seguin, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	990	$1,400	$1.41	43d	3	0.88mi
541 Chaco Loop Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1263	$1,800	$1.43	1d	1	0.90mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $178,499 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $178,499 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $178,499 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $178,499 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $178,499 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $178,499 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   price $178,499 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $182,499 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $181,999 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $181,999 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $181,999 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    remarks 380-char remark
13. 2026-06-01
    listed $187,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,588
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,999
• − Property taxes: −$2,677
• − Insurance: −$892
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,727
• − Management: −$1,727
• − Depreciation: −$5,193
• Taxable loss: −$627
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$150
• After-tax cash flow: $2,403/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This home requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including a new roof, siding repair and painting, and landscaping. Significant updates are needed to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Significant damage and potential leaks.
• Major siding — Peeling paint and possible rot.
• Major landscaping — Overgrown and unkempt, needs trimming and maintenance.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale roof repair — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and value.
• Resale siding repair and painting — New siding and paint would enhance the home's curb appeal and value.
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained landscape would improve both resale and rental value.
• Resale interior painting and updates — Fresh paint and updates inside would make the home more attractive to potential buyers.
• Both HVAC and mechanicals — Upgrading HVAC and mechanicals would improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Significant damage and potential leaks.	Major	$15,000–50,000
siding · Peeling paint and possible rot.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Overgrown and unkempt, needs trimming and maintenance.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale roof repair — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Resale siding repair and painting — New siding and paint would enhance the home's curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained landscape would improve both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale interior painting and updates — Fresh paint and updates inside would make the home more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Both HVAC and mechanicals — Upgrading HVAC and mechanicals would improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seguin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839690
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,210
• Composite: 24.17/100
• National rank: #7738
• State rank: #663 of 826 in TX

Livability — Seguin

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #592
• US rank: #11298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Seguin, TX
• County: Guadalupe County · 147,291 people
• City population: 55,600
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,600
• Household income: $71,039
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1053.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.43%
• Current HPI: 160.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B