1837 Lincoln Ave · Holbrook, NY 11741

$549,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,395 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1910 0.55 ac lot Est $624k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Updated Three-bedroom Ranch on over a half-acre of property. Beautiful kitchen with granite counters, stainless steel appliance, Hi Hats and lvp flooring! Large dining area off kitchen, Living room with hi hats, Three bedrooms and Full bath with tub. Full, partially finished basement, laundry area, utilities and plenty of storage. Covered screened back porch and deck with new pvc railing. Oil baseboard heating, Riello burner March 2025, new roof (2026), Large, flat, fenced yard, in ground sprinklers. Two car detached garage (as is), fully fenced with pvc fencing.

Key facts

• In ground sprinklers
• Lvp flooring
• Granite counters

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCE
• LVP FLOORING
• COVERED SCREENED BACK PORCH
• NEW PVC RAILING
• IN GROUND SPRINKLERS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Driveway parking; Total parking for 6 vehicles; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected (PSEG); Water connected; Cesspool sewer; Public trash collection
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Back yard; Front yard; Level lot; Wood fencing enclosing the back yard; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite counters; Electric range; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Includes a bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil-fired heating with baseboard units; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Granite counters; Washer/dryer hookup; Porch with screened area; Dining area
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry located in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $549k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-488 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $463k (15.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $413k (24.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $413k (24.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.5% in Holbrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#658 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Sachem Central School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #86 of 590 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Hiawatha School (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #842 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 603 students, 36% FRL); Seneca Middle School (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B+, #136 of 729 statewide, top 20%, 973 students, 22% FRL); Sachem High School North (math 96% / reading 95%, grade A+, #76 of 1,100 statewide, top 7%, 1,923 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.3%/yr); 97 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($144k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($541k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $290k; list at $549k implies a 89% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $412,684 (24.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.81%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $623,565
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
170 Officials Ave	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+0%)	11mo	$600,000	$429	76
1568 Carl Ave	0.40mi	3/1.5	1,367 (-2%)	13mo	$611,000	$447	65
126 Schmidt Ave	0.21mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,400 (+0%)	24mo	$512,500	$366	65
191 Philip St	0.44mi	3/1.5	1,311 (-6%)	7mo	$635,000	$484	62
297 Clarice Blvd	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,298 (-7%)	5mo	$575,000	$443	62
107 Avenue E	0.38mi	3/1.5	1,271 (-9%)	11mo	$620,000	$488	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-101,375
• Equity at exit: $81,858

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-44,612
• Equity at exit: $47,467

Cash invested: $153,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11741

• Rents YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,127 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,879
• Tax from tax record: −$640 /mo · $7,684/yr
• Insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$867
• Net cashflow: $-488

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,744

Max offer price $462,811

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-177	-5% $-333	+0% $-488	+5% $-643	+10% $-799
Rent	-10% $-814	-5% $-651	+0% $-488	+5% $-325	+10% $-162
Rate	-1.0pp $-211	-0.5pp $-348	base $-488	+0.5pp $-630	+1.0pp $-775

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,250
• Closing costs: $16,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1000 Mill Rd Lake Ronkonkoma, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	843	$4,220	$5.01	0d	14	1.00mi
2 Hawkins Ave Lake Ronkonkoma, NY	3.0	1.0–2.0	959	$5,009	$5.22	0d	130	1.31mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $549,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $549,000 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $549,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $549,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $549,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $549,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $549,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $549,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-05-20
   listed $549,000 Active
10. 2017-07-18
    soldstatus $290,000
11. 2000-01-11
    soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,684 · $640/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,481 · $707/mo
• Expected delta: +$797/yr (+$66/mo · 10.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,522
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,753
• − Property taxes: −$7,684
• − Insurance: −$2,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,962
• − Management: −$3,962
• − Depreciation: −$15,971
• Taxable loss: −$15,554
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,733
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,122/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sachem Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3625350
• Math proficiency: 69% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $92,968
• Composite: 65.53/100
• National rank: #472
• State rank: #86 of 590 in NY

Livability — Holbrook

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #658
• US rank: #12283

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holbrook, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 26,667
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 26,667
• Household income: $144,346
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 416.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 6% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -682.71%
• Current HPI: 328.9231
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.30%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+898.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $549,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-07-18 Sold (Public Records) $290,000 Public Records
• 2000-01-11 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,684 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.