51 Helena Ln · New Kingstown, PA 17015

$98,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · Manufactured public records · 73 Days on market

Built 2012 $84/sqft · 45% above area Est $68k · 45% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautifully maintained, low-maintenance single-level home has been thoughtfully upgraded and is truly better than new. The interior features a high-end kitchen complete with granite countertops and top-of-the-line appliances, along with durable vinyl plank flooring that extends throughout most of the home. Recent improvements include a new roof and gutter system, along with numerous quality upgrades that add both style and functionality throughout. The spacious primary bedroom offers double closets and a private full bathroom for added comfort. The laundry room is equipped with commercial-grade Maytag washer and dryer units, providing convenience and reliability. Outside, the property boasts a well-manicured, easy-to-maintain lot with a raised garden bed—perfect for gardening enthusiasts. Enjoy outdoor living with generous front and side decks, plus a patio ideal for relaxing or entertaining. A storage shed adds valuable extra space for tools and equipment.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 2012
• Listed 72 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $98k).
• Recommended offer: $93k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.1% vs local median 2.3% in New Kingstown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,606 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Cumberland Valley SD (suburban): math 54% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #52 of 539 in PA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $681 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $98k implies a 147% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,590 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.91%
• DSCR: 3.04
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $68,000
• List price: $98,500
• Delta: 44.85%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $51,252
• Equity at exit: $14,687

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.76×
• Total profit: $131,210
• Equity at exit: $8,516

Cash invested: $27,580 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17015

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,155 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$517
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,078/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $1,055

Break-even live

Break-even rent $820

Max offer price $98,500

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,111	-5% $1,083	+0% $1,055	+5% $1,027	+10% $999
Rent	-10% $885	-5% $970	+0% $1,055	+5% $1,140	+10% $1,225
Rate	-1.0pp $1,105	-0.5pp $1,080	base $1,055	+0.5pp $1,030	+1.0pp $1,004

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,625
• Closing costs: $2,955
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $98,500 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $98,500 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $98,500 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $98,500 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $98,500 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $98,500 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $98,500 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $98,500 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $98,500 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $98,500 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $98,500 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $98,500 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $98,500 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $98,500 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $98,500 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $98,500 Active 52 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $98,500 Active 51 DOM
18. 2026-04-28
    price $98,500 982-char remark

    Show marketing remark (982 chars)

    This beautifully maintained, low-maintenance single-level home has been thoughtfully upgraded and is truly better than new. The interior features a high-end kitchen complete with granite countertops and top-of-the-line appliances, along with durable vinyl plank flooring that extends throughout most of the home. Recent improvements include a new roof and gutter system, along with numerous quality upgrades that add both style and functionality throughout. The spacious primary bedroom offers double closets and a private full bathroom for added comfort. The laundry room is equipped with commercial-grade Maytag washer and dryer units, providing convenience and reliability. Outside, the property boasts a well-manicured, easy-to-maintain lot with a raised garden bed—perfect for gardening enthusiasts. Enjoy outdoor living with generous front and side decks, plus a patio ideal for relaxing or entertaining. A storage shed adds valuable extra space for tools and equipment.

19. 2026-04-10
    listed $110,000 Active 982-char remark

    Show marketing remark (982 chars)

    This beautifully maintained, low-maintenance single-level home has been thoughtfully upgraded and is truly better than new. The interior features a high-end kitchen complete with granite countertops and top-of-the-line appliances, along with durable vinyl plank flooring that extends throughout most of the home. Recent improvements include a new roof and gutter system, along with numerous quality upgrades that add both style and functionality throughout. The spacious primary bedroom offers double closets and a private full bathroom for added comfort. The laundry room is equipped with commercial-grade Maytag washer and dryer units, providing convenience and reliability. Outside, the property boasts a well-manicured, easy-to-maintain lot with a raised garden bed—perfect for gardening enthusiasts. Enjoy outdoor living with generous front and side decks, plus a patio ideal for relaxing or entertaining. A storage shed adds valuable extra space for tools and equipment.

20. 2026-04-08
    historical $110,000 982-char remark

    Show marketing remark (982 chars)

    This beautifully maintained, low-maintenance single-level home has been thoughtfully upgraded and is truly better than new. The interior features a high-end kitchen complete with granite countertops and top-of-the-line appliances, along with durable vinyl plank flooring that extends throughout most of the home. Recent improvements include a new roof and gutter system, along with numerous quality upgrades that add both style and functionality throughout. The spacious primary bedroom offers double closets and a private full bathroom for added comfort. The laundry room is equipped with commercial-grade Maytag washer and dryer units, providing convenience and reliability. Outside, the property boasts a well-manicured, easy-to-maintain lot with a raised garden bed—perfect for gardening enthusiasts. Enjoy outdoor living with generous front and side decks, plus a patio ideal for relaxing or entertaining. A storage shed adds valuable extra space for tools and equipment.

21. 2020-07-15
    soldstatus $39,900 Closed
22. 2020-06-05
    status Pending
23. 2020-06-03
    listed $39,900 Active
24. 2018-07-18
    soldstatus $33,000
25. 2018-07-05
    historical
26. 2018-05-11
    listed $42,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,078 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,317 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: +$239/yr (+$20/mo · 22.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,862
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,518
• − Property taxes: −$1,078
• − Insurance: −$492
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,069
• − Management: −$2,069
• − Depreciation: −$2,865
• Taxable income: $11,770
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,825
• After-tax cash flow: $9,837/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207110
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $78,135
• Composite: 55.77/100
• National rank: #1218
• State rank: #52 of 539 in PA

Livability — New Kingstown

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1606
• US rank: #21798

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cumberland County · 257,673 people
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 24,385
• Household income: $86,981
• Rent vs Own: 17.9% rent · 82.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,950 people
• By 2030: 278,105 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 296,552 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 312,937 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 349,233 · +30.3%
• By 2100: 361,875 · +35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.6% · R 54.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+18.6 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.66%
• Current HPI: 265.9175
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+134.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $98,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $110,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-08 Coming Soon $110,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-07-15 Sold (MLS) $39,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-06-05 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-06-03 Listed $39,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-07-18 Sold (MLS) $33,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-07-05 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-05-11 Listed $42,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,078 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.