4670 Lott Rd · Semmes, AL 36613

$160,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,914 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1958 1.95 ac lot Est $186k · 14% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.4/30.0
• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Come check out this beautiful 1.95-acre lot with a 1914 sq. ft home on Lott Rd! Set back off the street, the concrete driveway winds between trees back to the home. This three-bedroom has much potential with some TLC. Kitchen is in good shape and there is a screened in back porch overlooking the back of the property, which backs up to woods. Lots of space inside with a Den and a front living room along with a side TV room as well next to the kitchen area. In the back is a long concrete driveway to a detached garage with a shed backed up behind that. All information is deemed accurate, but should be verified during due diligence. Sold AS IS with no repairs. Contact your favorite Realtor for

Key facts

• 1.95 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1958

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 1-car garage (total 1 parking space)
• Utilities: Electricity available (110V and 220V); Public sewer; Water available
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Built in 1958; Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Wood frame windows
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Property has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Range hood; Breakfast bar; Breakfast room; White cabinets
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Brick fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $324 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 5.3% in Semmes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#311 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Indian Springs Elementary School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #467 of 627 statewide, top 76%, 368 students, 75% FRL); Semmes Middle School (math 8% / reading 35%, grade F, #185 of 257 statewide, top 73%, 1,318 students, 68% FRL); Mary G Montgomery High School (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #211 of 305 statewide, top 69%, 1,965 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools at 65% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,200 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.67%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $185,658
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3781 Pine Meadow Dr	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,000 (+4%)	2mo	$210,000	$105	65
4770 Sharpless Dr E	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,961 (+2%)	1mo	$190,000	$97	63
7575 Monroe Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,800 (-6%)	1mo	$60,000	$33	53
4651 Wellborn Woods Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,677 (-12%)	4mo	$73,000	$44	50
4729 Lott Rd	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,697 (-11%)	20mo	$235,000	$138	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-5,385
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $21,568
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36613

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,616 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $567/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $324

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,206

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $414	-5% $369	+0% $324	+5% $278	+10% $233
Rent	-10% $196	-5% $260	+0% $324	+5% $387	+10% $451
Rate	-1.0pp $404	-0.5pp $364	base $324	+0.5pp $282	+1.0pp $240

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $160,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   status $160,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
5. 2026-04-24
   price $160,000
6. 2026-04-01
   listed $190,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $567 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $656 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: +$89/yr (+$7/mo · 15.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,392
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$567
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,551
• − Management: −$1,551
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $1,305
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$313
• After-tax cash flow: $3,570/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Semmes

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #311
• US rank: #19360

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,082

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (52%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 52% White 44% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.49%
• Current HPI: 208.8677
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-15.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — GCMLS AL
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $160,000 GCMLS AL
• 2026-04-01 Listed $190,000 GCMLS AL

Property tax history

-5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $567 · -11.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.